College Football Playoff Championship 2016: Odds and Predictions for Matchups
The selection committee ended the drama Sunday, announcing the four teams for this year's College Football Playoff.
No matter what the committee decided, a number of college football fans were going to be disappointed. Still, the reveal delivered few surprises, with the Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers, Ohio State Buckeyes and Washington Huskies claiming the top four seeds.
Below is a look at the full playoff rankings and a prediction for each of the two semifinal games.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Semifinals Schedule
| Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | 3 p.m. | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington | Alabama (-14) |
| PlayStation Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | 7 p.m. | No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State | Ohio State (-3) |
Semifinals Preview
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Fans of Clemson and Ohio State were first and foremost happy to see their favorite teams in the playoff. The fact the Tigers and the Buckeyes avoided Alabama in the semifinals was an added bonus.
As ESPN CollegeFootball tweeted, Washington will have its hands full with the Crimson Tide:
Huskies head coach Chris Petersen maintained a sense of humor with his team's draw, per the Seattle Times' Adam Jude: "Fortunately, the [Seattle] Seahawks are here in town. Maybe they'll scrimmage us to get us ready for [Alabama]."
As with most Alabama games, there's a creeping sense of inevitability about the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. While Washington is a deserving playoff team, the Huskies don't match up well with the Crimson Tide.
Alabama is allowing 63.4 yards per game on the ground and two yards per carry, both of which are best in the country. If Washington is unable to count on Myles Gaskin, then it spells major trouble for the Huskies. In their only loss this year, Gaskin ran for only 51 yards and averaged 3.4 yards per carry against the USC Trojans.
Jake Browning has thrown for 3,280 yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year, but the Trojans also showed the sophomore quarterback can struggle when faced with a consistent pass rush.
"That's what you have to do with a great quarterback like Jake," USC head coach Clay Helton said in November, per the Orange County Register's Joey Kaufman. "You have to be able to get him off his spot and disrupt his timing. That's of critical importance if you want to be effective."
Alabama is third in team sacks (45.0), and the Huskies' offensive line is 82nd in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders, which is a toxic combination for Browning.
Washington's defense could be an equalizer. Unlike in recent years, Alabama doesn't have one standout running back who sets the tone for the entire offense. Although Damien Harris may get to the level of Derrick Henry, Trent Richardson or Mark Ingram at some point, he's not there yet.
The Huskies have 19 interceptions as a team, tied for fourth-most in FBS, and they're tied for third in fumbles recovered (14). Jalen Hurts has exceeded expectations, but he's still a true freshman. Rattling him early could force him into making mistakes later in the game.
The LSU Tigers nearly upset the Tide despite gaining just 125 total yards, so it would be foolish to write off Washington's chances entirely. The Huskies will keep it closer than the oddsmakers expect, but they'll still fall short in the semifinals.
Prediction: Alabama 21, Washington 17
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State and Clemson are essentially two sides of the same coin. Below is a look at where the Buckeyes and Tigers rank in total offense and total defense, as well as Football Outsiders' S&P+ metrics:
| Ohio State | 480 YPG (21st) | 282 (4th) | 27.6 (3rd) | 39.2 (12th) | 13.1 (3rd) |
| Clemson | 506 (13th) | 314 (9th) | 22.7 (4th) | 39.4 (11th) | 16.1 (6th) |
As strange as it may sound, the Buckeyes may want to make Deshaun Watson win this game. After all, the junior quarterback threw for 580 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in the Tigers' only loss this year.
Clemson's fortunes in 2016 have been tied more directly to Wayne Gallman's success on the ground. He carried the ball 18 times for 36 yards—while still scoring three touchdowns—in the defeat to Pittsburgh.
In general, Gallman's numbers are lower in closer games, per ESPN.com:
| Final Margin 0-7 Points | 112 | 458 | 4.1 | 24 | 8 |
| Final Margin 15-Plus Points | 84 | 544 | 6.5 | 59 | 7 |
To put that difference into perspective, averaging 6.5 yards per carry would be tied for 33rd in the nation, while 4.1 yards per carry would be good enough for 234th among the 303 qualified players.
Should Watson throw 30-plus attempts, he and Clemson would be playing into Ohio State's hands. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in opponent passing efficiency (91.4), and they're tied for first in yards allowed per attempt (5.4).
For Clemson, the strategy is largely the same. J.T. Barrett continues to be a dynamic threat on the ground, but he is a shell of his freshman self as a passer.
Last year, Barrett's problems were in part a result of sharing starting duties with Cardale Jones. As the unquestioned starter in 2016, Barrett has shown little improvement:
| 2014 | 203/314 | 64.7 | 2,834 | 9.0 | 34 | 10 | 169.8 |
| 2015 | 93/147 | 63.3 | 992 | 6.7 | 11 | 4 | 139.2 |
| 2016 | 214/346 | 61.9 | 2.428 | 7.0 | 24 | 5 | 140.8 |
Michigan did a great job of putting the onus on Barrett by holding Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber to 80 combined yards in 18 carries. That was nearly enough to get the job done in Columbus, but the Wolverines fell short.
While Michigan's defense was great for most of the game, Ohio State showed that even an elite defense has its breaking point when it has to defend against three talented runners—Barrett, Samuel and Weber. It's not a coincidence that the Buckeyes' last two drives in regulation accounted for nearly 42 percent (138 yards) of their total offense (330 yards) for the game.
Urban Meyer will likely use a similar game plan against Clemson: pound the Tigers defense on the ground and hope the Buckeyes can keep Watson and Gallman in check.
There are worrying signs for Ohio State. Outside of their 62-3 wins against Rutgers and Maryland, the Buckeyes beat Northwestern by only four points and needed a late interception to seal their victory over Michigan State. And while the referees weren't a decisive factor, Ohio State benefited from some questionable calls against Michigan and could've easily lost that game.
Meyer and his staff will have over a month to learn from that close call ahead of the semifinals. That extra preparation time should allow Ohio State to get Barrett, Samuel and Weber firing on all cylinders.
Prediction: Ohio State 28, Clemson 20
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
