
NCAA Football Rankings 2016: Analyzing Week 12 Polls, Top 25 College Standings
Three of the Top Four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings went down this weekend, yet the Week 12 Associated Press and Amway Coaches polls did not experience a massive amount of turnover.
Clemson, Michigan and Washington experienced their first losses of the 2016 season, yet none of the three schools significantly dropped in either major poll. Thus, the handful of teams in contention for a national title largely remains the same.
With that in mind, let us take a look at the two polls in question, as well as some analysis of the Week 12 rankings. The full standings for each conference can be found at NCAA.com.
If the list of teams with legitimate playoff hopes was considered short, that group became even smaller on Saturday, as two teams ranked in the Top 11 of both polls last week faltered. Auburn stumbled to a 13-7 loss against a struggling Georgia team, while a hobbled Texas A&M squad collapsed late to fall at home 29-28 to Mississippi. This all but assures that Alabama will represent the SEC West in Atlanta on Dec. 3.
The Week 12 Top 10 for each poll looks practically identical, as the first eight teams are the same, with Penn State and West Virginia being flipped at No. 9 and No. 10 in each ranking. Yet if the polls are any indication, the playoff picture as a whole remains very much unchanged.
Clemson fell to No. 5 in each poll, as Louisville became the highest-ranked ACC team at No. 3. Despite the 43-42 loss to Pittsburgh, the Tigers still control their own destiny since they own a tiebreaker after downing the Cardinals earlier in the season.
Louisville has been wildly inconsistent of late, with blowout wins over Boston College and North Carolina State sprinkled in with extended periods of struggle against Duke, Virginia and Wake Forest. The Cardinals only have Houston on Thursday as a remaining quality opponent, while Clemson will likely have the ACC Championship to play.
ESPN's Danny Kanell added a slightly different perspective while spelling out the same scenario:
That same notion also applies to Michigan, who dropped a 14-13 stunner at Iowa to fall to No. 4 in the polls. The fate of the Wolverines' season will still largely be decided on Nov. 26 at No. 2 Ohio State. A win over its rival would give Michigan a possible matchup with Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, but what happens if it loses one of those two games?
An Ohio State win over Michigan along with Penn State winning out would give the Nittany Lions the Big Ten East title, as Big Ten tiebreaker rules dictate the team's victory over the Buckeyes would make it the division winner. ESPN's Josh Moyer noted that this possibility's likelihood skyrocketed on Saturday:
This scenario would also spark some major questions. Does Penn State then become the first two-loss team to make the playoff if it wins the Big Ten Championship? The same applies to the Badgers, as they are ranked higher in the polls and would be a two-loss Big Ten champion no matter who they may win against in Indianapolis. Also, what would the playoff committee do if Ohio State is sitting at 11-1, but without a conference title?
The same level of uncertainty does not exist with the future of the Big 12 or the Pac-12.
Washington dropped three spots to No. 7 in the polls after losing 26-13 at home to USC, and it will need some major upsets of the teams ranked ahead of it to make a playoff push. The Huskies will have a matchup with Washington State, ranked No. 20 in both polls, as their top remaining game unless USC comes out of the Pac-12 South after losses by Colorado and Utah.
The polls also indicate the Big 12's title hopes are slim. Oklahoma comes in at No. 8 after running through the conference so far, yet the Sooners' two early-season losses to Houston and Ohio State will likely keep them out of the playoff unless they get major help via upsets in other conferences.
The same can be said about West Virginia, as it lacks a marquee win this season. Yet ESPN's Jake Trotter noted that this could change in Week 12:
"We'll have a showdown in Morgantown next weekend. West Virginia has defeated every Big 12 member since joining... except for Oklahoma.
— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) November 12, 2016"
As for the big movers in this week's polls, USC went from unranked to No. 15 in the AP rankings, and it jumped seven spots from unranked to No. 19 in the coaches poll. This move was certainly justified, as the Trojans are among the nation's hottest teams at the moment.
Over USC's current six-game winning streak, freshman quarterback Sam Darnold is completing 68.5 percent of his throws for 1,772 yards and 20 touchdowns. The Trojans are also allowing just 18 points per game over that span, and Washington certainly discovered that USC is a team nobody wants to play against right now.
Statistics are courtesy of NCAA.com.
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