TaxSlayer Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
College football's version of Selection Sunday continues with the announcement that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will battle the Kentucky Wildcats in the 2016 TaxSlayer Bowl.
Georgia Tech is fresh off a 28-27 win over rival Georgia to close out its regular season, while Kentucky pulled off a massive upset with its 41-38 victory over in-state foe Louisville a little over a week ago.
Each team relies on pounding the ball on the ground to create offense, but can the Wildcats (7-5) overcome a putrid defense to keep the Yellow Jackets (8-4) off of the field? That will be the most important question when these two meet in Jacksonville.
The TaxSlayer Bowl will end a long postseason drought for Kentucky, as the team last went bowling in 2010 when it lost 27-10 to Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl. As for Georgia Tech, the Yellow Jackets return to a bowl game after missing their first since 1996 last season.
Let us take a look at the deciding factors of this matchup, as well as which players to look for on New Year's Eve.
Date: Dec. 31, 2016
Time: 11 a.m. ET
Location: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
TV: ESPN
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7These teams are pretty evenly matched statistically, but two discrepancies stand out.
Kentucky's turnover margin of minus-six is terrible when compared to Georgia Tech's plus-three mark. The Yellow Jackets thrive on controlling the ball, so giving this team extra possessions is a recipe for disaster in the Wildcats' case.
Kentucky also ranks 108th nationally in rushing defense, which is a problem against Georgia Tech, ranked 10th in rushing yards per game. This will need to drastically improve for the Wildcats to have a chance.
Keys to Victory for Georgia Tech
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Time of Possession
As mentioned before, Kentucky can hurt itself offensively with careless turnovers. The best way to exploit this weakness is to make the Wildcats pay with long scoring drives.
Georgia Tech, despite playing a triple-option style that aims to eat clock and wear down opposing defenses, only ranks 61st nationally in time of possession. Kentucky sits just behind it at No. 62. The Wildcats' putrid rush defense indicates that they could allow Georgia Tech to control the contest on the ground.
Owning the ball for at least 60 percent of the game would put Georgia Tech in an excellent position. The Yellow Jackets have three rushers in Marcus Marshall, Dedrick Mills and Justin Thomas with at least 500 yards, so look for them to give Kentucky fits coming out of the backfield. Unfortunately for Georgia Tech, they won't have Marshall for this contest, as he announced last week he will be transferring.
Establish a Passing Game
Georgia Tech ran the ball 560 times compared to just 146 pass attempts this year, so the Yellow Jackets' game plan is no secret. But it will not be as effective without the aerial attack taking pressure off of the ground game.
Thomas has been solid this season, throwing for 1,454 yards and eight touchdowns to just two picks. However, he has just three games this season in which he threw for over 150 yards. Georgia Tech went 3-0 in those contests, and it should be 4-0 if he repeats this feat against Kentucky.
The Wildcats have been decent against the pass, ranking 48th nationally in yards allowed through the air. Top target Clinton Lynch, 16 catches for 490 yards and six touchdowns, will have one-on-one matchups all game on play-action situations. If he can win those battles, Georgia Tech will shine offensively.
Keys to Victory for Kentucky
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Which Stephen Johnson Will Show Up?
Since taking over for Drew Barker after a 45-7 drubbing to Florida in Week 2, Stephen Johnson has led Kentucky to a 7-3 record. However, the junior transfer from Grambling State has struggled with consistency.
He played the game of his life against Louisville, completing 16 of 27 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns to go with 83 yards on the ground. On the other hand, Johnson failed to throw a touchdown pass in five SEC games this season, finishing with a 4-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in conference play.
Georgia Tech's defense will give up some yards, ranking 88th nationally with 388.6 yards conceded per game. Can Johnson take advantage of the Yellow Jackets while avoiding costly turnovers? He will certainly have to for Kentucky's sake.
Get Ahead Early
Triple-option teams thrive on taking and maintaining leads. They are not equipped to overcome deficits with a strong passing game, as picking up chunks of yards on the ground just takes up too much time.
In all four of its losses, Georgia Tech trailed at halftime and was down by at least 20 at one point in three of those defeats. Kentucky has some big-time playmakers at receiver in Jeff Badet and Garrett Johnson, so it could create explosive plays downfield to earn an early advantage against a pass defense that ranks 73rd.
It is critical that the Wildcats go into halftime with a lead, as forcing Georgia Tech to air it out keeps Kentucky's shaky rush defense from having to consistently stop the Yellow Jackets.
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Players to Watch for Georgia Tech
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DL Patrick Gamble
A versatile playmaker, Patrick Gamble is the main man on Georgia Tech's front seven.
The senior contributes from defensive end and on the interior at nose tackle. Gamble leads Georgia Tech in tackles for loss (8.5) and sacks (5.5) while also racking up 47 total tackles. An important part of rattling Johnson will be with pressure, and look for Gamble to provide that.
S Corey Griffin
Leading Georgia Tech's defensive effort is Corey Griffin, an excellent safety who does it all for the Yellow Jackets.
The junior leads the team with 79 total tackles to go with four tackles for loss, two picks and a sack. He will be needed to stifle Kentucky's powerful rushing attack while also making plays in coverage downfield. The Wildcats will be well of aware of No. 14 all afternoon.
QB Justin Thomas
Despite deploying a fleet of quality running backs, Georgia Tech's offense is dictated by Thomas' play.
He is the team's third leading rusher with 562 yards and five touchdowns, but he needs to consistently make accurate throws to keep Kentucky's defense off-balance. The onus is also on Thomas to make smart decisions with the ball in the pass and run. He is responsible for deciding when to pitch to his backs or keep it, and fumbling the ball away would put Georgia Tech in a tough spot against a quality Kentucky attack.
Players to Watch for Kentucky
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LB Jordan Jones
Priority No. 1 for Kentucky will be slowing down Georgia Tech's rushing attack, and sophomore Jordan Jones will be leaned on heavily to do so.
Jones has been excellent for the Wildcats, leading the team with 100 total tackles and 14 tackles for loss. He was especially stellar against Louisville, racking up 10 tackles, two stops for loss and a sack while keying on Lamar Jackson, who coughed up three picks in the game.
Jones is the foundation of this defense moving forward, and he will look to enter 2017 off of a strong bowl performance.
RB Benjamin Snell Jr.
As the power portion of Kentucky's running back duo, Benjamin Snell Jr. has lifted Kentucky's offense to a new level this season. In fact, the Wildcats may not be in a bowl game without him.
The true freshman leads the team in carries (179) and rushing touchdowns with (13) while totaling 1,057 yards on the ground. He is an emerging star in the SEC and the face of Kentucky's offense moving forward. Look for Snell to be prominently featured in Jacksonville.
RB Stanley "Boom" Williams
Stanley "Boom" Williams makes up for the other half of this one-two punch, as he is one of the SEC's most explosive rushers.
Williams ran for 1,135 yards and seven scores this season while adding a receiving touchdown. He averaged 7.1 yards a carry this year, bringing his career average to just under seven yards per tote. The junior has endured plenty of losing, so he will certainly be ready to make an impact in his first bowl game.
What They're Saying
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As expected, Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops was happy to have his team in its first bowl game in six years. He acknowledged the challenge Georgia Tech poses, but he also noted how important this achievement is to a fanbase that has not had much to cheer about in recent seasons.
“We’re extremely excited and proud for our team, our university and our fans, to be invited to the TaxSlayer Bowl,” Stoops said, per a school release. “It’s a bowl with a rich tradition and we’re honored to become part of it. We’re also excited about the opportunity to play Georgia Tech, an outstanding team that will be a great challenge.”
On the other side, Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson mentioned his team's late-season run as a catalyst for its bowl berth.
"We are very excited to represent the ACC in the TaxSlayer Bowl," Johnson said, via the school's athletics department. "Playing in such a terrific bowl with a long, storied history is a great reward for our student-athletes after winning five of the last six games to close the regular season. We have a lot of respect for Coach Stoops and Kentucky and look forward to a great trip to Jacksonville and a great game."
Both coaches are saying the right things at the moment, but each has to be concerned that his opponent can exploit weaknesses in his team's game.
Prediction
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Georgia Tech excels at controlling the game on the ground, while Kentucky struggles to stop the run. But the Yellow Jackets cannot afford to fall behind, and the Wildcats can put up points in a heartbeat. So who has the advantage?
Neither team holds a significant edge, and each enters this game feeling strong. Georgia Tech won five of its last six games, while Kentucky reeled off a win against its top rival.
Expect Kentucky to come out to a quick start, as every player on its roster is playing in his first ever postseason contest. This emotion could lead to some early stops and a touchdown or two, but it may not matter in the end.
The Yellow Jackets have been more consistent this season, notching wins over Georgia and Virginia Tech compared to Kentucky's lone quality win over Louisville. The Wildcats may have just caught the Cardinals at the right time, as their playoff hopes were dashed a week earlier at Houston.
Kentucky's defense has been its downfall all season long, as it allowed at least 34 points seven times, and that looks like it may haunt them at the TaxSlayer Bowl. Look for Georgia Tech to control the second half and grind down the Wildcats for a postseason win.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 31, Kentucky 24
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