
Heisman Watch 2016: Odds for Top Race Candidates Before Championship Games
Championship week represents the last opportunity for the select number of players who remain in the Heisman Trophy conversation to make their final case to the voters for why they deserve to unseat longstanding favorite Lamar Jackson of Louisville.
Jackson seemed like a virtual lock to win college football's top individual honor coming down the stretch of the regular season. The Cardinals' recent back-to-back losses to Houston and Kentucky have at least left the door open for a last-minute charge by another contender, though.
With that in mind, let's check out two different views on the race based on the information available heading into a crucial Week 14 around the country. The award will officially be handed out Saturday, Dec. 10 in New York City.
Latest Betting Odds
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | QB | Louisville | -5000 |
| 2 | Jabrill Peppers | S | Michigan | +1200 |
| 3 | Deshaun Watson | QB | Clemson | +1600 |
| 4 | J.T. Barrett | QB | Ohio State | +2500 |
| 5 | Jake Browning | QB | Washington | +4000 |
It's been a while since official oddsmakers provided their latest view of the Heisman race. Justin Hartling of OddsShark passed along the most recent update in mid-November, showing Jackson running away from the field, which certainly didn't come as a surprise at the time.
As mentioned, the dynamics of the race have changed since that point. The Cardinals went from a College Football Playoff hopeful to a complete non-factor because of the late losses. While losing to Houston is understandable, getting upset by four-touchdown underdog Kentucky was a setback.
Even though you can't pin the blame entirely on Jackson for the late struggles, it's something that must be taken into consideration by the Heisman voters.
That said, Jeff Greer of the Courier-Journal provided a statement from bookmaker Bovada on Monday explaining the lack of new odds on the board:
So while the nationwide narrative may be focused on a tightening race, it appears the situation hasn't reached a point where Jackson has lost his grip on the trophy. At least not yet. The outlook could always change after the dust settles after this weekend.
Updated Projected Odds
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | QB | Louisville | -1050 |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson | QB | Clemson | +950 |
| 3 | Dede Westbrook | WR | Oklahoma | +1500 |
| 4 | Baker Mayfield | QB | Oklahoma | +2000 |
| 5 | Jake Browning | QB | Washington | +3500 |
Although it's difficult to declare Jackson the Heisman winner at this stage based on recent results, there's been nothing to suggest he's been unseated as the favorite. Instead, it appears the massive lead he built during the first three-quarters of the campaign may hold up.
He'd be a worthy choice, of course. He was barely on the radar coming into the season before exploding to the tune of 4,928 total yards of offense and 51 touchdowns for the Cardinals. His big-play ability made the team's games must-see television for much of the year.
Rick Bozich of WDRB spoke with a variety of Heisman voters about the race, including Tim Griffin of the San Antonio Express-News, and received a common response. Jackson failed to deliver a knockout blow to the field during the final weeks, but he's still the main choice for now.
"Right now, I still would vote Lamar as my No. 1 pick, but it's shakier today than two weeks ago," Griffin told Bozich. "And I'll be waiting on the games [this] week before I make my vote on Monday after the championship games."
Meanwhile, not everybody is convinced Jackson is a lock to take home the hardware. David Purdum of ESPN.com relayed a story this week of a bettor looking to sell a ticket worth $10,000 if Jackson wins for guaranteed cash.
Purdum provided an update on the situation Thursday evening:
Clemson's Deshaun Watson has the best chance to change the race. He's coming off a six-touchdown performance against South Carolina. A similar outing in an ACC Championship Game clash with Virginia Tech could get voters to shift in his direction.
In addition, Baker Mayfield and Dede Westbrook are both having monster seasons of their own for Oklahoma ahead of a key matchup against Oklahoma State. But it's tough to imagine either one doing enough to separate himself from his teammate in the final week. A split vote would hurt them both.
The bottom line is Jackson remains out in front of the pack, but he's not quite a lock. It would take a truly special performance this weekend to take the Heisman away from him, though.
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