Ohio State vs Michigan State: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Before the start of the 2016 season, the Ohio State-Michigan State matchup was one of the most highly anticipated games across the country. The Buckeyes were shooting for revenge after the Spartans derailed their playoff run a year ago, and MSU head coach Mark Dantonio would get another opportunity to validate the strong program he had built in East Lansing.
A surprisingly disastrous season for Michigan State (3-7) has spoiled the national intrigue in this game, however. After winning their first two games, including what looked like a marquee victory over Notre Dame that launched them into the Associated Press Top 10, the Spartans dropped seven straight games before pasting Big Ten doormat Rutgers last week.
Meanwhile, Ohio State (9-1) has looked like one of the best teams in the country, with its lone blemish coming on the road to a Top 10 Penn State team.
But even with the drastically different seasons these two teams have put together, both are looking forward to meeting each other on Saturday.
Here's a detailed look at the keys to victory and players to watch for Ohio State and Michigan State this Saturday.
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday
Time: Noon ET
Place: Spartan Stadium—East Lansing, Michigan
TV: ESPN
Spread: Ohio State (-23.5), per Odds Shark
Ohio State Keys to Victory
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Keep Unleashing Curtis Samuel
Curtis Samuel's usage has been one of the most closely watched developments for Ohio State fans this year—and for good reason. The all-purpose back has proved to be the team's most explosive playmaker on the ground and in an aerial attack that desperately needs a vertical threat.
Samuel was mysteriously neglected on the road against Penn State, receiving just two carries, one of which he broke for a 74-yard touchdown. In the three games since, Samuel has averaged a hair over five carries per game and has a trio of rushing touchdowns.
But the biggest increase in his role has come in the vertical passing game. The Buckeyes are sending him on more deep routes, where he can use his speed to beat corners in one-on-one matchups, which has resulted in touchdowns of 75 and 36 yards in the last two games.
Stop LJ Scott
Running back LJ Scott has been the most dependable option in Michigan State's offense this season.
The wideouts have been mostly solid, with R.J. Shelton leading the way and true freshman Donnie Corley emerging as a solid complement. But the offense is at its best when Scott is pounding away on the interior, and he was at his best against the best defense he faced in Michigan, when he ran the ball 22 times for 139 yards and a touchdown.
Statistically, Ohio State's run defense is more stout than Michigan's, ranking 11th nationally compared to the Wolverines' No. 13 standing.
If the Buckeyes contain Scott, they'll have a great chance to win.
Michigan State Keys to Victory
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Put J.T. Barrett to the Test
When J.T. Barrett is on his game, Ohio State is hard to beat. When he struggles, though, the Buckeyes aren't the unstoppable force they've shown at times this season.
During the three-week stretch at the start of the conference season, Indiana, Wisconsin and Penn State did a good job of pressuring Barrett into quick, low-percentage throws. The Buckeyes completed just 58 percent of their passes during that three-week stretch.
But Barrett and the passing attack are finding their bearings, especially with explosive plays, which has led to back-to-back 59-point victories.
The Spartans have to put pressure on Barrett and shorten his passing windows.
Win the Turnover Battle
Mark Dantonio built the Spartans program on the back of a strong, unyielding defense, but the unit has been uncharacteristically gashed this season. Michigan State ranks a respectable 31st nationally in total defense, but it has hemorrhaged points, surrendering 27.1 per game, which ranks 59th.
But the biggest drop-off for the Spartans has come in the turnover department.
A season ago, Connor Cook led an efficient offense, and the defense generated havoc and turnovers at a big rate. The Spartans ranked fourth in the country in turnover margin, but through 10 games this year, they've plummeted to No. 92.
Michigan State needs to win the turnover battle to win this game. That's a recipe Penn State used despite generating just 276 total yards and 17 points on offense.
Ohio State Players to Watch
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Noah Brown
Noah Brown looked like Ohio State's next great wideout in the 45-24 rout of Oklahoma in Week 3. The redshirt sophomore, fresh off a year away from action as he rehabbed a broken leg, hauled in five catches for 72 yards and four touchdowns.
But since that big showing, Brown has hauled in just two touchdowns over the Buckeyes' last seven games, and during Ohio State's 62-point explosions against Nebraska and Maryland, he registered just three catches for 36 yards.
Brown is a big playmaker for the Buckeyes offense, and the staff needs to find a way to keep him involved.
Robert Landers
Ohio State's secondary has been dominant despite replacing three starters from last year's team, and the linebacker corps has been bolstered by the surprisingly great play of Jerome Baker, but one of the quietest emerging forces on the defense comes in the form of defensive tackle Robert Landers.
Like the secondary, Ohio State was replacing three starters along its defensive line, and the coaching staff turned to a host of underclassmen to fill key roles. Landers has been an absolute stud on the interior, and his anticipation and release off the ball make him one of the best in the Big Ten.
Even when he's not making the tackle, his quickness is a disruptive force that blows up plays in a way that isn't reflected on the stat sheet. He'll be an integral part in Ohio State's efforts to slow down LJ Scott and Michigan State's rushing attack.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Michigan State Players to Watch
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Tyler O'Connor
One of the biggest reasons for Michigan State's struggles this season is its failure to effectively replace Connor Cook, the record-setting quarterback who was drafted by the Oakland Raiders last spring.
The Spartans have bounced back and forth between Tyler O'Connor, who was behind center when Michigan State upset Ohio State last year, Brian Lewerke and Damion Terry.
Despite his up-and-down play, the Spartans stuck with O'Connor, and he seems to be on an upswing because of it. He's completed 68 percent of his passes over the last two games and threw for three touchdowns (against no interceptions) in Michigan State's 49-0 rout of Rutgers.
But O'Connor will need to be at his best to beat the Buckeyes this year because, unlike in 2015, he doesn't have one of the country's strongest defenses to fall back on.
Riley Bullough
Speaking of the defense, Michigan State may be down its best defender in Malik McDowell when the Buckeyes come calling on Saturday.
The stout defensive lineman suffered an ankle injury two weeks ago against Illinois that sidelined him for the Rutgers game. Mark Dantonio is uncertain whether he'll be cleared to play against the Buckeyes, as he was left off the official two-deep depth chart that was released on Tuesday.
Is that gamesmanship by the Spartans coach, or is McDowell's status still uncertain?
If it is, that'll put more pressure on Riley Bullough, the Spartans' outstanding linebacker. Bullough ranks second on the team behind McDowell with 6.5 tackles for loss, and the coaching staff will need him to be aggressive to shut down Ohio State's high-flying offense.
What They're Saying
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Ohio State is in the thick of the playoff race, but head coach Urban Meyer isn't focusing on the rankings, per Tim Shoemaker of Eleven Warriors:
"I will not watch it," Meyer said of the rankings reveal. "We've got to get ready for Michigan State."
Mark Dantonio talked about the effect that beating Rutgers had on his team in the locker room, per the team's official website:
"I think we needed that. I think we needed to play well on all ends of the spectrum which we were able to do, and that was something that we needed to happen. So, you know, we were sort of out there in the desert a little bit. So doesn't mean that we're back, but I think it meant a lot to our football team and our players in terms of how we played and how we played with each other and the energy that existed on the football field.
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While Meyer is focusing on Michigan State, quarterback J.T. Barrett is pondering playoff scenarios, according to CSN Chicago's Vinnie Duber:
"If we win out all our games, Big Ten championship or not, you're not going to put us in? Like you're going to leave Ohio State out? That's how I see it. That doesn't make sense to me. With that, I know Big Ten Championships and conference championships are a major thing, but then you're talking about one of those two-loss teams. It's something totally different. I think if we won our games, that's the only thing we can control, the only thing we can handle. ... We control winning games, and if we do that, I feel like we've done our part.
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Dantonio is relishing the opportunity to play the spoiler, according to Andrew Lind of Eleven Warriors:
"We come to compete in every game, first of all. But we have reasons to play. Even if it's in spoiler fashion. There are possibilities as we go forward. And I think that as we look at who we're playing — two very good football teams, two Top 10 football teams — so we got our work cut out for us as we always do. But we got every reason to play.
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Prediction
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It won't be pretty, but Ohio State will get its revenge on Saturday.
Frigid, windy and rainy conditions will make for a sloppy game. Neither team will throw for more than 200 yards, but J.T. Barrett will make a huge impact on the ground, running for 90 yards and two touchdowns in the 18-point win.
Michigan State's offense will have a hard time moving the ball. LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes will have a decent showing, combining for 130 yards and a touchdown, but the rest of the unit will struggle. Tyler O'Connor will throw two interceptions, one of which Gareon Conley will return 40 yards for a touchdown as the Buckeyes pull away.
Ohio State 28, Michigan State 10
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
