College Football Playoff 2016: Full Bowl Predictions for Biggest Matchups
At this point, everyone is just ready for some actual football, right?
After a week of debating how the College Football Playoff might shake out, folks must be ready to see the conference championships play out on the field. But in case you are still obsessed with the permutations of how the playoff might play out—admittedly, I am—I've made predictions for how the playoff will be constructed and the pairings for the major bowls, along with predicting winners for each game.
Let's get to it.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Friday, Dec. 30 | Orange Bowl | Florida State vs. Michigan | Michigan |
| Saturday, Dec. 31 | College Football Playoff (Peach Bowl) | Alabama vs. Washington | Alabama |
| Saturday, Dec. 31 | College Football Playoff (Fiesta Bowl) | Ohio State vs. Clemson | Ohio State |
| Monday, Jan. 2 | Rose Bowl | Wisconsin vs. USC | USC |
| Monday, Jan. 2 | Sugar Bowl | Oklahoma vs. Auburn | Oklahoma |
| Monday, Jan. 2 | Cotton Bowl | Navy vs. Penn State | Penn State |
| Monday, Jan. 9 | National Championship Game | Alabama vs. Ohio State | Alabama |
College Football Playoff
The committee's rankings this week made it pretty clear that the College Football Playoff could be a rather straightforward affair.
At this point, Alabama and Ohio State are locks. Even a loss for Alabama won't knock them out of the playoff, though it could affect the seeding. Ohio State's seeding may be affected as well, though the Buckeyes are in.
Clemson will be in as well with a win, which leaves Washington as the only real question mark. But the fact that Washington leapfrogged Michigan this week—even if committee chairman Kirby Hocutt called the margin between the teams "razor thin," according to
Michigan, remember, beat both Penn State and Wisconsin. That will be the argument for the Wolverines. Either the Badgers or Nittany Lions will counter with a Big Ten title. It will be a fascinating debate if it's required.
But I don't think that will happen, because I think Alabama, Clemson and Washington will all win this week.
So, what happens from there?
Well, let's keep this simple: I don't think Alabama will lose this year. I think the Crimson Tide are too loaded from top to bottom. I certainly don't think Washington will beat them.
In the other semifinal, Ohio State and Clemson should be a battle, but I'll give the Buckeyes the edge. The major factor? Deshaun Watson is simply turning the ball over too much this season. It killed Michigan against Ohio State. I think it will kill Clemson, too.
The Buckeyes will give the Crimson Tide a run for their money in the title game, in large part because a veteran, mobile quarterback like J.T. Barrett is the sort of playmaker who can give Alabama problems. Not enough problems, however—Alabama is just too good.
Orange Bowl
By ranking Florida State over Louisville this week, the committee essentially put the Seminoles into the Orange Bowl. It's a tough break for Louisville, though the Cardinals blew their chances both for the Orange Bowl and potentially for a playoff spot by losing their last two games.
Awaiting the Seminoles will be a Michigan team that many people feel is one of the four best teams in the country. Florida State is a flawed team that hasn't been able to get past elite competition this year. Michigan is a smashmouth, physical team with the best defense in the country outside of Alabama that has struggled away from home.
The Wolverines will control this game and should win convincingly.
Rose Bowl
If Clemson and Washington both win, the Rose Bowl will get the Big Ten winner, which I believe will be Wisconsin. Penn State has been impressive down the stretch, but this is also a team that lost to Pittsburgh and was smashed by Michigan. The Badgers nearly beat the Wolverines and the Buckeyes, meanwhile, and had they won one of those games, they would be a lock for the playoff with a win in the Big Ten title game.
Instead, the Badgers will get the Rose Bowl, which will be left to pick between Colorado and USC. In this scenario, both teams will have three losses, with USC holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Trojans will also have a win over Washington on their schedule, and a strong argument could be made that since October, the Trojans have been the best team in college football outside of Alabama. They finished the season on an 8-0 run, and seven of those wins came by double-digit points.
Three September losses killed their playoff hopes, yes, but since making the switch to Sam Darnold at quarterback, the Trojans have been superb.
Ultimately, I think the committee will rank USC higher than Colorado if the Buffaloes lose in the Pac-12 title game, and USC will be off to the Rose Bowl, where they'll continue their hot streak by beating Wisconsin.
Sugar Bowl
Speaking of teams that are hot right now, Oklahoma has won eight straight games and should get past Oklahoma State this week as well. That won't be enough to get the Sooners into the playoff, but it will get them into the Sugar Bowl, where a solid if unspectacular Auburn team—the best remaining SEC team in a down season for the conference—will be awaiting.
Teams like Oklahoma and USC are examples of why an eight-team playoff is so appealing. Both teams have been red-hot since poor starts, and both teams have the talent to compete with any program in the nation. In an eight-team playoff, who knows how far they might advance?
We'll never know, as they'll instead be relegated to prestigious but ultimately meaningless bowl games. Oklahoma should win this prestigious but ultimately meaningless bowl game rather convincingly.
Cotton Bowl
The Cotton Bowl, for all intents and purposes, shouldn't offer that much intrigue. After all, you're looking at the highest-ranked team from the non-Power Five conferences against, more than likely, the loser of the Big Ten title game.
Ah, but which team will end up being the highest rated in this scenario?
The committee ranked undefeated Western Michigan at No. 17 this week and Navy (9-2) at No. 19. Western Michigan plays Ohio this week, while Navy plays a solid Temple team. A win over Temple is the more impressive result, and Navy also beat Houston this season.
Now, here's where it gets interesting. Navy also has a game against Army to come, and if there is the possibility that the result of that game will affect the rankings, then the committee will have to wait to release its final rankings.
Which means that a number of bowl games, waiting to see how the Cotton Bowl shakes out, could be left in limbo. In another season of chaos, this is a doomsday scenario.
"I don't want to be un-American," an unnamed bowl official told Brett McMurphy of ESPN.com, "but nearly everyone in the bowl industry, quite frankly, is rooting against Navy."
Another bowl official told McMurphy: "The bottom line is if the rankings are delayed, it would be a disaster to the bowl system."
The game itself should present less drama. A Penn State team that has finished the season on a tear should win this contest easily. But not before absolute bedlam settles upon the bowl system.
You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
