An Early Look at 2010's Fantasy Baseball First Round

The 2009 regular season has come to an end, so it only makes sense to start preparing for the 2010 season. We’ve already begun running down our extremely early rankings (click here to see catchers and here to see first baseman), but how about the first round of fantasy drafts? It is going to be extremely interesting this season, as there were quite a few sure fire first rounders who either had their seasons mired by injuries or simply didn’t produce:

• Jose Reyes—Given how long he was out of action and considering the injury came to his leg, can you really afford to use your top pick on him?
• David Wright—While he was at least healthy for the majority of the season, he was nearly ineffective, hitting just 10 HR. Sorry, but 27 SB isn’t enough to overcome that. Was it just a one-year aberration or is this the new David Wright? It’s a huge risk to take in the first round.
• Josh Hamilton—He was a borderline first round selection in 2009, but the injury problems insure that he’s not there again in 2010.
• Grady Sizemore—His season was cut short by injury, but even when he was healthy he was a bit of a disappointment. I was someone who believed he was overrated heading into 2009, so there’s no way I’m gambling on him in the first round in 2010.
• Jimmy Rollins—For as bad as his average was, he still had 21 HR, 31 SB, 71 RBI and 100 R. He certainly could still sneak in to the first round, though he’s borderline.

Now that we know who’s out (or close to out), let’s take a look at who is likely in:

1. Albert Pujols—St. Louis Cardinals—He’s the best hitter in the game and we all know it. This is about as easy a decision as there is.
2. Hanley Ramirez—Florida Marlins—He brings power and speed. He both drives in and scores runs. There are some people who believe that in order to be selected in the first round a player has to be able to help you in all five categories. Very few players do that better than Ramirez, and there really is no other option in the No. 2 spot.
3. Ryan Braun—Milwaukee Brewers—This is where things really get interesting because there really is no consensus No. 3 selection at this point. Braun gets the nod because like Ramirez, he can help you across the board. He hits .300, has 30/20 potential and should at worst go 100/90. That’s good enough for me.
4. Alex Rodriguez—New York Yankees—As the offseason progresses and we get news on his hip and if surgery is necessary, this ranking could obviously change. Still, he reached 30 HR and 100 RBI in a “down” season. What more can you ask?
5. Mark Teixeira—New York Yankees—As I said in the 1B rankings, can you imagine what type of numbers he would have put up in the new Yankee Stadium if he didn’t get off to such an awful start? He seems like a perfect fit for that stadium and should once again have a monster year.
6. Tim Lincecum—San Francisco Giants—This is likely to be one of the most debated picks on this list. Many people believe that selecting a starting pitcher in the first round is a huge mistake, but when you have the upside of someone like Lincecum, I completely disagree. Only two pitchers had over 250 Ks in 2009 (Lincecum & Verlander). The same could be said for 2008 (Lincecum & Sabathia).  At this point I have to expect that the NL West is going to be the same weak hitting division as it was in ‘09, meaning that he could easily post another Cy Young-esque campaign. We’ll go into much more depth of this debate as the offseason progresses, but for now this is the spot I’m leaving him in.
7. Miguel Cabrera—Detroit Tigers—It’s extremely close between Cabrera, Howard and Fielder as to the order they should come off the board and a lot of it is going to come down to preference. Cabrera brings the better average, potentially by a significant amount, so I’m willing to give up a little bit of power to get him.
8. Chase Utley—Philadelphia Phillies—He showed this season that he is a potential 30/30 player. Considering that he is the best player at his position with that type of potential, he’s a tremendous pick in the first round. Of course, this brings up a discussion on position scarcity, but we’ll save that for another day.
9. Ryan Howard—Philadelphia Phillies—The best pure power hitter in the game today.
10. Prince Fielder—Milwaukee Brewers—Is he going to be one of these players who puts up great numbers every other season? We’ll find out in 2010 for sure, but he is a bit of a risk.
11. Carl Crawford—Tampa Bay Rays —He’s tenuous in this spot, at best. If he gets dealt away from the Rays, as has been rumored, his value is going to fall. He may not even remain here as I do a bit more research. Is he really the second best outfielder or does that belong to someone like Matt Kemp? That’s going to be a debate we have early and often as we try to nail down the end of the first round.
12. Joe Mauer—Minnesota Twins—If Lincecum is the most debatable inclusion, Mauer is a close second. I know drafting catchers this early is not something that is accepted by many, but Mauer brings position scarcity to a whole new level. He’s led the league in hitting two of the last four years, but the real question is if the power he showed is for real. You have to question it, considering his 20.4 percent HR/FB rate, but if he only regresses a little bit and hits 20 HR with that type of average, he still may be worth gambling on.

Other players considered: Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria, Jimmy Rollins, Grady Sizemore

Like I said, these are extremely early rankings and figure to change (potentially considerably) as we get closer to draft day. What are your thoughts on the early draft order? Who do you agree with? Who do you disagree with? Who was omitted that should be included?

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