Fiesta Bowl 2016: Latest Odds, Prediction for Ohio State vs. Clemson Playoff
College football's bowl slate is set, with all eyes looking ahead to the CFP semifinals on New Year's Eve with the Peach and Fiesta Bowls.
After the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 4 Washington Huskies in Atlanta, the Fiesta Bowl will take center stage when the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes meet the ACC champion No. 3 Clemson Tigers from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
While the game is still three weeks away, Vegas has released its odds for the game, courtesy of OddsShark.com:
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Saturday, Dec. 31 | 7 p.m. | No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson | Ohio State -3.5 |
Prediction
Ohio State defeats Clemson 28-24
There is no disputing that Clemson is one of the most powerful offensive units in the nation given its array of weapons at each position.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson might have moved away from the rushing aspect of his game, recording 529 yards compared to 1,105 last year, but he's developed into one of the top passers in the nation with 3,914 yards and 37 touchdowns.
His main target has been Mike Williams, who is one of the elite big-play wide receivers in the country with 84 catches for 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns:
The rushing duties have fallen to running back Wayne Gallman in the process, and he's taken full advantage of the chance. With just 196 carries, Gallman put up 1,002 yards for an average of 5.1 yards per rush while adding 15 scores.
Behind them, Clemson has averaged 40.2 points per game, which creates a difficult number to outscore for the opposition. But the Tigers have been inconsistent this season, and this was embodied during the ACC title game against Virginia Tech.
After a fast start that saw Clemson take a 35-14 lead with 5:50 to go in the third quarter, both sides of the ball seemingly fell asleep, allowing Virginia Tech to roar back and bring the game to within one possession with three touchdowns on three straight drives:
That's not going to fly against an Ohio State team that put up very similar numbers to Clemson while playing in a tougher conference:
| 332.6 (7th) | Pass Yards/Game | 221.2 (77th) |
| 173.1 (69th) | Rush Yards/Game | 258.3 (9th) |
| 40.2 (14th) | Points For | 42.7 (9th) |
| 18.4 (12th) | Points Against | 14.2 (3rd) |
Unlike Virginia Tech and many other ACC opponents, Ohio State's stout defense isn't going to afford Clemson the same type of opportunities to run up the score during the early portions of the game.
The Buckeyes defense is led by a pair of gifted linebackers in Raekwon McMillan, who leads the team in tackles with 87, and Jerome Baker, who has burst onto the scene in his sophomore year with 79 total tackles and 3.5 sacks:
Those two linebackers are going to be the defenders that will shadow Watson and limit his ability to extend plays with his legs. When Gallman gets the ball, their athleticism and play recognition will be vital in cutting off his open avenues to run.
Suppressing Clemson's offense in any way will take pressure off of Ohio State's run-centric offense that relies heavily on quarterback J.T. Barrett, running back Mike Weber and playmaker Curtis Samuel.
Barrett has accounted for 3,275 total yards between the aerial and rushing attack, while Weber has led all runners with 1,072 yards. Samuel has been a vital asset in both aspects of the offense as he's added 704 rushing yards and 822 receiving yards on his way to 15 touchdowns.
With an 11-1 record and an average margin of victory of 31.4 points per game, a more consistent Ohio State team will just outlast the Tigers to clinch a trip to the national title game.
Stats courtesy of ESPN.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
