Fiesta Bowl 2016: Factors That Will Decide Ohio State vs. Clemson Playoff
There may not be a closer matchup on this year's postseason slate than the 2016 Fiesta Bowl, as Clemson and Ohio State both possess College Football Playoff experience and a vast amount of talent.
Not much separates either squad, but there are a few key areas where each team must excel to have a chance to advance to the national championship game.
Let us take a look at these factors, as well as the schedule for this big-time matchup.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Saturday, Dec. 31 | University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona | Clemson vs. Ohio State | 7 p.m. | ESPN |
Turnover Battle Crucial
Clemson has arguably the best offense in college football. With Heisman Trophy runner-up Deshaun Watson throwing for 3,914 yards and 37 touchdowns, Wayne Gallman rushing for over 1,000 yards with 15 scores and Mike Williams being a dominant receiver with 84 catches for 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns, the Tigers can be downright unstoppable. Yet, their greatest obstacle this season has been themselves.
The team is tied for 68th nationally in turnover margin with an even mark despite ranking 20th with 24 takeaways. Watson threw an astounding 15 picks on the year, including four games with multiple interceptions. Seven of those interceptions came in Clemson territory, which could provide a critical shift in momentum and field position should that happen against Ohio State.
On the contrary, the Buckeyes thrived on turnovers this season. They rank third nationally in turnover margin at plus-16 while being tied for 12th with 25 forced turnovers. By comparison, J.T. Barrett only has five interceptions on the season to Watson's high number, but Ohio State runs a more conservative passing offense, as Barrett only topped 300 yards through the air once this year.
Both of these programs are within the top 15 nationally in scoring offense, so taking care of the ball and limiting the opponent's possessions will be of the utmost importance. Clemson has yet to prove it can be trusted to do that this season, as Watson's questionable decision-making could be costly against a Ohio State secondary that includes a pair of potential NFL draft first-rounders in Gareon Conley and Malik Hooker.
Can Barrett Find Consistency with His Arm?
Barrett undoubtedly performed well in 2016, throwing for 2,428 yards and 24 touchdowns while rushing for 847 yards and nine scores. However, there were several games this season where the junior displayed some shortcomings as a passer.
Against some of the team's better opponents in conference play, Barrett struggled mightily with his consistency through the air. Take a look at his numbers in these notable matchups:
| Indiana | 93 | 1 | 42.9 | 137 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | 226 | 1 | 58.6 | 92 | 2 |
| Penn State | 245 | 1 | 65.1 | 26 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 290 | 4 | 68.4 | 39 | 0 |
| Michigan State | 86 | 1 | 45.5 | 105 | 0 |
| Michigan | 124 | 0 | 46.9 | 125 | 1 |
What stands out is Barrett's rushing numbers in most of these contests. Even when he was struggling to create much in the passing game, Barrett used his legs effectively to lead his team to wins. Yet, he was foiled for just 26 yards on 17 carries in the loss at Penn State, as Barrett was unable to pull out a victory with his arm.
Clemson will surely force Barrett to beat it with the passing game, as Ben Boulware, Dexter Lawrence and Carlos Watkins form a tremendous front seven that can control the line of scrimmage and shut down Ohio State's running attack. If that becomes the case, Barrett could have a hard time making plays against Clemson's secondary.
Ohio State does not have an established threat at receiver, as Curtis Samuel leads the team with 65 catches and 822 yards while largely coming out of the backfield. Noah Brown is second on the Buckeyes with just 30 receptions, so Ohio State's receiving depth could be a concern if Samuel is unable to find space. Barrett also does not possess the ability to push the ball downfield like Watson, which limits what Ohio State can do vertically.
Barrett is going to need to push for 300 passing yards to keep up with a Clemson team that can score in bunches. Whether or not he can do so is up in the air, which makes winning the turnover battle and playing smart football even more important for the Buckeyes.
Winning on Third Down Is a Must
Clemson and Ohio State can both score, so it is imperative for each defense to force the opposition off the field whenever possible.
The Tigers are ninth in total defense at 313.9 yards allowed per game, but they excel on third-down defense by holding opponents to just under a 30 percent success rate in such situations. The Buckeyes are no slouches, either, coming in at fifth nationally in total defense with 282.3 yards allowed per outing. They also hold opponents to a 30.8 percent mark on third down, good for 10th in the country.
So who will be able to extend drives in the Fiesta Bowl? Well, that seems to favor Clemson, but only slightly.
The team is fifth in the nation with an impressive 51.5 percent success rate on third down, and that comes with an extra game played over the Buckeyes as Ohio State did not compete in a conference title game. Ohio State is still excellent in this area as well, ranking 10th nationally at 48.6 percent.
In its lone loss, Ohio State finished below its season average when it went 9-of-22 on third down. As for Clemson, every game—other than a 35-13 win at Wake Forest—that it failed to top 50 percent on third down was decided by single digits.
This situation is obviously important for the success of both teams, and the margin between the two is slim. Clemson gets a thin edge here, but Ohio State could also thrive on third down if it can avoid getting backed up on early downs.
Statistics are courtesy of NCAA.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
