Bowl Projections 2016: Predictions for CFP Championship and Biggest Matchups
In a wild and unpredictable season for college football, Saturday's slate of conference championship games and rivalry showdowns leaves one more opportunity for everything to be thrown into chaos before the College Football Playoff selection committee announces the final rankings.
Before looking ahead to predictions for what the committee will do, here's a look at the latest Top 25 released on Tuesday:
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
College Football Playoff Predictions
| Fiesta Bowl | No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Washington |
| Peach Bowl | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan |
Alabama and Ohio State are locks for the playoff, regardless of what happens on Saturday.
The Crimson Tide have the benefit of being the only undefeated Power Five team left standing, so even a loss against Florida in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday night doesn't seem like it would be enough to drop them out of the Top 4.
The Buckeyes didn't get punished for being left out of the Big Ten Championship Game this week. Even if Penn State, which defeated Ohio State earlier this season, beats Wisconsin in the conference title game, it doesn't seem as if it will be enough to convince the committee it belongs in over Ohio State.
Playoff selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt didn't seem too enamored with the Nittany Lions after the most recent rankings were released, per CBS Sports' Jon Solomon:
With the top two spots safe, Clemson and Washington have known their tasks are to win their respective conference title games to get in.
The Huskies were able to do so in the Pac-12 title game, dominating Colorado 41-10 on Friday night to all but secure their spot in the Top 4. There's no way for the committee to justify dropping them below Michigan or the Big Ten champion after defeating the No. 8 team in the rankings.
Clemson has an interesting matchup against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. Per ESPN.com's Andrea Adelson, Virginia Tech tight end Bucky Hodges is exactly the kind of playmaker who has given Clemson's defense fits this season:
"Though he's listed as a tight end, he mostly plays receiver and has been a matchup nightmare for just about every team he’s faced because of his size (6-foot-7, 245 pounds) and athleticism. Nobody will soon forget what Alabama tight end O.J. Howard (6-6, 251) did in the national championship game against the Tigers.
Pitt's Scott Orndoff, more of a true tight end, had nine receptions for 128 yards and two touchdowns against Clemson. NC State's Jaylen Samuels, more of a hybrid like Hodges but much shorter, had 100 yards receiving, too. So, to pull the upset, utilizing Hodges effectively has to be a big key for the Hokies.
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The Hokies haven't been known for their offensive firepower in recent years, but head coach Justin Fuente is flipping that script, with his team averaging 453.4 yards and 35.0 points per game.
Clemson has struggled in its toughest games this season, squeaking by Louisville and Florida State before finally slipping up against Pittsburgh. Those three teams scored a total of 113 points against the Tigers.
It's possible the loss to Pitt was a wake-up call for Clemson, but we won't know until after this game because wins over two mediocre teams in Wake Forest and South Carolina don't tell us anything.
Clemson could be in trouble. This will open the door for one of the three Big Ten teams to sneak in.
Michigan gets the edge in this scenario, especially if Penn State beats Wisconsin because the Wolverines hold a 49-10 win over the Nittany Lions earlier this year. The Badgers were more competitive against Michigan, losing a narrow 14-7 defensive battle, but a head-to-head loss when both teams finished the season with two losses has to count for something.
Hocutt even said during ESPN's playoff ranking show (per Solomon) on Tuesday that the margin between No. 4 Washington and No. 5 Michigan was "very, very small." If that's the case, it should only take an upset in the ACC title game to get the Wolverines into the playoff.
Best of the Rest
Cotton Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Penn State
Even though Penn State hopes to make one final statement to the selection committee, the Cotton Bowl is not a bad fallback plan for the program after its first season with double-digit wins since 2007.
The Nittany Lions have their supporters around the country as an underrated club, with Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports highlighting what makes this team's surge after a slow start underappreciated:
"Well, the Penn State of today is not the Penn State that lost those two games earlier this season. Over the last five or six weeks, you can make a very strong argument that Penn State has been playing better than any other team in the Big Ten. It's won its last six games by an average of 25.7 points, and that includes a three-point win over No. 2 Ohio State.
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If we are talking about being underrated, Western Michigan has a stronger argument than Penn State. This isn't to suggest the Broncos belong in the playoff conversation, but this is a 12-0 team that is three spots behind a four-loss Auburn team in the playoff standings.
The upside is that Western Michigan is the highest-ranked "Group of Five" team in the nation, giving it the inside track on an at-large bid to one of the bowl games chosen by the selection committee.
Backlash against Group of Five teams is typical, especially one that plays in the MAC, with Paul Myerberg of USA Today pointing out how multiple-loss American Athletic Conference teams like Navy or Temple could steal Western Michigan's spot, even if the Broncos stay undefeated:
"But there is an immense gap in depth and talent between the MAC and the American. The American went 3-0 against the MAC this season and 11-2 in games against fellow Group of Five teams. As a whole, the conference touts six teams with eight or more wins: Navy, Temple, South Florida, Tulsa, Houston and Memphis. In comparison, only six MAC teams reached bowl eligibility.
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One of the most annoying trends in college football this time of year is dwelling on what teams didn't do, rather than focusing on what they actually accomplished.
Instead of punishing Western Michigan for something it can't control—the quality of its conference—let's see what the undefeated squad can do against a power-conference team.
Boise State proved its mettle on the national stage in 2006 by going undefeated during the regular season and beating Oklahoma in that legendary Fiesta Bowl.
In 2004, Urban Meyer and Alex Smith launched themselves into the stratosphere by leading Utah to an undefeated season and dominating Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl.
Western Michigan's perfect 2016 season is enough to warrant putting this team on a major stage to see how it will handle the spotlight. You never know what these teams are capable of until they are given the opportunity.
Citrus Bowl: Louisville vs. Florida
The intrigue of seeing Lamar Jackson go against one of the nation's top defenses is too rich to pass up.
Jackson, who seemed like a shoo-in for the Heisman Trophy until Nov. 19, is looking to close his season on a high note. Louisville's sophomore sensation had five turnovers in losses against Houston and Kentucky.
Adelson did point out that brief slide shouldn't completely cloud all of the great things Jackson did in 2016:
"Louisville ended the regular season with two losses, but Jackson had an incredible year by any standard. The sophomore racked up 4,928 total yards and an ACC-record 51 touchdowns. He also ranked in the top 11 nationally in rushing, passing, total offense and points scored. He still remains the Heisman Trophy favorite.
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Ending the season on a high note will erase any negative feelings Jackson might have accumulated in November.
Florida is hardly an imposing force on offense. The Gators rank 104th in points per game (24.1), a number that figures to go down against Alabama's defense in the SEC Championship Game.
That's good news for a Louisville team that allowed a total of 77 points against Houston and Kentucky.
Defense is the overwhelming strength of Florida's team, as it's allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (14.6), but even that unit is in a bad spot with safety Marcus Maye and linebacker Alex Anzalone out after both suffered broken arms during games in November.
Louisville's dream season quickly dissolved into a nightmare, but being able to salvage a bowl win gives Jackson and head coach Bobby Petrino a positive way to head into 2017.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
