USC vs. UCLA: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Los Angeles has a pro football team again after a 21-year hiatus with the return of the Rams from St. Louis. But to a certain faction of sports fans in the region, LA remains a college town.
That status is enhanced this weekend for the annual clash between Pac-12 crosstown rivals UCLA and USC. They've met 85 times since 1929, with USC holding a 47-31-7 edge, but before the Trojans won last season the Bruins had claimed three in a row.
The Victory Bell is on the line for the winner, but that's not the only thing at stake. USC (7-3, 6-2) has used a six-game win streak to climb back into the Pac-12 South Division race while UCLA (4-6, 2-5) must win out to become bowl-eligible for a sixth consecutive season.
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, Nov. 19
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Place: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
TV: ESPN
Spread: USC -10.5 (per OddsShark)
USC Keys to Victory
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Keep on keeping on
Why tinker with something that's working so well?
USC has won six in a row, its best streak since ending the 2011 season with four straight wins and opening 2-0 in 2012. The Trojans have completely turned around from a 1-3 start in which they lost to Alabama, Stanford and Utah and are playing as well as anyone in the Pac-12.
The bounceback has been keyed by a greater emphasis on the run, with at least 33 carries in seven straight games that has produced 12 rushing touchdowns and 237.3 yards per game. That's also allowed redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Darnold to thrive by not putting all the pressure on him to lead the offense.
Get pressure
The Trojans are tied for 81st nationally in sacks per game, with 19 in nine contests, and their 5.6 tackles for loss per game puts them in a tie for 75th. Not particularly impressive, but it's getting the job done in other ways.
Last week, USC's pressure forced Washington quarterback Jake Browning into his worst game of the season, a key piece of the 26-13 win in Seattle. And that's how it's been during the win streak, with 14 sacks recorded in that time helping to stifle opposing offenses.
According to USC, its last six opponents have recorded their lowest point total of the season (to that point) when facing the Trojans.
UCLA Keys to Victory
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Establish the run
At 87.2 yards per game, UCLA is the second-worst rushing team in the country. The Bruins average a miserable 2.89 yards per carry and is still only 3.64 when sack yardage is removed, yet they still keep trying to run.
And when there's at least minor success moving the ball on the ground, UCLA tends to play better as a whole. Three of its four wins have come in games when rushing for at least 125 yards, including Saturday's 38-24 home win over Oregon State that saw the Bruins run for 163 yards and three touchdowns.
The run game has been most effective in the red zone, where 11 of UCLA's 13 rushing TDs have occurred. That's accounted for 55 percent of its red-zone TDs this season.
Hold onto the ball
UCLA's 23 turnovers are tied for 120th in FBS with eight lost fumbles and 15 interceptions. That's resulted in 112 points for its opponents or 43.4 percent of opponent scoring.
The Bruins have played relatively well on defense from a statistical standpoint, allowing only 25.8 points and 356.1 yards per game, but those short fields that come with giveaways have been deadly.
Though they beat Oregon State last weekend, 21 of the 24 points the Bruins allowed were the result of turnovers. The Beavers had scoring drives of four and 16 yards and also scored on a 40-yard fumble return TD.
UCLA has turned it over at least three times in four of its past five games.
USC Players to Watch
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Sam Darnold
USC head coach Clay Helton's decision to switch quarterbacks after three games was among the most significant moves he's made in his short head-coaching career. It helped that Sam Darnold has taken the starting job and quickly made it his own with a calm approach not normally seen from redshirt freshmen.
Darnold has averaged 290.7 yards per game in his seven starts with 20 touchdown passes while completing 68.6 percent of his throws. USC has won his last six games under center as Darnold has contributed at least two passing TDs in each of those victories.
Adoree' Jackson
Every week provides Adoree' Jackson with a different way to contribute to USC and he keeps finding new opportunities to stand out. The three-way star has been all over the field throughout his three seasons with the Trojans and has made his impact on offense, defense and special teams with several games where he stands out in at least two (if not all three) areas.
In USC's win at Washington last week, the 5'11”, 185-pound junior intercepted two passes and also recovered a blocked field goal try in addition to having an eight-yard carry on offense and returning three kickoffs for 59 yards.
Jackson is a player that has to be accounted for wherever he is on the field. Teams try to punt away from him, often leading to good field position for USC. When he lines up on offense if he goes in motion it causes the opposing defense to scramble to make sure he's covered, even though he's mostly been used as a decoy.
UCLA Players to Watch
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Mike Fafaul
A senior who made three minor appearances in his first three seasons, Mike Fafaul suddenly became the most important player in UCLA's offense after starting quarterback Josh Rosen got hurt in early October in a loss at Arizona State. Rosen has since underwent season-ending shoulder surgery, leaving Fafaul to navigate the Bruins offense for the last four games.
His numbers aren't great—1,245 passing yards, nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions while completing 54.5 percent of his throws—but he's shown flashes of strong play. He threw for 464 yards and five TDs against Utah, though he was also picked off four times, and though he doesn't run much he's managed to only be sacked eight times.
Takkarist McKinley
A 6'2”, 265-pound senior defensive end, Takkarist McKinley has quietly had a monster season that has seen him rack up 10 sacks and 18 tackles for loss. He is tied for the FBS lead in TFLs and has had seven sacks in his last four games.
The pressure McKinley puts on the pocket has enabled UCLA to defend the pass relatively well. The Bruins have intercepted 13 passes and allowed only eight touchdowns, tied for seventh-fewest in the country.
UCLA is on pace to have its best season against the pass since 2003, when it allowed only 15 TDs in 13 games. That's helped McKinley's draft stock rise, now sitting 27th on Bleacher Report NFL Draft expert Matt Miller's midseason big board.
What They're Saying
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After losing 52-6 to Alabama in Arlington, Texas, to open the season, USC was basically written off as being any sort of contender. This was furthered with an 0-2 start in Pac-12 play.
But now that the Trojans have won six consecutive games, knocking off 8-2 Colorado and previously unbeaten Washington along the way, many national experts are starting to take another look at this team. And the consensus verdict is that they're pretty good.
SB Nation's Bill Connelly wrote that USC's surge is the kind that helps fuel the annual discussion of expanding the current College Football Playoff beyond four teams, thus enabling those who struggled early but get hot at the right time to have a shot to keep that momentum going:
"Tell me you wouldn't be tempted to pick a hypothetical No. 6 seed USC to reach the CFP finals in 2016. ... USC can still win the Pac-12 (if current Pac-12 South leader Colorado loses), but it is impossible for a three-loss team to reach the CFP’s top four. An eight-teamer, however …
"
The oddsmakers have installed the Trojans as a double-digit favorite despite being the road team, and they're not the only ones who think USC will win at UCLA.
Since the UCLA-USC game is huge in the Los Angeles market (and can often sway a local recruit who's considering both schools to lean a certain way), Eric Sondheimer of the Los Angeles Times polled area high school coaches to get their take on who would win.
Of the 17 coaches he queried, 14 went with USC. That includes Antonio Pierce of Long Beach Poly, who predicted a 42-31 win for the visiting Trojans: "USC is playing better football and they know who their quarterback is going to be for the next three years," he said.
Prediction
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Rivalry games can bring out the best in even the worst teams, making it so the records don't really matter when pride and bragging rights are involved. But that's not always the case when at least one team is used to not having anything else to play for.
While UCLA can still become bowl-eligible if it wins out, that's a hard goal to strive for when needing more than one victory. It wasn't the motivation for the Bruins last week against Oregon State and won't be against USC.
The Trojans' goals are much clearer: Another win puts them at 7-2 in the conference and creates many scenarios where they can repeat as South Division champs depending on how Colorado and Utah do this weekend (and who wins between them on Nov. 26). Additionally, being able to beat the Bruins and keep that win streak going also provides fuel.
Prediction: USC 31, UCLA 19
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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