Fiesta Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Clemson vs. Ohio State
With a spot in the national championship hanging in the balance, the Clemson Tigers and the Ohio State Buckeyes will meet in Glendale, Arizona, on New Year's Eve for a College Football Playoff showdown in the Fiesta Bowl.
The No. 2 Tigers (12-1) paved their way to a semifinal bid by winning the ACC championship over Virginia Tech. Big victories over Auburn, Louisville and Florida State highlight a season with a lone blemish—an upset loss to Pitt at home in Week 11.
The playoff path was much different for the No. 3 Buckeyes (11-1). They didn't play in their conference title game after losing the divisional tiebreaker with Penn State. But their resume is one of the most impressive in college football, with wins over Michigan, Oklahoma and Wisconsin.
The last time these two met on the field was in January 2014, when Clemson prevailed 40-35 in an Orange Bowl shootout.
Here's everything you need to know about the playoff matchup between Clemson and Ohio State, including a prediction, players to watch and keys to victory for each team.
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, December 31
Time: 3 p.m. ET or 7 p.m. ET
Place: University of Phoenix Stadium—Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN
Spread: Ohio State (-3), via OddsShark.
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7A look at the stats hints toward a strength-against-strength setup with Clemson's offense against Ohio State's defense.
The Tigers have lit up scoreboards all year and come into the playoff averaging more than 40 points per game. But the Buckeyes have one of the stingiest defenses in the country, surrendering a hair over two touchdowns a game—a mark that ranks third nationally.
The biggest advantage for either team, though, is the one Ohio State has in the turnover department.
Ohio State Keys to Victory
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Protect the Quarterback
Ohio State's offensive line had to replace three starters this year, including both the left and right tackle. The unit held up for most of the season and paved the way for the nation's No. 9 rushing offense.
But the line struggled in two of the biggest games this season—on the road at Penn State and in the season finale against Michigan—especially in pass protection. The Buckeyes gave up 25 sacks in 2016, but 14 of those came against the Nittany Lions and Wolverines.
Clemson excels at wreaking havoc in the backfield, ranking third nationally in sacks and tackles for loss.
Develop a Deep Threat
When Ohio State won the College Football Playoff in 2014, it had a balanced offense that was perfectly complemented by the deep-threat ability of wide receiver Devin Smith.
Since Smith's departure that year, the Buckeyes haven't successfully replaced him in the wide receiver unit. And with the departure of Michael Thomas last year, Ohio State has struggled greatly with big plays in the passing game.
This season, the Buckeyes rank 105th nationally in passing plays of at least 30 yards and 116th in similar plays of at least 40 yards. Whether it's Curtis Samuel, Parris Campbell or someone else, Urban Meyer needs to find a player who can get behind the Clemson defense.
Clemson Keys to Victory
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Win the Turnover Battle
Clemson's offense has been one of the most turnover-prone in the country, and it can't continue to be careless and expect to move past Ohio State in the playoff.
The Tigers have averaged nearly two turnovers a game, which ranks No. 109th nationally. Ohio State's defense, meanwhile, has averaged more than two takeaways per game, which ranks 10th in the country.
With the Buckeyes' opportunistic defense that has forced 25 turnovers this year, Clemson has to put a premium on taking care of the ball.
Load the Box
On the other side of the ball, Clemson needs to load the box and stop the run until Ohio State proves it can move the ball consistently through the air.
The Buckeyes have the No. 9 rush offense thanks to running back Mike Weber, H-back Curtis Samuel and the running ability of J.T. Barrett. But Ohio State's quarterback has been erratic all season and struggles with his accuracy when he faces pressure.
Both Michigan State and Michigan deployed a similar strategy and Barrett averaged just 105 passing yards in those contests. That kind of output won't be good enough to beat Clemson, so the Tigers should do everything they can to replicate that pressure.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Ohio State Players to Watch
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J.T. Barrett
Ohio State goes as J.T. Barrett goes.
The redshirt junior quarterback was named the Big Ten Quarterback of the Year after throwing for 2,428 yards and 24 touchdowns against just five interceptions. But he also ran the ball more this season than in any other in his career, totaling 847 yards and nine touchdowns on 194 carries.
Urban Meyer and the offensive coaching staff put a lot on Barrett's shoulders. If he has a good game, it's nearly impossible to beat the Buckeyes. But if the defense gets after him, Ohio State's offense becomes incredibly one-dimensional.
Curtis Samuel
J.T. Barrett has been the engine in Ohio State's offense, but Curtis Samuel has been the team's most explosive playmaker.
The all-purpose back paced the receiving corps by a wide margin, leading the team with 65 catches for 822 yards and seven touchdowns. He's also the team's biggest home run threat from the backfield with 91 carries for 704 yards and eight touchdowns.
In Ohio State's only loss of the season, it struggled to showcase Samuel despite his big-play ability. He registered just two carries against the Nittany Lions, one of which went 74 yards for a touchdown.
Clemson Players to Watch
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Mike Williams
Few wideouts in the country are playing better football right now than Mike Williams.
The junior pass-catcher has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark in five games this season and finished the year with a team-high 79 receptions for 1,114 yards and 10 touchdowns. In addition to being Deshaun Watson's most reliable outlet, he has the ability to go over the top with elite speed and punish a defense that leaves him on an island.
He'll need to be at his best against an Ohio State pass defense that only surrenders 164.5 passing yards per game, which is good for fifth nationally.
Christian Wilkins
In a stout defensive line that features studs such as Dexter Lawrence and Carlos Watkins, Christian Wilkins is the most disruptive force for the Clemson defense.
The standout defensive end earned second team All-ACC honors after leading the Tigers with 12 tackles for loss. But he'll be key for the Tigers when he's lined up against right tackle Isaiah Prince. The first-year starter for the Buckeyes has struggled when facing an elite defensive end, so Wilkins can give Clemson a huge edge if he wins that battle.
What They're Saying
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Dabo Swinney hasn't had a chance to watch a full Ohio State game yet, but he has a very high opinion of the program Urban Meyer has built in Columbus.
"They're the Buckeyes," Swinney said, via ESPN's Playoff Selection Show broadcast. "They're a great program and have been. You look at what Urban Meyer's done since returning to Ohio State and it's incredible."
Urban Meyer hasn't studied the game film either, but he feels like he's familiar with Clemson and its program.
"I know a lot about Clemson because we recruit against them, we run a similar type of program and I have a lot of respect for Dabo [Swinney]," Meyer said on ESPN. "I know their quarterback, we tried to recruit him as well, and they have a very talented group."
Prediction
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The last time Ohio State and Clemson faced off, the Tigers won a shootout.
This time around, the Buckeyes will win a defensive slugfest.
Neither team will have a great day offensively. J.T. Barrett will account for 240 total yards and a pair of touchdowns, but Clemson's run defense will keep Ohio State's explosive attack in check and limit big plays.
The Tigers will struggle when they have the ball as well. Deshaun Watson will have his moments, including a 40-yard touchdown pass to Mike Williams.
But a late Tigers turnover will put Ohio State in scoring position, and Barrett will run in the go-ahead touchdown to push the Buckeyes into the title game.
Ohio State 24, Clemson 20
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
