Bowl Predictions 2016: College Football Playoff Predictions for Top Teams
It was a fairly uneventful Saturday in the college football world, but we're now one step closer to figuring out the College Football Playoff picture.
Every serious contender that needed a victory took care of business on Saturday, staying alive in the race for the CFP. The only exception was the Louisville Cardinals, who effectively eliminated themselves from the playoff picture with a loss to the Houston Cougars on Thursday night.
Saturday's results did little to shake up the projected playoff picture, but with just two weekends remaining before the final playoff rankings are announced, the scenarios are becoming clear.
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Here's an updated look at the latest projected New Year's Six bowl games, based on how the playoff picture will come together at season's end. The projections are followed by a breakdown of the scenarios in which each of the major conferences could send a team to the playoff.
| Rose Bowl | Michigan vs. USC | Michigan |
| Cotton Bowl | Western Michigan vs. Colorado | Colorado |
| Orange Bowl | Louisville vs. Wisconsin | Wisconsin |
| Sugar Bowl | Florida vs. Oklahoma | Oklahoma |
| Peach Bowl/CFP Semifinal | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington | Alabama |
| Fiesta Bowl/CFP Semifinal | No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State | Ohio State |
Big Ten Scenarios
The Michigan Wolverines visit the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday in an elimination game.
While the winner won't be guaranteed a spot in the playoff, the loser will drop to 10-2 and will be eliminated from contention in the Big Ten and the national championship hunt.
If Michigan wins, the Wolverines advance to the conference title game and will continue to control their own destiny for a berth in the playoff. An Ohio State win, however, would send the Penn State Nittany Lions to the Big Ten Championship Game, assuming Penn State takes care of the Michigan State Spartans.
If Ohio State and Penn State win, the Buckeyes likely clinch a berth in the CFP. With Ohio State currently holding the No. 2 ranking, it would seem unlikely that the committee would drop it three spots after a victory over Michigan.
In that scenario, Penn State would have the opportunity to win the conference title and potentially join Ohio State in the playoff as a second Big Ten team.
In the Big Ten West, the scenarios are less complicated. The Wisconsin Badgers advance if they beat the Minnesota Golden Gophers. If Wisconsin slips up, it opens the door for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Wisconsin and Nebraska are tied at 6-2 in conference play, but the Badgers hold the tiebreaker due to their victory over Nebraska earlier this season.
SEC Scenarios
The Florida Gators will take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game in two weeks, but the outcome may not matter.
If Alabama takes care of business against the Auburn Tigers in its regular-season finale, the Tide likely clinch a berth in the playoff, regardless of the outcome of the conference title game.
Even with a loss to Florida, Alabama would be 12-1 with one of the most impressive resumes in the nation.
Florida still has to be considered a fringe candidate for the playoff, however. The Gators took down LSU on Saturday and have two more chances to impress the committee against the Florida State Seminoles in their regular-season finale and then against Alabama. By running the table, the Gators could sneak into the playoff depending on who else around them falters.
ACC Scenarios
The Clemson Tigers control their own destiny, and the rest of the ACC should be rooting for them. Clemson is the conference's only hope to advance to the playoff.
Just last week, the ACC was hoping to get two teams in the CFP, but thanks to Louisville's loss to Houston, it all comes down to Clemson now.
Clemson's victory over Wake Forest on Saturday clinched the ACC Atlantic for the Tigers, and they will face either the Virginia Tech Hokies or North Carolina Tar Heels in the conference title game.
Since Virginia Tech and North Carolina both have three losses, neither is a viable candidate for the playoff. As a result, an upset victory over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game would eliminate the conference from playoff contention.
Pac-12 Scenarios
The Washington Huskies are the Pac-12's lone contender for the playoff, but they may not control their own destiny.
As of right now, Washington is solidly behind Ohio State, which will likely advance to the playoff if it beats Michigan. If Ohio State beats Michigan but another team wins the Big Ten, Washington could be left out, even as the Pac-12 champ.
Washington is ranked ahead of both Wisconsin and Penn State—the two teams that could potentially be the second Big Ten team in the CFP. But the margin is likely close enough that the results of the final two weeks could shake up that order as the teams' resumes change.
Washington shouldn't get caught looking ahead at the Big Ten scenarios, however, as it hasn't even wrapped up the Pac-12 North yet. The Huskies travel to Washington State for their regular-season finale. The winner of that game will advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game.
If Washington loses, the Pac-12 gets left out. Every other team in the Pac-12 has at least two losses already.
Big 12 Scenarios
The Oklahoma Sooners and Oklahoma State Cowboys are hanging around, but each needs a long list of things to go its way.
The two rivals will face off on December 3 in a de facto Big 12 title game, with the winner holding a slight chance to sneak into the playoff.
For the Big 12 champ to have a shot, it needs Ohio State to lose, as only one team from the Big Ten would get into the playoff. Additionally, it will need Washington to lose since the Huskies are solidly ahead in the rankings and have multiple games ahead to further pad their resume.
Alternatively, the Big 12 champ could potentially leapfrog Clemson if the Tigers were to suffer an upset down the stretch.
While it's likely the Big 12 champion will be left out, there are a few scenarios for Sooners and Cowboys fans to root for in the final two weeks of the college football season.
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