Sugar Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Auburn vs. Oklahoma
After they both overcame 1-2 starts, No. 7 Oklahoma and No. 14 Auburn will square off in the 2017 Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Coach Bob Stoops and the Sooners are coming off an impressive 38-20 win over rival Oklahoma State, giving him his 10th Big 12 title in 18 years. The win was Oklahoma's ninth in a row following a Week 3 loss to Ohio State, which is second only to undefeated Alabama and Western Michigan.
Prior to a big loss in the Iron Bowl, coach Gus Malzahn's Tigers were in the midst of a similar turnaround. Riding breakout running back Kamryn Pettway, Auburn was able to put aside its own 1-2 start with a six-game run that has likely saved the fourth-year head coach's job.
This will be the first meeting between these programs since a 40-22 Sugar Bowl win for the Sooners in 1972.
Date: Monday, Jan. 2
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Place: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
TV: ESPN
Spread: Oklahoma -5.5 (per OddsShark.com)
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7In terms of offensive firepower, these two teams couldn't be any different. The Sooners put up over 40 points per game and gain almost 200 more yards per game than the Tigers.
Auburn's defense will be key in terms of slowing down the Sooner attack and forcing turnovers.
Keys to Victory for Auburn
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Be Opportunistic on Defense
If there's one area where the Oklahoma offense runs into trouble, it's in the turnover department.
The Sooners have lost nine fumbles, and quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown eight picks on the year. Mayfield can especially get himself into trouble when he's trying to force plays downfield, which he did in the Sooners' Week 3 loss to Ohio State.
Oklahoma will move the ball, but Auburn's defense should have chances to make game-changing plays.
Don't Let Westbrook Beat You
It's no coincidence that Oklahoma's nine-game winning streak has coincided with receiver Dede Westbrook's Heisman push.
The senior wide receiver has been absolutely spectacular this season, going for 100 yards or more eight times with 16 touchdowns. Assuming he's recovered from his Week 14 concussion, he will be the focal point of a very explosive Oklahoma attack.
But behind Westbrook, the Sooners' second-leading receiver is running back Joe Mixon with 449 yards. As far as downfield threats, it all starts and stops with Westbrook's ability to break loose and make people miss.
Whatever game plan the Tigers have on defense has to include forcing someone else to make plays for Mayfield.
Ride the Running Game
Whenever you're up against a team that plays as fast and scores as many points as Oklahoma, the goal is to keep that offense on the sideline as much as possible. And the Tigers have the right attack to do that.
The Tigers run the ball as much as anyone, ranking seventh in the country in attempts per game. The volume has led to over 1,100 yards for breakout sophomore Kamryn Pettway and another 862 for Kerryon Johnson.
With the Sooners allowing over 4.6 yards per carry, getting this ground game rolling will be essential to pulling the upset.
Keys to Victory for Auburn
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Establish the Running Backs
Mayfield and Westbrook get most of the hype, but Oklahoma's at its best when its two stud running backs are rolling.
As we saw in their regular-season finale, there's not much you can do when Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon do their thing. At 235 pounds, Perine works the interior of the defense to death, while Mixon provides all-purpose, home run ability.
Once these two are established, teams can't play coverage or drop back to take away Mayfield's deep ball. Auburn's been tough on the ground this season, but it hasn't seen a duo like this.
Don't Force Throws
Auburn's a tough defensive team, allowing just over 15 points per game on the year. For a quarterback so used to putting up points, Mayfield will have to be patient to keep himself out of trouble.
Turnovers will be a point of emphasis for the Tigers. The Sooners have a habit of giving it away, and Mayfield has been known to press when he feels the team needs a play.
That gunslinger mentality got Mayfield into trouble in losses to both Houston and Ohio State. With a full stable of healthy skill players, he should be able to take what the defense gives him all day.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Players to Watch for Auburn
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RB Kamryn Pettway
Hopefully over a nagging leg injury that's limited him since the November 5 win over Vanderbilt, we should get a full dose of Kamryn Pettway in this one.
Prior to his injury, Pettway was the SEC's leading rusher, transforming the Auburn attack with his brutal running style. Even in spite of a 17-yard dud against Alabama, the breakout sophomore is the nation's No. 12 rusher on a per-game basis.
Expect him to resume his high-volume role after a month to heal up.
NB Johnathan Ford
One of the nation's premier defensive backs, senior Johnathan Ford will have to bring his best to the field against the explosive Sooners.
A 204-pound nickel back, Ford can do a little bit of everything. He has 5.5 tackles for loss, seven deflections and the team's No. 3 tackler due to the amount of time he spends around the line of scrimmage.
Ford will often be tasked with coming down against the run, covering Joe Mixon out of the backfield and possibly containing Baker Mayfield when he breaks contain. He'll be busy, and his strong season says he's ready for the challenge.
DE Carl Lawson
Looking like the stud pass-rusher he was recruited to be, Carl Lawson has broken out as a junior and is wreaking havoc in opposing backfield.
Lawson leads the Tigers with 12.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks, easily setting career highs after an injury-plagued 2015 season.
The question now is whether Lawson will cash in on a productive, healthy season after this game. A huge game could seal the deal, and he has every reason to show out.
Players to Watch for Oklahoma
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RB Joe Mixon
Due to his versatility and big-play ability, Joe Mixon figures to be a major part of Oklahoma's offensive game plan.
Both the Sooners' second-leading rusher and receiver, Mixon's a miserable assignment for opposing defenses. He's fast, deceptively powerful and is very comfortable catching the ball all over the field. Whenever Oklahoma needs an off-schedule play, he's usually the one making it.
However Auburn tries to limit the Mayfield-Westbrook tandem, Mixon's ability to get yards after the catch figures to be an essential counterpunch.
LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
If you're not familiar with Ogbonnia Okoronkwo ("Obo" for short), it's time to get acquainted with one of the best linebackers in the country.
Leading the Sooners in both tackles for loss and sacks, Okoronkwo has seamlessly filled the void left by the departure of Eric Striker. His ability to get after the quarterback has really bailed out a weak Oklahoma defense, and there's nothing he doesn't do well.
After the season he's had, it wouldn't be a surprise if this was Okoronkwo's last game in the crimson and cream.
What They're Saying
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Auburn Excited to Be Back
Since playing in the last BCS National Championship Game, Auburn has played in the Outback and Birmingham Bowls with little at stake. Athletic director Jay Jacobs is excited to get back in a major bowl, especially after the 1-2 start to the season.
"I'm especially happy for our seniors, who will have a chance to play in a big-time game environment one more time as Auburn Tigers. Playing in the Sugar Bowl in 1983 was a highlight for me and our team, so I know from experience it's a special experience. The hospitality is second to none in New Orleans, and I look forward to enjoying it with our loyal fans.
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A win over a Top 10 team would be huge for this program.
Tigers Looking to Build Momentum for Second Straight Year
ESPN's Greg Ostendorf points out that Auburn set the stage for success this season with a big bowl win over Memphis to close the 2015 season. He believes the Tigers will be highly motivated to repeat that success with a win over Oklahoma.
"Just go back to last season. Auburn endured a difficult season and got stuck in the Birmingham Bowl. But the players were motivated. They took care of business against a good Memphis team, and it gave them momentum heading into the offseason. It should be the same attitude again this year, especially now that the Tigers are in a better bowl game.
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Stoops Not Dwelling on Missing Playoff
Though they're Big 12 champions, Stoops and his team aren't going to gripe about being left out of this year's playoff.
"It's hard to be bellyaching when you're 5, 6, or 7," said Stoops, per Max Olson of ESPN. "Bottom line is, you've got to do what's necessary to be in top 4."
The 1-2 start is to blame here and should keep this group focused throughout its preparation for this matchup.
Prediction
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Games like this one are what make bowl season so much fun.
The Sooners and Tigers couldn't be more different. Oklahoma relies on its offense to outscore the opponent, giving Mayfield the freedom to sling the ball all over the field. As for the Tigers, they want to grind you out and limit their quarterback's exposure.
So which style will prevail?
Coach Malzahn certainly has the formula to slow down the Sooners. His offense should be able to run on schedule with Pettway healthy, and his defensive front is absolutely good enough to knock Mayfield around.
That said, it's hard to imagine any team keeping the Sooners down for long. If they can't get the run going, they can just chuck it downfield until their opponent pulls guys out of the box. Or they can isolate Mixon on linebackers and let him break loose.
Unless the Sooners lay an egg, which is always possible with Bob Stoops, they should be able to make one more play than the Tigers can stop.
Prediction: Oklahoma 27, Auburn 23
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
