Kramer's Playoff Notebook: Selection Committee Sets Best Final 4 to Date
Selection committee members, I implore you not to check your Twitter mentions for the next few days. Don’t look at your text messages or emails. Heck, abandon all technology for a while.
You don’t want to read what Penn State has to say about all this. And Michigan. And Oklahoma. And whoever else might not appreciate and celebrate your hard work.
But that’s not what I am here to do. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. I am here to thank you for giving us a lovely, storyline-heavy, talent-rich postseason. That might not be your specific job description, but it doesn't mean we can't be grateful for it.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
You didn’t feel the need to do anything drastic following a weekend that didn't produce any outlandish results. Your final rankings are out, which means the playoff is set.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington in one semifinal. No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State in the other. The four teams—the chalk—from Tuesday’s final dress rehearsal held on.
Some will not like that. Some will yell that Penn State deserves a chance, and we’ll get to that. Others were merely hoping to finally be served massive amounts of playoff chaos, which has yet to really emerge in the first three years.
But lost in these endless discussion points is a delightful postseason filled with fantastic players, transcendent coaches and fascinating roles. Everything one could possibly look for in this three-game postseason is all there, starting in the obvious place.
Alabama will assume its role as the sport’s most powerful villain, which is good for college football. You need the villain. You also want the best team in the sport to have some say in this, and it will again. Repeating in this day and age is not easy. Neither is going 15-0.
Alabama, led by the best to ever coach—a reputation that could be highlighted plenty over the next five weeks—will look to do both. And it will start with Washington, the “underdog” of the postseason, which is a fascinating story in itself.
There is star power in many places, especially at quarterback. Deshaun Watson, J.T. Barrett, Jake Browning and Jalen Hurts are vastly different in style but all capable of taking the playoff over.
And while Nick Saban will be on the playoff poster, he is not alone. Urban Meyer, Dabo Swinney and Chris Petersen are worthy adversaries. They are not just the proud engineers of quality teams; these are larger-than-life personalities striving to change the way they are viewed moving forward.
There is the topic of revenge, which can be found in a few places. Clemson would love to get its revenge over Alabama after last year’s title game defeat; Alabama, meanwhile, would love to avenge its playoff loss against Ohio State a few short seasons ago.
This has everything. A mix of quality and pageantry and history unlike anything the playoff has seen. Oh, the previous postseasons were just fine—you did a quality job on these as well, committee members—but this just feels grander in scale in almost every way.
The teams, the players, the coaches, the stakes, the history. All of it. While it might not have been easy to assemble, the end result is overflowing with intrigue.
In time, you will be celebrated accordingly, committee members. It just might take a while.
So in the meantime, enjoy the vacation and your time away from your devices. Your glorious creations will be here soon enough.
As for other thoughts on the College Football Playoff along with some of the near misses, let’s dive in.
So What About Penn State?
There is, of course, another side to this jubilation and anticipation.
Penn State won its final nine games. The Nittany Lions beat Ohio State, a playoff team, less than two months ago. They capped off a brilliant run with a spectacular 38-31 come-from-behind win in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night, producing the most convincing final impression of any team in the country.
Penn State was also the bubble boy—the dreaded No. 5—and will have to settle for the Rose Bowl as a consolation (which, by the way, is a substantial consolation).
“Our guys would have loved to play in the playoff,” a composed Penn State head coach James Franklin said on the broadcast once the news became official. “But we're excited to play in a big bowl game. We're very appreciative.”
Oh, they stated a tremendous case to be included. It was there—starting, of course, with a conference title and a win over a team the committee clearly values a great deal.
Penn State made life hard on this group. Finally. Someone did it. But ultimately, three factors doomed the Nittany Lions.
For starters, the two losses. That one is obvious. And the defeat to Pitt, a four-loss team, certainly didn’t help. It is worth noting that Pitt is the only team that beat Clemson when assessing just how “bad” this loss was.
But the biggest factor was most likely the lopsided nature of the defeat to Michigan. The 39 points that separated those two teams, more than anything, was likely too much for them to overlook.
Whether it’s right or wrong, that likely served as the tipping point. But to date, Penn State’s playoff omission, given that it just won the best conference in football, feels like the most noteworthy.
So Do Conference Championships Matter?
Yes. Well, maybe. No, wait. It depends.
Here’s where this particular installment of the College Football Playoff could have a lasting, impactful effect on the future of this postseason.
It would seem that the mindset—at least with these particular human beings tasked with crafting a Top Four—has evolved some. We have been told for years how important conference championships are to the College Football Playoff and teams vying for positioning.
When this initial idea was discussed, it was one of the first bullet points addressed. It was the tipping point for all other discussions: strength of schedule, head-to-head results, etc. It mattered most.
Perhaps that is still the case, but things feel different now with two conference champions, Penn State and Oklahoma, on the sidelines.
“We come back to our mission and that's to select the four very best teams in football,” selection committee Chairman Kirby Hocutt told the nation shortly after the reveal. “Conference championships is only one piece.”
Do you take the four best teams or the four most deserving? Do you reward bold out-of-conference scheduling or geographic dominance?
That is not an easy answer, and it will vary yearly depending on the nuances of a season. But the committee’s willingness and openness to seek out the four best teams in football, conference titles be darned, is a fascinating development. In all likelihood, it will become a trend.
Oklahoma’s Bold, Beautiful Scheduling Ultimately Cost It
Here’s a harsh reality to programs thinking about beefing up out-of-conference scheduling to impress the committee: That concept, while noble and wonderful for the health of the sport, could backfire.
Take Oklahoma, for example.
The Sooners just capped off an undefeated Big 12 season with a win over Oklahoma State in Bedlam. They haven’t lost a football game since the middle of September.
Despite winning the Big 12, Bob Stoops’ team was given the No. 7 ranking by the selection committee. Given how things looked after the first few weeks, this was a tremendous rally for Oklahoma.
And yet, one can’t help but wonder what things could have looked like if the Sooners decided to play down rather than schedule up.
Instead of scheduling Houston and Ohio State—two games that ultimately defined the first chapter of the year—let’s say Oklahoma scheduled Eastern Southern Florida Gulf Coast West (note: not a real school, we don’t think) and some other cupcake to grab a win.
Undefeated Oklahoma would be in the playoff right now. It doesn’t matter how down the Big 12 was this year. The selection committee would not leave out an undefeated Power Five team.
Playing better competition actually hurt its overall chances, which is strange. For Ohio State, the team on the opposite side of this early result, it ultimately served as the playoff catapult.
It’s a fascinating balance in this brave new world. Do you play up and put your season at risk early in the year? Or do you hold off, despite our thirst for more quality matchups, and just put checkmarks next to opponents as you go?
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
