Peach Bowl 2016: Factors That Will Decide Washington vs. Alabama Playoff
The 2016-17 College Football Playoff is nearly upon us. There are four teams remaining in the hunt for a national title, and all four will be in action on Saturday, December 31.
The first of the two New Year's Eve playoff games is the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. This rousing contest will feature No. 1-ranked Alabama against fourth-ranked Washington.
On paper, these are two very similar teams. Each squad features a quality defense—Alabama allows just 11.8 points per game, while Washington allows 17.2—and both have regularly dominated their competition.
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The Crimson Tide roll into the playoff with a perfect 13-0 record. The Huskies have lost just once, to a red-hot USC team.
Yet Alabama is considered a heavy favorite here—OddsShark.com has the Tide as just over two-touchdown favorites.
This is largely due to Alabama's recent run of dominance and the team's stiff SEC and non-conference schedule. USA Today ranked Alabama 14th in strength of schedule, while Washington falls at 38th.
Fortunately for us football fans, games aren't played on paper. The Peach Bowl will be decided on the field, and it should be an entertaining affair.
There are a variety of factors that ultimately will determine the outcome, and we're going to examine some of the top ones today.
2016 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
What: CFP game between No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Washington
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta
When: 3:00 p.m. ET, December 31
National TV: ESPN
Factors to Watch
Jake Browning and a Wide-Open Offense
Washington quarterback Jake Browning has the talent and the offensive command to take over most football games—and the Peach Bowl should be no different. Browning has already thrown for 3,280 yards with 42 touchdowns and just seven interceptions.
Browning and the rest of Washington's explosive offense have the potential to spread out defenses and create mismatches all over the field. Washington's ability to complement Browning with a stout rushing attack—the Huskies rank 27th in rushing yards—helps provide enough balance to prevent Alabama from homing in on the quarterback.
While Browning probably hasn't faced a defense like the one Alabama fields before, he should still be able to find some holes in the unit.
Browning, for his part, appears confident that he can, at least, per Christian Caple of the News Tribune:
"I think we’re looking for advantages no matter who we’re playing. I don’t think we’re a team that’s going to come out and throw the ball every play, or come out and run the ball every play. We stay balanced and do our thing. They’re good, but you can’t let a good team get you away from what got you there. So we’re going to do our deal. We’ll probably have some different tweaks here and there, just like we do every other week. But you can’t let a good team get you out of your rhythm that got you there.
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If Browning can find holes in the defense (and protect the football, of course), he'll put a lot of the pressure back on Alabama's offense.
Alabama's Running Game vs. Washington's Defensive Front
If the Huskies put pressure on Alabama to score, the Tide are going to find themselves in a situation they have rarely been in this season: forced into a scoring duel.
This is where Washington's talented defensive front is going to come into play. Alabama bases much of its offense on the running game, and the team currently ranks 14th in the nation with an average of 245 yards rushing per game.
Washington, however, has proved to be quite capable of limiting opposing rushing attacks. The Huskies rank 18th in the country with just 123.5 yards rushing allowed per game.
If the Huskies can successfully limit Alabama's ground attack on New Year's Eve, the pressure will then translate over to Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Hurts has been a quality quarterback in his own right—he has 2,592 yards passing with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions—but he hasn't been called upon to beat a team through the air very often. If he has to do so against the Huskies, he'll be doing it against a defense that allows an average of just 192.6 yards passing per game (22nd in the country).
Turnovers
No matter which teams are playing, turnovers can be the great equalizer, and both teams have often utilized turnovers to help achieve victory this season.
The Crimson Tide have scored 123 points from opponent turnovers, while the Huskies have scored 112.
However, the Huskies have been better when it comes to limiting their own turnovers. Washington hasn't yet had a red-zone turnover and leads the country with a turnover margin of plus-21.
Alabama's turnover margin is a mere plus-five.
If this trend continues on New Year's Eve, the Huskies will have a legitimate opportunity of pulling off a massive upset. The Huskies will still have to play a virtually flawless game to win, but a strong turnover advantage will certainly help.
As is so often the case, the team that makes the fewest mistakes should be the team that moves on to the national title game.
Statistics courtesy CFBstats.com unless otherwise noted.
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