NBA Fantasy Basketball 2016-17: Deep Sleepers That Could Be Hidden Keys
Your fantasy basketball team isn't perfect. Sorry. That's just the truth.
Don't worry, though, because we're here to help.
Chances are at least one of these eight players will be floating free on your league's waiver wire—we're only looking at players unowned in at least three-quarters of Yahoo's standard leagues. Some are already performing at roster-worthy levels, contributing in less glamorous statistics that will help you beat your opponents. Others are raring for an opportunity, ready to break out upon receiving one.
Either way, they'll assist in your quest for jewelry.
Malcolm Brogdon
1 of 8
Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Position: SG
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 7.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocks.
Percent Owned: 4 percent
Opportunity is key here.
Without Khris Middleton available, the Milwaukee Bucks are remarkably thin on the wings, and the complete lack of production from both Tony Snell and Jason Terry has left the door wide open. Though Malcolm Brogdon hasn't lit it up from beyond the arc, he's at least looked like a well-rounded player capable of filling in at either guard spot.
And that's exactly what makes him an intriguing upside play. Even if he doesn't possess the ability to single-handedly win a category, he can provide slight boosts across the board. Whether he's knocking down a triple, providing a few assists or upping your rebounding totals, he can give you counting numbers.
"I came into the organization hoping to have opportunity, and I've had plenty of it," the rookie told Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I think I've taken advantage of it and I hope to continue to do so."
Just imagine if he starts connecting from downtown. And keep in mind that he did hit 45.7 percent of his treys during his final season for the Virginia Cavaliers—his third consecutive campaign north of 40 percent.
Marquese Chriss
2 of 8
Team: Phoenix Suns
Position: PF
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 5.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.3 blocks.
Percent Owned: 5 percent
If you pick up Marquese Chriss, do not get frustrated and drop him in the next few weeks. This rookie requires patience; he's still in the process of carving out a bigger role with the Phoenix Suns.
As the team continues to lose games, it should become more willing to hand him increased run. He and Dragan Bender are the future of the frontcourt, even if Alex Len and Tyson Chandler are presently spending substantial time on the floor.
So, why Chriss over Bender?
First, this power forward has already moved into the starting five for each of his last five appearances. He's only averaged 16.2 minutes throughout that stretch, and his numbers—5.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals and 0.2 blocks per contest—aren't up to the standard of your typical fantasy asset.
But the skill set he's flashed in exhibition affairs means he needs to be on your radar—and on a roster in deeper leagues.
During the preseason, he shot 37.5 percent from downtown while taking 1.3 attempts per contest, and that came in conjunction with 1.0 blocks and 1.7 steals, per RealGM. If he can mix together those three categories, he'll provide a boost most bigs can't.
Channing Frye
3 of 8
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: PF/C
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 12.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 steals and 1.0 blocks.
Percent Owned: 24 percent
There's a reason Channing Frye is called the "Buffet of Goodness."
During his prime, he was an across-the-board contributor capable of competing for double-doubles while dishing out some dimes and recording defensive stats in efficient fashion. Though he wasn't a star, he was able to over perform in fantasy in a way most big men couldn't.
The 33-year-old is now well outside his prime, but he's still proving a useful fantasy asset, especially as he's an ideal center complement to a team featuring LeBron James.
As Carter Rodriguez wrote for Fear The Sword, some regression is coming. But even as his performances normalize, Frye will remain valuable:
"Frye has never shot this well, and while his percentages may stay great due to more open shots than he’s ever gotten, they probably won’t stay this great. That said, the core message should hold. Frye was always going to be a perfect fit in Cleveland and specifically with LeBron James. There isn’t a dead-eye shooter LBJ hasn’t been able to turn into a “star” role player, and Frye is no exception.
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Ride the hot hand as long as it lasts, then sit back and rejoice at your lofty spot in the standings. And even after he starts missing a bit more frequently, you'll still be able to use him. He's carved out too large a role with the defending champions to be relegated to the waiver wire.
Jamal Murray
4 of 8
Team: Denver Nuggets
Position: SG
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 7.2 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.4 steals and 0.1 blocks.
Percent Owned: 23 percent
Jamal Murray can flat-out shoot the basketball.
Don't be dissuaded by the 0-of-17 start to his NBA career. If anything, thank your lucky stars that it dropped his ownership percentage so you might have a shot at picking him up before the inevitable offensive breakout.
Ever since his first four games with the Denver Nuggets, the Kentucky product has averaged 11.0 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.6 assists while shooting 43.1 percent from the field, 45.7 percent from downtown and 83.3 percent from the charity stripe. That stretch includes his ridiculous four triples in 27 seconds against the Portland Trail Blazers, as well as a few quick-release treys that highlight just how talented this shooter is at such a young age (19).
Opportunity is not an issue anymore, not with shots starting to fall while Gary Harris remains on the shelf. Murray will play big minutes for this up-and-coming Denver unit, and head coach Mike Malone has already shown a willingness to give his rookie 2-guard a green light—though he has noted Murray is sometimes prone to over-dribbling.
If you need a boost in the scoring categories or are just struggling to find three-point production, hop on this bandwagon before it fills up.
Mike Muscala
5 of 8
Team: Atlanta Hawks
Position: PF/C
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 9.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.7 blocks.
Percent Owned: 22 percent
As Dan Favale wrote for Bleacher Report while calling Mike Muscala one of the breakout players no one saw coming, the big man's well-rounded skill set has guaranteed him plenty of playing time:
"Moving without the ball is his forte, but he has no qualms attacking off the dribble and is making quicker, more precise passes. Running him off the three-point line, where he's posting a 37.5 percent clip, is a sound strategy. But he's shooting around 68 percent on two-pointers outside 10 feet of the basket and just over 86 percent at the rim.
Teams can't even hope Muscala's defense gets him benched. He has proved capable of chasing power forwards and is defending the rim with relative ease. Only Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap have challenged more looks at the iron for the Hawks, and Muscala is holding opponents to sub-40 percent shooting on those point-blank opportunities.
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Muscala has done everything for the Atlanta Hawks, carving out a huge role as Howard's primary backup while also showing an ability to play alongside traditional big men at the 4.
The ball-sharing schemes fit his game perfectly, allowing him to constantly set up for open jumpers and eschew the interior physicality that can sometimes throw him off. As long as he continues to play incredible defense, there's no reason to reallocate his minutes elsewhere.
Keep in mind that you won't ever get glamorous totals out of Muscala; he's not going to score 20 points per game or challenge for double-doubles. But he will record a few assists and defensive stats while providing more triples than you'd typically receive from your center spot. And best of all, he'll help all of your shooting percentages.
Larry Nance Jr.
6 of 8
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Position: PF
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 6.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.4 blocks.
Percent Owned: 19 percent
Larry Nance Jr.'s ability to finish around the basket is unreal. And we're not just talking about the posterizing dunks he occasionally throws down while reminding everyone of his father's exploits.
As a rookie, the power forward connected on 68.3 percent of his shots from within three feet and 46.7 percent of his attempts from between three and 10 feet. This year, those numbers are up to 85.7 and 57.1 respectively. And so long as he continues to convert when attacking the hoop, Los Angeles Lakers head coach Luke Walton will continue drawing up plays for him.
But that's not the biggest reason he finds himself on this list.
Nance is quickly becoming an ace defender—the Lakers are allowing 10.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, shifting their leaguewide rank from dead last without him to No. 4 with him. He records an impressive number of steals and the occasional high-flying block, but even they're not as important as his overall ability.
After all, his defense guarantees him playing time. And playing time guarantees such an active player the raw numbers you're looking for.
He's already one of just 17 contributors averaging at least 5.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.5 steals. Of the other 16, only Al-Farouq Aminu (40 percent, which is a depressed figure because of his calf injury) and Trevor Booker (68 percent) are owned in under 70 percent of standard Yahoo leagues.
Lucas Nogueira
7 of 8
Team: Toronto Raptors
Position: C
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 5.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.8 blocks.
Percent Owned: 22 percent
It's typically easy to find fantasy scoring help. If your team is struggling to record rebounds, there's always plenty of assistance on the waiver wire. Need assists? Just pick up a point guard.
But defensive stats are typically more elusive, especially because they can so often come in conjunction with percentage-based trouble. If you find a shot-blocking machine, for example, he might just tank your team's free-throw percentage.
That's not an issue for Lucas Nogueira, whose offensive role with the Toronto Raptors involves little more than finishing plays around the rim. He's a dominant per-minute rebounder (10.9 per 36 minutes), shooting a ridiculous 88.2 percent from the field and 75.0 percent at the charity stripe. Even when those numbers normalize—two-thirds of the center's makes won't be dunks all season—they'll still remain strong enough to avoid mitigating his defense's impact.
Seventy-four different players are averaging at least 1.2 steals so far. A dozen are posting no fewer than 1.8 blocks per game. But Nogueira joins Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo as one of only three in both clubs at the same time, and there aren't many reasons to think his production is unsustainable.
His steals per 36 minutes are right in line with his career averages, he's always possessed immense shot-blocking potential and he'll only keep playing significant minutes. There's no reason Nogueira should be available in half of standard fantasy leagues, much less in 78 percent of them.
Norman Powell
8 of 8
Team: Toronto Raptors
Position: SG
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 6.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.1 blocks.
Percent Owned: 2 percent
As The Athletic's Eric Koreen pointed out via Twitter, Norman Powell ranks ninth in total minutes for the Toronto Raptors but fourth in minutes played during the fourth quarter. That, in a nutshell, underscores just how important the young wing has become to head coach Dwane Casey's schemes.
Powell is capable of backing up either DeMar DeRozan or DeMarre Carroll; he could play alongside both in smaller lineups. Whether his team needs a three-point marksman or a defensive ace, he's capable of contributing.
As the season progresses, the sophomore should take on even more minutes. He's a speculative fantasy play right now, but getting your hands on him before anyone else could provide you with the necessary boost in a few short weeks. His breakout is going to happen; it's just a matter of time before he starts playing 25 minutes per game instead of just under 15.
And let's take a gander at what would happen if he maintained his exact level of performance while spending that much more time on the floor: All of a sudden, he'd be averaging 10.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.2 blocks while shooting 48.7 percent from the field, 45.0 percent from beyond the arc and 78.9 percent from the charity stripe.
Better still, he'd be making 1.6 triples per game—something only 64 players are doing thus far.
If you can spare space on your bench for Powell, do so.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Current fantasy ownership numbers are determined by placement within Yahoo’s standard leagues, but the complete lists can only be accessed within your own personal league.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math and are current heading into games on Nov. 18.
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