Best Bets for 2016-17 College Football Bowl Season
Need a little extra scratch to make it through the holidays, or to pay for all those generous gifts you've purchased for family and friends? Have no fear, bowl season is here for those who enjoy putting a little something on the last batch of college football games from 2016-17.
Just like any week during the regular season, the sheer volume of bowl games makes some lines juicier than others. The oddsmakers, as accurate as they tend to be, can't possibly nail down the perfect point spread for all 41 bowls that are on tap between Saturday and Jan. 2, and thus a few lines end up standing out as worth exploiting.
We've picked out seven such bowl games where the spread (per OddsShark) seems good, either for the favorite or underdog.
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico (-7) vs. UTSA
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When: Saturday, Dec. 17
While the biggest bowls tend to be played in NFL stadiums and other venues that aren't normally used by a college team, the same can't be said for most of the lower-tier games. This creates the opportunity for a participant to play on its home field, and it seems to happen at least once every bowl season.
In 2016, there are three such games, including the New Mexico Bowl, which has become New Mexico's unofficial destination when playing in the postseason.
The Lobos have appeared in three other bowl games since 2006 and each was in Albuquerque, including last year against Arizona. Though they lost that one, they should have a distinct advantage playing in front of what figures to be a small yet Lobo-friendly crowd. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners will be playing in their first-ever bowl game, so even though they will likely draw a fair number of fans, their overall lack of postseason experience will make them even more of an underdog than the spread indicates.
And we haven't even gotten to the teams themselves. New Mexico (8-4) led the FBS in rushing this season, gaining 360.9 yards per game. UTSA (6-6) was 52nd in run defense and allowed at least 150 rushing yards eight times in 2016.
The pick: New Mexico (-7)
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU (-9) vs. Wyoming
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When: Wednesday, Dec. 21
As an independent, BYU has worked out agreements to play in various bowl games for the near future regardless of what its record is. As long as the Cougars (8-4) are bowl-eligible, they'll get that slot, and this year they secured their place in the Poinsettia Bowl in mid-November during the second of four straight wins to end the regular season.
It was kind of an anticlimactic end to a 2016 season in which BYU faced six power conference teams in its first seven games, going 3-3, then finished with four opponents who were a combined 15-22 with six of those victories coming against an FCS school.
Wyoming's most recent games have been far more engaging, including its home wins over Boise State and San Diego State to win the Mountain West's Mountain Division and then its narrow loss to SDSU in the MWC title game. The Cowboys (8-5) were 2-10 a year ago and now play their first bowl game since 2011.
BYU deserves to be favored based on who it has played, though looking back, those wins over Arizona, Michigan State and Mississippi State aren't so impressive anymore. The greater takeaway is that seven of BYU's first eight games were decided by seven or fewer points, so it's a bit ambitious to expect the Cougars to win a game by more than nine.
The pick: Wyoming (+9)
Cactus Bowl: Baylor vs. Boise State (-7.5)
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When: Tuesday, Dec. 27
If a time comes that Boise State builds a Hall-of-Fame-type facility on campus, it may end up having its own wing dedicated to the football team's achievements in Arizona. Three of the Broncos' biggest wins in program history came in the Phoenix area, those being the Fiesta Bowl victories they earned after the 2006, 2009 and 2014 seasons.
The first of those was the most significant, as Boise was one of the first so-called "BCS Buster" teams from outside the power conferences to earn a bid to a major game. The Broncos rallied to knock off Oklahoma in a game that featured several trick plays, including a Statue of Liberty play on the game-winning two-point conversion in overtime.
Since then, Boise (10-2) has made a point of playing its best when given the opportunity to take down a big name. Baylor (6-6) still counts as such even though it enters with a six-game losing streak and every one of its coaches will likely look elsewhere for work after the season as new head coach Matt Rhule builds his staff.
The pick: Boise State (-7.5)
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Belk Bowl: Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech (-7)
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When: Thursday, Dec. 29
Though the long break between the end of the regular season and a bowl game tends to eliminate any semblance of momentum, it's hard not to notice the pattern Arkansas has put together for much of 2016. After starting 3-0, the Razorbacks (7-5) then proceeded to trade wins and losses the rest of the year.
No, seriously. Arkansas hasn't won or lost consecutive games since September, and it's not like this was expected based on who it faced. According to OddsShark, four of its wins came as an underdog while the regular-season finale loss at Missouri came when it was an eight-point favorite.
So if this pattern continues, that means the Hogs shouldn't just be expected to cover in the Belk Bowl but may end up winning outright. Virginia Tech (9-4) will have something to say about that, having pushed Clemson to the limit in the ACC title game, though two of the Hokies' losses this season came when they were double-digit favorites.
The pick: Arkansas (+7)
Liberty Bowl: Georgia (-1) vs. TCU
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When: Friday, Dec. 30
When the matchup was first announced on Dec. 4, TCU opened as a slight favorite according to OddsShark. Since then Georgia has become the favorite, swinging the spread a noticeable 2.5 points in less than two weeks.
Much of this movement is an adjustment to who bettors are siding with, though it can also be considered a market correction. Though the Bulldogs (7-5) struggled quite often in coach Kirby Smart's first season, particularly on offense, and lost their regular-season finale against rival Georgia Tech, they look to be in much better shape overall than TCU.
The Horned Frogs (6-6) lost four of their final six and looked pretty listless in those final two defeats, both at home. They scored six points apiece against Oklahoma State and Kansas State while managing a combined 93 in November road wins over Baylor and Texas.
TCU looks like a team playing out the string while Georgia is trying to end on a high note and give itself something to build on for 2017.
The pick: Georgia (-1)
Arizona Bowl: Air Force (-13.5) vs. South Alabama
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When: Friday, Dec. 30
At 14 points, the opening line for the Arizona Bowl was tied with the Peach Bowl (Alabama/Washington) for the largest spread of the bowl season. It's now a solid second since Alabama improved to 15-16.5-point favorites, depending on the oddsmaker.
What hasn't changed is the potential for a blowout. Air Force (9-3) enters on a five-game win streak that includes victories over bowl teams like Army, Boise State and Colorado State. During that streak, it continued to show a dominant run game. The Falcons average 322.8 yards per game on the ground, which ranks third in the FBS.
In contrast, South Alabama (6-6) is only in a bowl game because of a hurricane that didn't come anywhere close to its campus but still impacted its schedule. The Jaguars were supposed to visit LSU on Nov. 19, but because LSU and Florida needed to reschedule a postponed SEC game for that date, they ended up getting paired with Florida's opponent (Presbyterian) that was scheduled for that date. That gave South Alabama two games against FCS schools, and those two victories helped it get the necessary six. It likely would have finished at 5-7 if it had to play LSU.
South Alabama also happens to be pretty bad against the run, allowing 212.1 yards per game. There's also the fact this game is being played in Tucson, a city that includes an Air Force base, so the crowd figures to lean heavily in the Falcons' direction.
The pick: Air Force (-13.5)
Cotton Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin (-7.5)
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When: Monday, Jan. 2
Had Wisconsin managed to hold onto its lead against Penn State in the Big Ten championship game earlier this month, the Badgers probably still wouldn't have been able to slide into the playoffs. But they would have earned another trip to the Rose Bowl, where they played for three consecutive years from 2011-13 and lost each by a combined 15 points.
A chance at redemption will have to wait for another year, as Wisconsin (10-3) instead gets paired up with the only non-power conference team in a major bowl game. That doesn't exactly have the same oomph to it as playing in the Rose Bowl.
Don't tell Western Michigan (13-0) that. The Broncos are in the midst of their best season ever, one that began with wins at Big Ten schools Northwestern and Illinois and continued with their first Mid-American Conference title since 1988.
Western Michigan's storybook season—which might include an unexpected twist, as much-coveted coach P.J. Fleck has yet to be scooped up by a bigger school and thus could stick around—is looking for a great final chapter. A third win over a Big Ten school and a perfect record would do the trick.
The pick: Western Michigan (+7.5)
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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