Citrus Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Louisville vs. LSU
Two vastly conflicting styles will collide at the 2016 Citrus Bowl, making for a marquee matchup between the Louisville Cardinals and the LSU Tigers.
Louisville could boast the Heisman Trophy winner in electric quarterback Lamar Jackson, but the Cardinals will need to recover from a two-game skid that included losses to Houston and Kentucky to compete with the Bayou Bengals.
Meanwhile, LSU will play in its first game with Ed Orgeron as its official head coach. After a 2-2 start, the Tigers won five of their last seven under Orgeron, with the two defeats coming at the hands of the SEC championship's two participants in Alabama and Florida.
The Cardinals are accustomed to playing in fast-paced, high-scoring affairs thanks to its dynamite offense, while LSU prefers to play physical with a strong running game and tenacious defense. An unstoppable force is set to meet an immovable object in Orlando, so which side is going to give?
Here is a breakdown of this matchup, including the key aspects and the stars of this contest.
Date: Dec. 31
Time (ET): 11 a.m.
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
TV: ABC
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7The above graphic does not reveal too much new information about these teams, but it certainly highlights each program's strength.
Louisville is sensational on offense, but LSU ranks among the best units nationally in points allowed per game. The Tigers are also solid in terms of total offense, but most of that is gained on the ground. Meanwhile, the Cardinals boast a strong defense of their own, even with their abysmal last two performances.
One stat that stands out is the number of turnovers for Louisville's offense. Giving the ball away 30 times, especially 20 fumbles, is simply unacceptable for a unit this good. By comparison, LSU only has 16 turnovers on the year, but the Tigers also run a much more conservative offense.
Keys to Victory for Louisville
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Avoid Turnovers
Louisville hit a wall in its final two games of the season, losing consecutively to Houston and rival Kentucky. Turnovers are a key reason why, as the Cardinals turned it over a combined seven times in those two defeats.
This has proven to be a legitimate defense against this vaunted Louisville offense. The team still leads the country with 45.3 points per game behind the dynamic play of Jackson, but turnovers mean less possession time for Jackson on offense and better field position for the opposition. If the Cardinals commit zero turnovers in this game, they will be in tremendous shape.
Limit LSU's Rushing Attack
The strength of LSU's offense is no secret. The Tigers arguably have two of the five best rushers in college football in Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice, and they will undoubtedly lean on them throughout this one.
Fournette has missed five games this season due to injury, but he is still tearing it up with 843 yards and eight scores on the year. Meanwhile, Guice emerged as a superstar in LSU's backfield. The sophomore has 1,249 yards and 14 scores, and he set the school's single-game rushing record twice with 252 yards against Arkansas before exploding for 285 on Texas A&M.
LSU failed to top 250 total rushing yards in its four losses, so that is a good number to target against Louisville. The Cardinals held Houston to just 64 yards, but Kentucky racked up 229 yards the following game, so this unit needs to find some better consistency.
Win on Third Down
In Louisville's tight 24-14 win over Duke, a blueprint was drawn for slowing down Louisville's offense.
The Blue Devils converted on eight of 16 third-down attempts and held the ball nearly 15 minutes longer than the Cardinals. This kept Jackson off of the field and kept Duke in a game where it was largely outmatched talent-wise.
LSU ranks 37th nationally converting on 43.7 percent of its third downs, so the Tigers could replicate this strategy. Louisville's 30.6 percent rate defensively is good for eighth in the country, and it will need to be every bit as lofty as that ranking in Orlando.
Keys to Victory for LSU
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Get Danny Etling Going
A lack of a passing game is partly what did in former head coach Les Miles, but this element has shown flashes of improvement in recent weeks.
Danny Etling finally came alive in the regular-season finale against Texas A&M, completing 20 of 28 passes for 324 yards and two scores in a 54-39 win. However, he failed to throw a touchdown pass in the previous three games against Alabama, Arkansas and Florida, finishing with fewer than 200 yards in two of those contests.
Adding a quality passing game does wonders for this offense, and the same can happen on New Year's Eve if Etling follows up his last performance. LSU needs to give him some intermediate throws early to build up his confidence. Not only will this lead to bigger plays later in the game, but it takes considerable pressure off of Fournette and Guice.
Do Not Lose Contain on Jackson
This is obviously light-years easier said than done, but a lack of discipline has hurt teams this season against Jackson.
Louisville's offense centers around the zone read, with Jackson either handing the ball to Brandon Radcliff or keeping it himself. It is imperative that LSU focuses on Jackson first on these plays and not get sucked into following the running back. This may result in Radcliff gaining some quality yards at times, but he is way less of a threat with the ball than Jackson.
If LSU can keep contain on the edge it will be in good shape, as its linebackers and safeties can limit Jackson's damage in the ground game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Players to Watch for Louisville
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QB Lamar Jackson
Obviously, right? As the potential Heisman winner and arguably the most dynamic quarterback in college football since Cam Newton, Jackson will undoubtedly be a focal point in this game.
LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is going to lose sleep this month trying to figure out how to contain this sophomore. On the year, Jackson has 3,390 yards and 30 touchdowns passing to go with a staggering 1,538 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground. The Florida native totaled at least five touchdowns in four games this season, but he only has one such outing since September.
He is a threat to score on every play, so expect some fireworks on New Year's Eve from the Lousiville star.
LB Keith Kelsey
The man in charge of leading Louisville's run defense will be senior linebacker Keith Kelsey, and he could be up to the task.
Kelsey is the heart and soul of this unit, leading the Cardinals with 80 total tackles to go with 3.5 tackles for loss. He makes all of the calls from the middle of Louisville's defense, and he will need to come up big in one-on-one tackling situations against Fournette and Guice.
TE Cole Hikutini
In a loaded receiving group, Cole Hikutini often goes unnoticed despite being Jackson's security blanket and most reliable target.
The senior leads Louisville with 49 catches and eight touchdowns, but he is especially important on third down. Hikutini has 12 catches for 174 yards and three scores in this situation, while six of his touchdowns have come in the red zone.
LSU's stout secondary will likely smother Louisville's receivers for stretches, so Hikutini will be an X-factor if the Cardinals want to extend drives.
Players to Watch for LSU
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LB Kendell Beckwith
LSU has its own senior star at linebacker in Kendell Beckwith who is sure to have a tremendous impact in the Citrus Bowl.
Beckwith leads LSU with 91 total tackles despite playing in just 10 games, and he combines with Duke Riley to give the Tigers one of the top linebacker groups in the country. He will be responsible for checking Louisville's read-option attack from his inside linebacker spot, and he is rangy enough to track down Jackson on the perimeter. Expect to hear Beckwith's name called all afternoon.
QB Danny Etling
There may not be a bigger X-factor in this matchup than Etling. If he plays well, LSU will be nearly impossible to beat, but he is more than capable of laying an egg and putting the Tigers in an uphill battle.
Etling has great weapons at his disposal in D.J. Chark, Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural to go with the excellent running game, so the pieces are all there for Etling to succeed. He was great against the Aggies' terrific defense, but can he do the same against an athletic Louisville unit?
CB Tre'Davious White
Tre'Davious White could have bolted for the NFL after last season, been a fringe first-round pick and nobody would have batted an eyelash. But he came back to lead this secondary with another phenomenal season.
On the year, White has 31 total tackles, four tackles for loss and two picks. He returned one of those interceptions for a touchdown against Wisconsin, and he also has a touchdown returning punts for LSU.
White makes an impact in so many ways, and he will likely be matched up with speedy receivers Jamari Staples and James Quick on the boundary. In his final collegiate game, look for White to possibly make a special play in crunch time.
What They're Saying
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Louisville came crashing back down to earth in its last two games. Following its loss to Kentucky, Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino noted that his team did its best to recover from falling out of national title contention even though it still struggled against the Wildcats, per the Courier-Journal's Steve Jones.
"Losing's hard. There's no question, losing is hard. It is part of this profession. It is part of this game and you have to learn how to handle it. You have to learn from it. I did feel like that we learned from the Houston game. I thought we came out and had a good attitude and good practices and today we just came up a little short.
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Louisville's mindset will be important heading into another tough matchup with LSU in determining if this team bounces back or continues to slide.
On the other hand, Orgeron is looking to get his program back among the nation's elite. He spoke about his goal during his introductory press conference when he received the full-time head coaching gig, via ESPN's David Ching.
"My goal is to build a championship program fast, very fast," Orgeron said last month. "I understand the expectations at LSU and I invite them because I have the same expectations of myself and my staff."
Losing his first bowl game to a strong ACC opponent would not be a great way to start that mission, as LSU needs a standout showing to ease the tension among Tigers fans.
Prediction
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The pressure is high on both schools to win this game. Louisville needs to rebound strong and prove itself as a national title contender going into next season. LSU needs a win to set the tone for the Orgeron era.
However, this matchup slightly favors the Bayou Bengals.
Louisville struggles with LSU's style of controlling the ball with a physical offense and stout defense. Look at the near loss to Duke and the Cardinals' poor outings against Virginia and Wake Forest, where they needed big fourth quarters to survive.
The main difference here is that LSU is significantly more talented on both sides of the ball. The Tigers have the ability to create 3rd-and-short situations with their running game, which should lead to a good number of conversions and a healthy time of possession.
LSU also has the defensive front with Beckwith, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, defensive end Arden Key and Riley to penetrate this Louisville offensive line and stop Jackson behind the line of scrimmage before he can get to full speed.
This is the type of team Louisville needed to avoid in a bowl game, since LSU can exploit its weaknesses and match the Cardinals' athleticism. It will not be pretty, but look for the defense to ball out and Etling to make just enough plays to put LSU over the top in the Citrus Bowl.
Prediction: LSU 27, Louisville 24
Offensive statistics are courtesy of NCAA.com.
Defensive statistics are courtesy of CFBStats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
