Livan Hernandez: Tell My Statistics To Shut Up!

When Livan Hernandez was traded by the Washington Nationals to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2006, it was a clear-cut trade of a dominant veteran for two above average prospects.

The Diamondbacks were in a pennant race, and Livan’s guile and cunning was desperately needed.

When Livan Hernandez rejoined Washington three months ago, he came not as a returning hero but a washed up veteran who rode the waiver wire all the way back to the worst team in baseball.

And no wonder. His record was 7-8 with a monstrous 5.47 ERA with the New York Mets.

It was assumed that his only role was to fill in over the last month of the season as the team’s young pitchers reached their innings limits for the year.

Once the season was over, he would be gone, right? I mean, what hope does a team have of winning a game when their starting pitcher gives up more than five runs?

Well, actually, if Livan Hernandez is that pitcher, they stand a pretty good chance.

A pitcher’s earned run average isn’t static. It's not a guarantee like an interest rate on a money market certificate. Some nights he’ll give up fewer runs than his ERA, and some nights he’ll give up more.

But with Hernandez, that difference between the two is amazing.

I broke down Livan’s 2009 starts into two categories, “winnable” and “no chance of winning.”

Unlike the “quality start,” which requires six innings pitched with no more than three runs allowed, I used more of a sliding scale: five innings with one run allowed, six or seven innings with three runs allowed, and eight or more innings with four runs allowed.

Of his 31 starts, Livan gave his team a real chance to win 19 times while getting clobbered in the other 12 starts.

Take a look at his stats for those 12 “no chance” starts:

IP: 49

H: 94 

ER: 69 

BB: 22 

K: 28 

ERA: 12.60

Twelve times he was beaten mercilessly by the opposition, never making it out of the fifth inning. He wasn’t striking anyone out because every pitch was right down the middle of the plate.

He gave up six or more runs in seven of the 11 starts.

But compare those numbers to his 19 successful starts:

IP: 125

H: 105 

ER: 39 

BB: 38 

K: 72 

ERA: 2.80

Hernandez averaged seven innings pitched in those games, allowing just five hits, and walking three while striking out four.

He was as close to unhittable.

John Lannan, the Nationals' presumptive ace, started 33 games this season and put the team in a position to win 20 times, just one more than Hernandez.

Lannan’s ERA was 3.88, more than 1.6 fewer runs per game allowed than Livan.

Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals’ ace and the likely National League Cy Young Award winner, had a 17-4 record in 2009 with a miniscule 2.24 ERA.

He gave the Cardinals 23 chances to win, just four more than Hernandez, while allowing 3.23 fewer runs per game.

You would think that a three-run-per-game difference would be worth more than just four quality starts.

Chris Volstad, who had a 9-13, 5.21 record for the Florida Marlins (and had overall statistics similar to Livan), was able to garner just 14 “successful” starts, five fewer than Hernandez in about the same number of outings.

Livan Hernandez is an anomaly. His statistics indicate a pretty bad pitcher, but his number of successful starts is almost identical to quality pitchers like John Lannan and not too far behind aces like Chris Carpenter.

And when compared to pitchers with similar earned run averages like Chris Volstad, he has far more successful starts.

If a pitcher is going to lose, does it really matter if he loses 3-2 or 12-0? I mean, a loss is a loss. What is more important is how often he pitches well enough to win.

And Livan does just that far more often that one would assume.

The Nationals hope to sign two starting pitchers this offseason, and general manager Mike Rizzo has already indicated some interest in Hernandez for 2010.

He would be an ideal fifth starter and should win at least 10 games, looking sharp in all of them.

But please, don’t watch his other starts. It gets really ugly.