Fiesta Bowl 2016: Final Odds and Prediction for Ohio State vs. Clemson

Hours separate the globe from the much-anticipated 2016 Fiesta Bowl—a College Football Playoff encounter between the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes and No. 2 Clemson Tigers. 

The Buckeyes sit on an 11-1 record entering the big game, though the team will be seeking a little bit of retribution after not only missing the CFP last year, but also missing out on the Big Ten Championship due to its single loss to Penn State.

Like Alabama, the 12-1 Tigers were one of the most predictable entrants in the CFP behind the arm of Heisman Trophy contender Deshaun Watson. One loss by a single point didn't stop Clemson from winning the ACC title game.

This matchup is much more than a showdown between quarterbacks, thanks to top-tier defenses. That would help explain why, when perusing the game info, Las Vegas doesn't commit to the favorite by much, nor does the over/under boast a gaudy line:

Date: Saturday

Time (ET): 7 p.m.

Location: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Watch: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

Over/Under: 59

Spread: Ohio State (-3)

Again, no surprise here. These teams seem to match up well with each other in most areas.

Ohio State ran the table until mid-October, where a 24-21 road loss to eventual conference champion Penn State sent the team off track. Only slightly, though, as the Buckeyes went on to win out the rest of the way, including making a mockery of then-No. 10 Nebraska in 62-3 fashion and taking down Michigan to close the season.

J.T. Barrett has been the man under center for the Buckeyes through it all, completing 61.9 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns against five interceptions. He landed second in rushing on the team with another 847 yards and nine scores.

With Ezekiel Elliott gone, the Buckeyes turned to Mike Weber on the ground, who rushed for 1,072 yards and nine scores of his own on a 6.1 per-carry average.

For Weber, the strategy against Clemson isn't hard to figure out, as captured by Land of 10's Ben Axelrod:

The Buckeyes might not have another choice. Barrett's completion percentage, yards and touchdown marks are all down from 2014—the last time he acted as full-time starter—despite more attempts this year. Clemson's defense has the talent to keep the Buckeyes on the ground, too.

Speaking of defense, linebacker Chris Worley and others lead a strong unit despite leaking talent to the pro level last year. Only one team surpassed the 26-point mark on the unit, and that honor came by way of a double-overtime affair with Michigan.

As for Clemson, the Tigers went undefeated outside of a one-point loss to Pittsburgh in November, which only came by way of a field goal with less than 10 seconds left in the game.

Offensively, the Tigers look like a team capable of putting the pressure on the Buckeyes. Watson completed a silly 67.6 percent of his passes and accounted for 43 total touchdowns.

As CBSSports.com's Jon Solomon pointed out, Watson takes things into his own hands with everything on the line:

Not that Watson doesn't have help. Lead back Wayne Gallman ran for 1,002 yards and 15 scores on a 5.1 per-carry average. Few can line up with top wideout Mike Williams, who caught 84 passes for 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The real selling point for Clemson's title hopes, though, is an elite defense that tallied 112 tackles for loss and ranks second in the nation with 46 sacks. A huge, fast defensive line able to apply the pressure on every down tends to coerce quarterbacks into mistakes.

The unit has Clemson riding into the showdown with plenty of confidence, hence safety Jadar Johnson drawing plenty of headlines for his comments on Barrett and comparisons to Braxton Miller, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com).

"It was a little different then, because I feel like Braxton Miller can throw better than J.T.," Johnson said. "I don't think (Barrett) throws that well. I'm not saying he can't throw at all. He definitely can put it out there. But I definitely feel like Braxton Miller was a better thrower."

So how does one make a prediction for such a heavyweight matchup?

First, the most important position of all—quarterback.

Ohio State isn't winning this game unless Barrett can make significant headway on the ground and keep Watson off the field. If not, he'll be forced into a more one-dimensional attack through the air in an effort to keep up, which plays right into Clemson's hands.

The Buckeyes haven't inspired much of late, coughing up 11 sacks over their last two outings. Given the strengths of the Clemson defense, this is the worst possible time for the Buckeyes to have problems.

Look for the Clemson defense to make the difference. A unit that has dealt with everything from the spread to option to traditional attacks over a brutal ACC schedule won't blink when facing the Buckeyes. Keep in mind, too, that the roster has plenty of experience on such a stage after making it to the title game last year and almost knocking off Alabama.

Watson will have a big game while his defense keeps Barrett predictable and in check.

Prediction: Clemson 30, Ohio State 24

Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. All betting information courtesy of OddsShark.

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.