Bowl Predictions 2016: Updated CFP Projections After Week 13 Rankings
Just when we thought we knew which teams were destined for this year's College Football Playoff, the collective collegiate world decided to go full-on wacky.
Three of the nation's Top Four teams lost this past weekend, which opened the door for a whole new host of playoff contenders—or did it?
Despite the trifecta of top-team losses we just witnessed, only one team, the Ohio State Buckeyes, moved up and into a coveted Top Four slot. Clemson and Michigan both remain, while upstart Washington had its playoff hopes significantly battered by USC.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Michigan and Ohio State, of course, meet at the end of this month, so only one will probably remain in the playoff hunt. How will things unfold for the rest of the programs in contention? Let's go ahead and make some updated predictions.
We'll try to predict which team will remain in the national title hunt at the end of the regular season, and we'll also examine some teams to watch in the season's final weeks. First, though, let's take a look at the latest CFP rankings.
Projected Final Eight
| 1 | Alabama |
| 2 | Ohio State |
| 3 | Clemson |
| 4 | Louisville |
| 5 | Washington |
| 6 | Oklahoma |
| 7 | Michigan |
| 8 | Wisconsin |
Teams to Watch
No. 1 Alabama
Mighty Alabama remains undefeated and in the No. 1 spot. Assuming the team doesn't lose before the College Football Playoff is announced, the Crimson Tide should be a lock for the title tournament. However, there are still reasons to follow Alabama through the remainder of the regular season.
Perhaps the biggest reason is there is no guarantee the team will remain undefeated. As we saw last weekend, assuming anything at this stage in the season is unwise. The Tide still have a meeting with No. 15 Auburn on November 26, and the Tigers could prove to be a tough challenge even in Tuscaloosa.
If Alabama can make it past the Iron Bowl with an unblemished record, the team will then have to navigate December's SEC Championship.
Does any of this matter? Possibly not.
"No challenger awaits from here to Atlanta," Kevin Scarbinsky of AL.com recently wrote. "No contender has identified itself as a team with the reasonable potential to take down the Tide before the playoffs."
If Scarbinsky is right, then the only reason to watch Alabama between now and the playoff is to see what kind of force opponents should be fearing come playoff time.
If a team does manage to upset Alabama, however, then things get incredibly interesting. Seeing as how Michigan and Clemson both remained in the Top Four after last week's losses, it's difficult to envision a one-loss Alabama team falling out of contention.
If a one-loss Alabama team does stay in the Top Four, though, would the playoff committee be inclined to push one of the other top Four Teams out? Would a loss for Alabama really even matter at this point?
These are questions we probably won't be forced to ask in 2016, but it's worth following Alabama the rest of the way regardless.
No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan
We might as well mention Ohio State and Michigan in the same collective breath, as their futures regarding the playoff are invariably linked. The two teams face off on November 26, and the loser of the contest is likely out of the running.
Some might feel that Michigan should already be out of the playoff chase or at least behind No. 4 Clemson at this point. ESPN's David Hale asked that very question:
The matchup between Ohio State and Michigan will take care of one team's playoff spot.
It will then be easier to justify a team leapfrogging No. 4 Clemson than it would pushing a No. 3 Clemson team out of the playoff if the committee deems the Tigers are not worthy.
Of course, Michigan's three wins over teams now ranked in the Top 10 may have something to do with the team's ranking.
Things could get really interesting at the top if Ohio State manages to beat Michigan, something we're going to predict today given the team's home-field advantage later this month. There's a chance the Buckeyes wouldn't even appear in the Big Ten title game if they do, as Penn State holds a head-to-head victory and an identical conference record.
If Michigan takes the victory in Columbus, then the Wolverines could be headed to the Big Ten Championship and the No. 2 spot in the playoff rankings. Assuming Clemson doesn't suffer another loss, the Tigers' place in the playoff is probably secure in this scenario.
We'll figure out which of the Big Ten powerhouses remain in just a couple of weeks.
No. 5 Louisville
One team that will definitely be waiting for the outcome of Ohio State-Michigan matchup is the fifth-ranked Louisville Cardinals. If Louisville can get through its remaining games unscathed, then the team could slide into the playoff once either the Buckeyes or Wolverines are handed a loss.
It would be hard to argue against including a team whose only loss this season was at Clemson. However, an argument will likely be made that a one-loss Washington team deserves the last playoff spot instead.
Alternatively—and specifically if Washington suffers another loss—the committee could opt for a two-loss team like Penn State or Wisconsin if they secure the Big Ten title.
The Cardinals, who average a whopping 49.6 points per game, may want to rack up some style points over the next couple weeks in order to help their case. While blowing out the likes of Kentucky and Houston might not necessarily impress committee members, it certainly won't hurt.
Louisville's surest shot into the postseason is probably another Clemson loss, no matter how unlikely that may be. Knowing that at least one of the Top Four teams will probably be out by decision time, though, has to give the Cardinals confidence heading into the final stretch.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
