Projecting the Results for a Hypothetical 8-Team College Football Playoff
On Saturday, we'll get to watch the third edition of the College Football Playoff, a four-team format that is facing its first real bout of criticism this year due to how the selection committee went about picking the semifinalists. Most notable was the fact that winning a conference championship (including a league title game), which in 2014 and 2015 was a major criteria, no longer seemed to matter as much.
Just ask Penn State, which gets to watch an Ohio State team it beat on the way to the Big Ten title battle for a national championship while it got shut out.
And as is the case any time there's a disagreement on something, part of the discussion turned to changing it, with the prevailing thread being that the playoffs should get expanded from four to eight teams. But rather than debate the merits and shortcomings of such a move, we've just gone ahead and pretended that happened for 2016.
Now it's time to see how the games play out and who wins it all. Follow along as we first select the field and then crown a hypothetical eight-team playoff champion.
How the Field Was Selected
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Time to put on our selection committee hat and put together the best eight-team lineup possible. That means deciding whether there are automatic bids or if the eight "best" teams get into the playoffs.
It's a little of both, as we've picked the conference champions from all five power leagues (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) and the highest-rated Group of Five champ and then gave the final two spots to the highest-ranked non-champions. To make things easier, we used the final rankings from the playoff committee as our barometer.
With that in mind, here are the pairings we ended up getting:
- No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 8 Western Michigan (Sugar Bowl)
- No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (Peach Bowl)
- No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Michigan (Cotton Bowl)
- No. 4 Washington vs. No. 5 Penn State (Fiesta Bowl)
The New Year's Six bowls get to host both the quarterfinals and semifinals—which means the winners will meet in the Orange and Rose Bowls—while the national championship remains at the site of where the four-team playoff would end in Tampa, Florida. The quarterfinal locations were chosen based on how best to provide the higher-seeded team with a geographical advantage whenever possible.
Now it's time to play the games…
Quarterfinal No. 1: Alabama vs. Western Michigan
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It felt like every team in the country, regardless of talent and success, at one point or another had someone in the crowd holding up a "We Want 'Bama" sign. Truth is, none of them really wanted this for fear that it would result in a thorough beating, as has been the case for most of the Crimson Tide's last 25 opponents.
Now upstart Western Michigan gets its chance to shock the world, the "row the boat" on the way to one of the biggest upsets in college football history. Or, more likely, the Broncos' unbeaten run comes to an end at the hands of a vastly superior opponent.
No one can run the ball on 'Bama, which takes out the tandem of junior Jarvion Franklin (1,300 yards, 12 touchdowns) and sophomore Jamauri Bogan (865 yards, eight scores) and puts more pressure on senior quarterback Zach Terrell to come through. Terrell has 32 TDs with just three interceptions this season, and he has the most prolific receiver in FBS history—senior Corey Davis—to throw to, but that's assuming he has time to do so.
Alabama has recorded 45 sacks along with 80 quarterback hurries, and when it doesn't get to the passer, it has managed to still make bad things happen. The result has been 10 defensive TDs, four fewer than the defense has allowed in 2016.
Western Michigan has a good defense, but not good enough to contain Alabama QB Jalen Hurts or the Tide's several bruising ball-carriers.
Prediction: Alabama 40, Western Michigan 13
Quarterfinal No. 2: Clemson vs. Oklahoma
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Prior to meeting in the Russell Athletic Bowl in 2014, these teams hadn't played in 25 years. Now Clemson and Oklahoma are becoming annual foes, as this will be their third contest in as many seasons, including last year's Orange Bowl semifinal game.
Clemson won those previous two games, and as the higher seed, it stands to reason they'd come out on top again, right? If only it were that easy.
Oklahoma enters the playoff on a nine-game win streak after a 1-2 start, bulldozing through the Big 12 by an average of 18.8 points. That includes late-season wins over ranked West Virginia and Oklahoma State teams by a combined score of 94-48.
It's a good thing the Sooners can score—at 44.7 points per game, they're the highest-scoring team in the playoff—because this is going to be a shootout. Clemson averages 40.2 points per game and has scored at least 35 in six straight.
Avoiding mistakes is key for Clemson, as the Tigers have turned it over 24 times, with 20 of those coming in their seven one-score games. Oklahoma takes better care of the ball but also isn't as adept at forcing turnovers, so this could be a non-factor unless Deshaun Watson forces throws.
He may not need to, though, since Oklahoma's pass defense hasn't made many stops this year, and its run defense has allowed 817 yards in the last three games.
Prediction: Clemson 43, Oklahoma 33
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Quarterfinal No. 3: Ohio State vs. Michigan
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Rematches are never ideal, but there are always exceptions. One of those is that the first go-around was so spectacular that nobody (other than maybe the players and coaches) wanted it to end. Another is that the teams are bitter rivals, and the emotion that comes from their meetings is more than enough to fuel an extra matchup within a season.
Ohio State-Michigan checks all the boxes, and this year's clash on Nov. 26 was among the best in their long and storied history against each other. OSU pulled out a 30-27 win in double overtime, but not before some controversy thanks to a 4th-and-inches conversion that required replay and prompted a slew of conspiracy theories as well as Zapruder-style footage of various camera angles.
Just the lead-up to this game is reason enough to have it happen again, with coaches Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer getting multiple weeks to game-plan each other and trade barbs in the media. And that should make for another classic, though it will be tough to top the original.
Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight will make great use of the extra time off to allow his shoulder injury to heal. He was 23-of-36 for 219 yards and two touchdowns against OSU, but he also threw two interceptions, one returned for a TD. But just as important will be the Wolverines finding a way to run on the Buckeyes after averaging 2.12 yards per carry last time out.
OSU had its worst per-play yardage against Michigan, averaging just 4.02, but this time it won't forget about handing off to Curtis Samuel. That will open things up for J.T. Barrett, who won't need to fight for a few extra inches to keep the game alive this time.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Michigan 20
Quarterfinal No. 4: Washington vs. Penn State
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The champions from the Big Ten and Pac-12 traditionally meet in the Rose Bowl, but the playoffs have tossed that custom aside. We could have pitted these teams in Pasadena, California, instead of the Fiesta Bowl, with Washington still getting its deserved geographical advantage, but opted to keep the Rose Bowl as a semifinal locale, which puts this quarterfinal in a dome in Arizona.
Penn State just played indoors in its last game, which—like so many of its wins during a nine-game streak—involved a second-half rally. The Nittany Lions were down big to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship only to erupt after halftime. Washington surged in the second half to beat Colorado in the Pac-12 Championship but didn't need to come from behind.
Quarterback play will dominate this matchup, with Washington sophomore Jake Browning and Penn State's Trace McSorley coming in with a combined 67 touchdowns. Browning has 42 of those, including two occasions when he's thrown six in a game, while McSorley has eight in his last two contests and has averaged at least 11.1 yards per attempt in four of his last five.
Where Washington's edge will play out, though, is in how it defends the pass. The Huskies have intercepted 19 passes, with 12 coming in the last five games, three more than PSU has managed all season.
Prediction: Washington 30, Penn State 24
Semifinal No. 1: Alabama vs. Washington
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Geographical advantage won't matter as much in this one as the disadvantage that comes with playing more than 3,000 miles from home. This matchup would be held at the Orange Bowl in Miami, where Washington last played in 2001 (where it lost 65-7 to Miami).
Alabama made quick work of Western Michigan in the semifinals and didn't have to use its starters much in the second half, and it will be the fresher team. Combine that with the travel the Huskies have to deal with, and the Crimson Tide will jump out to an early lead and keep a comfortable edge all game long.
After having to deal with Penn State and its fondness for throwing deep, Washington will contend with the mobility of Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts. That didn't work out so well the one time this season the Huskies faced a running passer, that being Arizona's Brandon Dawkins, who went for 167 yards and two touchdowns in a Washington overtime win.
The Tide have made plenty of great quarterbacks look mediocre this season, and that doesn't bode well for Jake Browning, whose two worst games this season came in the Huskies' biggest contests (the loss to USC and the Pac-12 title win over Colorado).
Prediction: Alabama 29, Washington 16
Semifinal No. 2: Clemson vs. Ohio State
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The Rose Bowl makes its appearance in this expanded playoff as a semifinal site, like it did after the 2014 season when Oregon blasted defending champion Florida State on its way to the final. Clemson has never played in Pasadena, while Ohio State has been there more than a dozen times but not since 2010.
Their last meeting, in the 2014 Orange Bowl, went down to the wire, and the same should happen this time around. The same coaches are in place, but few of the players Dabo Swinney and Urban Meyer had at their disposal then are still around, so it'll be a clean slate.
The current crop of Tigers and Buckeyes are among the best each program has ever had, and several have plenty of playoff experience. Clemson has more of that, though, having made the national championship a season ago behind quarterback Deshaun Watson and most of its offensive stars, but that familiarity won't prevent Watson from falling into old habits and turning the ball over.
Ohio State's J.T. Barrett has been far less mistake-prone and will make the most of his first playoff experience. He was dealing with a broken ankle when the Buckeyes won it all two years ago.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Clemson 34
National Championship: Alabama vs. Ohio State
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This is the third year of the playoff system in college football, and it's only fitting that the winners of the first two editions get to meet for a championship. The winner can truly call itself the most successful playoff team in FBS history, something Alabama can lay claim to right now by being the only team to make every playoff and as defending champion with what would be a 27-game winning streak heading into this matchup.
And if not for a loss to Ohio State in the 2015 Sugar Bowl, the Crimson Tide could be working on a three-peat. That makes this a revenge game, something Alabama coach Nick Saban has dominated during his career.
According to CBSSports.com's Jon Solomon, Saban is 19-3 against teams that beat him in the previous meeting. That number includes a win over Ole Miss in September that atoned for losses to the Rebels in 2014 and 2015, one of only three schools to beat Saban-coached teams in consecutive meetings.
If Urban Meyer were able to knock off the Tide for a second straight time, it would also help his case for being the greatest coach in college football, a debate that has only two real active candidates in him and Saban. But it's hard to bet against Alabama when it has shown no real weaknesses this season.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Ohio State 21
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by cfbstats unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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