
Each CFB Playoff Team's Odds of Winning It All
From 128 schools that began the 2016 college football season with hopes of winning a national championship, we're down to just four. That quartet will gather in Atlanta and Glendale, Arizona on Dec. 31 to play for a spot in the title game Jan. 9 in Tampa, Florida, and each has a legitimate shot to win it all.
But not the same chance to do so. This year's playoffs has a clear favorite, a heavy underdog and two in the middle with fairly equal odds to win a championship. Put it all together and we should have a pair of entertaining semifinals and a strong title game no matter which teams make it through.
Here's a quick look at how all four teams look heading into the semifinals and the likelihood each has to be hoisting the College Football Playoff trophy in a few weeks. The teams are listed alphabetically rather than in order of their title odds.
Alabama Crimson Tide
1 of 4
Playoff matchup: Dec. 31 vs. Washington in Peach Bowl
Alabama (13-0) is the defending national champion and has won 25 consecutive games, tied for the 21st-longest win streak in FBS history and third-best this century. Only Miami (34 in a row from 2000-03) and Florida State (29 from 2012-14) have remained perfect longer, but the Crimson Tide have the talent to challenge those runs beyond just this season.
A key to Alabama's dominance in 2016 was the return of several players from last year's championship team who were draft-eligible but opted to play another season. Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, who won the Bednarik and Nagurski awards given to college's top defender, as well as linebackers Reuben Foster and Tim Williams and tight end O.J. Howard were all highly coveted by NFL teams, yet they put off their pro careers for a chance to repeat as champs.
How good has Alabama been this season? The 15 touchdowns it has allowed in 13 games is one fewer than the number it scored on defense and special teams. The Tide have returned five interceptions for TDs, scooped up five fumbles for scores and brought back four punts.
At 63.4 yards per game, 'Bama's run defense will make it next to impossible for any opponent to move the ball on the ground. Rendering foes one-dimensional has been something it has done all season, and it's resulted in only one game decided by fewer than 10 points.
And we haven't even mentioned the offense, which is averaging more yards per play and game than in 2015. Much of that is due to true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, who in addition to throwing for 2,592 yards and 22 TDs has run for a school QB-record 841 yards and 12 scores.
Odds to win it all: 6-5
Clemson Tigers
2 of 4
Playoff matchup: Dec. 31 vs. Ohio State in Fiesta Bowl
A finalist last season, Clemson (12-1) is hoping to continue a six-year trend in which it's finished the same or higher in the rankings than it started. Since the Tigers were second in the preseason Associated Press poll, that means all that's left is to win the championship in order to go up a spot.
And the Tigers have the talent to do so, particularly on offense, where Heisman Trophy runner-up Deshaun Watson leads a power-packed attack that's averaging 40.2 points per game. But that same unit has turned it over 24 times, including 15 interceptions from Watson, and that's caused Clemson to have many more close games than expected.
Clemson is 6-1 in games decided by one score, including the ACC title game win over Virginia Tech and victories over ranked Auburn and Louisville teams. Its lone loss was at home to Pittsburgh, a game that saw Watson throw for a school-record 580 yards but also three picks.
The Tigers defense lost the majority of its starters from the team that fell by five to Alabama in the national final, but it hasn't been a rebuilding project. They've allowed only 18.4 points per game, 12th-best in FBS, and the 4.61 yards allowed per play is tied for sixth.
Clemson matches up well with Ohio State, but it will ultimately depend on how well it takes care of the ball. Twenty of its 24 giveaways have come in those one-score games.
Odds to win it all: 4-1
Ohio State Buckeyes
3 of 4
Playoff matchup: Dec. 31 vs. Clemson in Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) is the outlier in this year's playoff qualifiers and the first of its kind in that the Buckeyes did not win their conference. They didn't even win the Big Ten's East Division by virtue of an October loss at Penn State, which went on to beat Wisconsin for the league championship, but the Buckeyes' overall body of work was deemed superior to PSU as well as rival Michigan.
Now OSU is out to prove it deserved that bid despite not meeting the unofficial qualifying criteria of being a conference champ. It's not dissimilar to two years ago, when after losing to Virginia Tech early in the 2014 season the Buckeyes went on a tear and earned the No. 4 seed then blew past Alabama and Oregon for the first-ever playoff title.
Other than coach Urban Meyer and offensive lineman Pat Elflein, there isn't much those OSU teams have in common. Quarterback J.T. Barrett had gotten hurt before the playoffs, but he was integral in the regular-season run as he was in navigating this season. Barrett has accounted for 33 touchdowns this year and 100 for his career.
Being able to get past Clemson will require a defensive effort similar to what OSU has put forth most of the season. The Buckeyes allow 14.2 points per game, which ranks third in the country, and their turnover margin of plus-16 is third-best in FBS. Seven of the 19 passes they've intercepted have been returned for TDs, including three by safety Malik Hooker.
Odds to win it all: 3-1
Washington Huskies
4 of 4
Playoff matchup: Dec. 31 vs. Alabama in Peach Bowl
Someone has to be the underdog, so it's only fitting that the team with the worst championship odds in this year's playoffs are the ones with a canine mascot. The Huskies (13-1) are also the newcomer to the playoff party while the other three semifinalists have a combined seven appearances including this year.
Washington has spent much of this season dealing with criticism that it wasn't deserving of a shot at the national title because its non-conference schedule was extremely weak and some of the Pac-12's traditional powers weren't as good this year. The Huskies have responded to these sleights by averaging 44.5 points per game, fourth-best in the country and tops among the playoff teams, while allowing no more than 28 points in any contest.
By far the youngest team in the playoffs, with nine freshmen or sophomores among the projected starters, that youth means Washington lacks in experience but not in talent. Quarterback Jake Browning has thrown 42 touchdown passes, second-most in FBS, twice throwing six in a game and tallying eight total TDs against Oregon.
Washington's defense can't be discounted, either, particularly a pass defense that has registered 12 interceptions in the past five games. But the Huskies have only faced one team that runs its QB as much as Alabama does with Jalen Hurts, and they allowed 176 yards and two TDs to Arizona's Brandon Dawkins in an overtime win in September.
Odds to win it all: 10-1
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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