Bleacher Report's Expert College Football Predictions for Week 12
The buzz leading up to Week 11 was that it would be a down week.
Well, for a down week, it jumped up to bite some of college football's top contenders. Five of the top 10 teams went down, which essentially hit the reset button on landscape of the sport heading into the final few weeks of the season.
What will Week 12 have in store?
Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer, Barrett Sallee, Christopher Walsh, Greg Couch and Michael Felder break it down in this week's edition of expert picks.
Will Oklahoma Trip Up on the Road Against West Virginia?
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Adam Kramer
No, but it will be awfully close. This feels like it might be the game of the weekend, and West Virginia will give the Sooners problems. But ultimately, Oklahoma finds a way to win a thriller.
Baker Mayfield has put together a brilliant second half of the season somewhat quietly. His performance has served as the catalyst for Oklahoma's playoff push, and that trend will continue. There's just too much offense, and I'm not certain why we aren't talking about Dede Westbrook more either.
He's scored 14 touchdowns the last seven games. He'll add to that total here.
Barrett Sallee
My, how chaotic would it be if we have to seriously start talking about West Virginia in the College Football Playoff?
It won't happen, though. Oklahoma knows what's in front of it. It has been getting consistent play from Mayfield and Westbrook. The running game is cranking with Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, and an unblemished conference record would be a strong selling point to the College Football Playoff selection committee, given the chaos that's unfolding around the country.
Oklahoma will get a couple of key turnovers, score at will and get a big road win.
Christopher Walsh
Oklahoma is the only remaining undefeated team in Big 12 play and has survived a number of injuries. With running backs Perine and Mixon both looking good, and the passing game featuring Mayfield and Westbrook, the Sooners will have too much for the home team and keep the conference's slim playoff hopes alive.
Greg Couch
The problem with playing in the Big 12 is that you can build up a great record without having beaten anyone. Take West Virginia. Oklahoma is the Big 12's last, and only, shot at the College Football Playoff. Mayfield is playing well, and the Sooners are just about back to where they were last year. For winning the Big 12, OU should get an award, something like best player in the minor leagues. Oklahoma 31-28.
Michael Felder
No, Oklahoma will get a win on the road. As much as I love the Mountaineers secondary—and they have some hosses—their limited firepower is a handicap on the other side of the ball. Westbrook and Mayfield are going to hook up for big plays, and I question Dana Holgorsen's team's ability to respond consistently.
Which Upstart Survives, Washington State or Colorado?
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Kramer
I hate to be the guy who answers a question with a question, but how great is it that Colorado and Washington State are playing in a game that matters this much? What a season for both teams.
As strange as this sounds, defense will be the deciding factor here, and both units have far surpassed expectations. Simply put, I trust Colorado's group a bit more, and the Buffs will find enough offense to complement this side of the ball.
Colorado inches one step closer to a playoff berth. This is a sentence I actually typed in the year 2016 and meant, I think.
Sallee
Like Adam, I can't believe this is a big game in late November.
I like Colorado's resiliency and ability to fight through a midseason quarterback injury to Sefo Liufau. I also love the ability of running back Phillip Lindsay to control the clock and keep Washington State quarterback Luke Falk standing on the sideline.
Colorado will "ugly this game up" with an effective ground game, make it difficult for the Cougars offense to put together consistent drives and set up a de facto Pac-12 South championship game against Utah next week in Boulder.
What a world.
Walsh
Who would have thought these teams would be leading their respective divisions? Last year, Colorado was playing its first game without Liufau after he suffered a season-ending foot injury and lost on the road 27-3. The Buffaloes have good balance on offense and make big plays on defense. They survive at home, but not by much.
Couch
Easy: Colorado. The Buffs have a legit national-level defense. True, they can't block on offense. But the game is in Boulder, and CU is on the verge of getting back in the CFP picture based on the most dysfunctional athletic department in the country—this side of Rutgers, anyway—that happened to stumble onto the right coach. Buffs win.
Felder
I'll take Colorado. Both teams are playing good football, including sound defense. Washington State beat up on Cal quarterback Davis Webb something fierce Saturday night, and the Buffs secondary is as legit as it gets. They have a couple of NFL guys back there. I'm riding with the Rise of Ralphie. It is real, and they continue to push toward a Pac-12 South title.
Can Florida Polish Off the SEC East with a Win at LSU?
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Kramer
Nope. That will have to drag out a little longer, which I know everyone is thrilled about.
LSU, with the exception of that Alabama meat grinder, is absolutely balling. When the backup running back (Derrius Guice) is running for more than 200 yards in a game, something is going right. Even though the passing game remains a work in progress, the defense and the running game are suffocating.
Interim coach Ed Orgeron is getting closer to making this LSU job search really weird. A win here helps that cause a great deal.
Sallee
It's really difficult to pick Florida in this game for reasons Walsh will tell you all about below.
LSU is still one-dimensional on offense by necessity, but it takes a stout defense to slow down Guice and Leonard Fournette to force LSU to get to the one dimension that doesn't work as well—the passing game.
Normal Florida teams can do that, but not this one. Not with an injury list that is as long as Homer's Odyssey. LSU will win ugly early Saturday afternoon and force all of us to turn our attention to Rocky Top, where Tennessee will need to beat Missouri (and Vanderbilt next week) to win the SEC East for the first time since 2007.
Walsh
Let's see here…quarterback Luke Del Rio (shoulder/knee) is out. Safety Marcus Maye (broken arm) out. Linebacker Alex Anzalone (broken arm) out. Center Cam Dillard (knee) out. Linebacker Jarrad Davis (ankle) out. Left tackle David Sharpe (ankle) out. Defensive end Bryan Cox Jr. (ankle) out. Wide receiver C.J. Worton (ankle) out.
Other Gators have been ruled out as well, while pass-rusher CeCe Jefferson may try to play with a foot injury. Meanwhile, LSU is still mad at Florida over the whole rescheduling thing. This game will not be close.
Couch
Nope. LSU might be headed for the Sugar Bowl, and then it likely will fire its second coach of the year, Orgeron. Next year, maybe LSU can fire three coaches all the way to the playoff. But this season, Florida is too banged up, and the game is at LSU, which has momentum.
Felder
No, the Gators are going to lose to the Tigers. LSU is going to push to punish them on the ground, and without Anzalone or Maye, the Gators have a tall mountain to climb. A missing Jarrad Davis is another problem, and the Gators defense is a shadow of the hammer it was earlier in the year. Guice and whatever we get out of Fournette should be enough to topple the Gators.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Will Clemson Get Back on Track at Wake Forest?
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Kramer
That depends. For starters, what is Clemson right now?
Will the Tigers win this game? Yes. Although Wake Forest gave Louisville a scare for three quarters, the Clemson defense and offense will be too much for the Demon Deacons. The Tigers will stay on track for a playoff spot in that regard.
But anything more than that seems hard to guarantee. This is a complicated team. Deshaun Watson's turnovers are concerning, as is the team's inability to pick up short yardage on the ground, which doomed Clemson last week.
While they are capable of beating a decent team by 50 points, I am curious to see how the Tigers respond. It feels like they played with fire all year; perhaps this is a wake-up call.
Sallee
Yes, because as Kramer suggested, last week was the wake-up call.
Clemson left the field last Saturday thinking its chances at the playoff had been diminished. But seven hours and several upsets later, its path is as clear as it ever was.
Watson's three interceptions last week were concerning, but the fight that he and the rest of the offense showed was not. The loss to Pitt wasn't as much about Clemson's disappointing as it was Panthers offensive coordinator Matt Canada's solidifying himself as a bona fide coaching superstar.
The Tigers will rebound nicely, polish off the division title and continue their march toward a second straight College Football Playoff berth.
Walsh
Before answering whether Clemson "will" get back on track, you almost have to wonder if it "can" bounce back. This isn't the same Tigers team as a year ago, and Wake Forest played Louisville tough until the Cardinals pulled away in the second half. Last week, Watson passed for an ACC-record 580 yards but also had three critical interceptions, two at the goal line, in the loss to Pitt. Look for Clemson to win, but if it doesn't start playing better, the Tigers will miss the playoff.
Couch
Clemson is in one of those grind-it-out seasons following one where everything went right. The Tigers still have too much talent, and a quarterback, to lose to Wake Forest. Look for another grind: Clemson 30-27.
Felder
Yes, Clemson will win and get back on track against Wake Forest. Wake put together a valiant effort against Louisville, only to have the Cardinals offense explode in the final quarter of the game and put the Deacons away. While I expect Wake to incorporate some of the wrinkles Pitt offensive coordinator Matt Canada used to abuse the Clemson defense, we'll get a better showing from Tigers defensive coordinator Brent Venables' unit and ultimately a win for the Tigers.
Can Utah End the Mark Helfrich Era at Oregon?
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Kramer
One could argue that it already ended and this decision has been made. Or maybe Oregon will give Mark Helfrich a shot in 2017, although this feels increasingly less likely.
Either way, when Oregon loses—and I don't see an upset here—I'm not sure it will serve as a death blow one way or another. This is a lost season for a team that seemed destined to compete for the Pac-12 title every year not long ago.
That is not the case anymore, and barring some sort of radical turn of events, it likely won't be next year. Whether Helfrich is the one tasked with leading this team come next fall will be a fascinating development over the next few weeks. But right now, Utah can run the ball, and that will be an enormous problem this weekend.
Sallee
Yes, without a doubt. In fact, I'm surprised it didn't happen shortly after Stanford destroyed Oregon last week.
Utah will expose the defensive ineptitude the Ducks have displayed with a heavy dose of running back Joe Williams. What's more, the Utes defense will rattle quarterback Justin Herbert and put an end to any hopes Helfrich had of making this a back-and-forth shootout.
Utah will roll into a de facto Pac-12 South title game next week versus Colorado and put an end to the Helfrich era in Eugene.
Walsh
With last week's 52-27 loss to Stanford—many are wondering if it was Helfrich's last home game as Oregon's head coach—the Ducks fell to 3-7 overall and 1-6 in conference play. It also guaranteed the program's first losing season since 2004. There can't be much optimism in Eugene, as the team has lost seven of the last eight games. If Utah isn't considered the knockout punch, one has to think rival Oregon State on Nov. 26 would be.
Couch
Well, it could be his last hope. But the end for Helfrich came because he was unable to follow up the amazing success story of Marcus Mariota by landing a good quarterback. That seems impossible. Cool campus. Great town. Top football program. Quarterback who showed you can hit it big there with that coach after coming from nowhere. How do you not recruit off that? Utah by a lot.
Felder
Utah will beat Oregon, this much I know. As for the end of the Helfrich era, it's tough to get a bead on what's going to happen. The report from ESPN.com's Darren Rovell that Nike founder Phil Knight is willing to pay big bucks for a new coach could spell the end. Others say he needs full support to spearhead a revitalization of the program, according to Andrew Greif of the Oregonian. I'm not sure what we've seen out of Helfrich that inspires the allotment of more time. Watching Oregon work through this will be a major focus heading into December.
Which Big Ten East Contender Should Be on Upset Alert?
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Kramer
Ultimately, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State will all hold serve this week, although that is a boring answer, so let's not do this.
If I were to pick a team, it would have to be Michigan. The Wolverines should still respond well, although the change at quarterback is significant.
It's not just the fact that Wilton Speight has played well and might be out a while; it's also that John O'Korn, the backup who is being called to action, plays the position quite differently, so the offense will have to adjust.
Indiana also isn't bad when it's not fumbling the ball a few hundred times per half.
Sallee
Oh, definitely Penn State because it's playing that powerhouse known as Rutg....OK, I can't finish that sentence. Penn State is going to blow out Rutgers.
I'm with Kramer and will choose Michigan. The Wolverines offense should be able to transition from Speight to O'Korn. But the combination of Indiana's potent offense and defensive coordinator Tom Allen's sneaky-good defense should allow the Hoosiers to hang around for a while.
At that point, who knows? Maybe the Hoosiers get a bounce or two and become a serious Team Chaos threat.
Walsh
It should be none of them.
Penn State is at Rutgers. Coming off back-to-back 62-3 wins over Nebraska and Maryland, Ohio State is at Michigan State, which crushed Rutgers last week for its first conference win. Michigan ought to be extra motivated after losing last week to Iowa and is celebrating senior day at home against Indiana. Maybe Indiana or Michigan State catches its opponent looking ahead to next week's Michigan at Ohio State showdown, but I doubt it. I'll go with Michigan due to the question at the quarterback spot.
Couch
No way Michigan State beats Ohio State or Rutgers beats Penn State. So by default, Michigan should be on upset alert against Indiana. The Hoosiers have skyrocketed to mediocrity this year. Michigan's offense looked terrible at Iowa, and reports from mgoblog.com are that Speight broke his collarbone. If that's true, then Indiana has a shot. Pick: Michigan 35-14.
Felder
I'll go with Ohio State. The last two weeks of blowouts have created a renewed sense of supreme power in Columbus as the Buckeyes get set to take on Sparty. The youth movement in East Lansing has created some confidence, and the young guys are looking to close a bowl-less 2016 campaign with some positive vibes. I don't think Michigan State beats Ohio State, but that's the game I'm watching for a potential upset. I expect Michigan will be focused to get back to winning against Indiana. And Penn State, well, it's playing Rutgers.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
