Power Ranking Top Playoff Contenders by Their Offenses
Yeah, yeah, defense wins championships. But without the ability to produce on offense, it's going to be darn hard to get a chance to play for such a championship.
With the exception maybe of defending national champion Alabama, which has scored a ridiculous 12 non-offensive touchdowns this season, college football's top contenders have a certain amount of reliance on their offense to find the end zone. How often they do this and with what kind of efficiency may determine their chances to not just qualify for the playoffs but have the opportunity to win a title.
Using a formula that factors in yards and points per game, yards per play, the frequency of explosive plays, efficiency on third down and in the red zone, and the ability to prevent turnovers and negative plays, we've ranked the top 10 teams in the Associated Press poll by their offensive aptitude.
10. Wisconsin
1 of 10
When head coach Paul Chryst took over Wisconsin last season he was forced to throw the ball more than the Badgers ever had before, the result of an inexperienced offensive line and injuries to the running back corps. The 39.4 carries and 150.3 rushing yards per game were among the lowest in school history.
A return to a ground-and-pound game has been essential to Wisconsin's strong 2016 season, up to 46.8 carries and 198.7 yards per game. However, the Badgers are only throwing for 181.2 yards per game, which ranks 103rd in FBS and is by far the worst of any playoff contender.
Admittedly, Wisconsin doesn't need to rack up yards and put up tons of points to win. Not when its defense allows a mere 12.7 points per game overall and just 12.3 points in Big Ten play.
9. Penn State
2 of 10
Barring a major setback, quarterback Trace McSorley will become Penn State's first 3,000-yard passer since 2012. From 2013-15 a combined 169 FBS schools threw for at least 3,000 yards and 21 have already done so this season.
This isn't meant to belittle the Nittany Lions offense this season but show how it's not like most attacks in the modern college football landscape. McSorley has been good for 2,390 yards and 16 touchdowns with only five interceptions, but he's attempted 271 passes, 60th-most in FBS.
Penn State gets it done more on the ground than through the air and understandably so. Most teams would lean heavily on sophomore Saquon Barkley if they had him at their disposal.
The Lions don't overwork him, though. Thirteen other running backs (as well as Navy option QB Will Worth) have more carries than Barkley's 200, but only six of those are averaging better than his 5.57 rate and only four have scored more often than his 13 touchdowns.
8. West Virginia
3 of 10
The Big 12 may not end up getting a team in the playoffs this season, but it won't be due to the league's lack of exciting offenses. Five of the top 30 teams in the country in terms of scoring offense are from that conference, which makes West Virginia's No. 19 scoring defense rank quite impressive.
It's also how the Mountaineers have been able to put together an 8-1 record without a particularly dominant offensive attack. Their 32.2 points per game rank seventh in the league and second-worst among playoff contenders.
West Virginia is by no means bad on offense, it just hasn't been that flashy. Senior quarterback Skyler Howard is having the best year of his career, averaging 284.7 yards per game with 17 touchdowns on 64.5 percent passing, but he's also thrown nine interceptions which accounts for most of the Mountaineers' 16 turnovers.
Howard has also scored six rushing TDs and makes for a nice complementary piece to a run game that has three other ball-carriers who have run for between 459 and 599 yards.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Clemson
4 of 10
It's quite difficult to maintain a certain level of offensive performance over the course of one season, which makes the fact Clemson has done it for nearly two full years quite impressive. The Tigers average 38.9 points per game and 6.31 yards per carry after being at 38.5 and 6.39, respectively, during their run to the national championship in 2015-16.
But Clemson is making more mistakes than a year ago, and in 2015 they were rather miscue-prone. The Tigers have turned it over 21 times, four more than at this point last November, and that's contributed to a 62.75 percent red-zone touchdown success rate that ranks 62nd out of 128 FBS schools.
Deshaun Watson is averaging 345.5 yards per game of total offense, only slightly behind the 347.3 yards he averaged a season ago, but the rushing aspect of that production is way down. In 2015 Watson became the first player in FBS history to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000, but this fall he's run for only 378 yards.
Clemson's lack of a run game—156.4 yards per game, 86th in the country—is worst among playoff contenders, and that's forced Watson to throw more. He's averaging six more attempts per game than in 2015, and his 13 interceptions already match the number he threw in 15 games a year ago.
6. Alabama
5 of 10
With a defense as dominant as the one it has, not to mention the ability to score regularly on special teams, Alabama doesn't need big plays on offense in order to remain at the top of the playoff standings. But it sure helps.
The Crimson Tide average 6.8 plays of 20 or more yards each game, which is fourth-best among playoff contenders and sixth-best overall. That's contributed to their 6.75 yards-per-play average, which ranks 11th in FBS and is nearly a yard better than during Alabama's national title run last season.
Much of that improvement is due to the extraordinary play of true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, a one-of-its kind player in comparison to others coached by Nick Saban. According to Phil Savage, executive director of the Reese's Senior Bowl, Hurts is the first QB Saban has ever had who has thrown and rushed for 100-plus yards in a game...and he's done it four times.
That includes three of the last four games, and it's why Hurts' 126 carries are tops on the team. Injuries have hobbled most of Alabama's running backs, but with Hurts doing so well, this hasn't hurt the offense or made not having a Heisman Trophy-winning rusher like Derrick Henry an issue.
5. Michigan
6 of 10
When Michigan fell 14-13 at Iowa on Saturday it didn't just knock the Wolverines from the ranks of the unbeatens but also showed the first real cracks in their offensive armor. In eight of the previous nine games, they'd scored at least 32 points and had averaged no worse than 4.59 yards per play but were held to 3.3 yards per snap in Iowa City.
Michigan got to the red zone twice in that game, compared to 54 times in the first nine contests, and managed a touchdown and a field goal. It's 71.4 percent red-zone TD rate is second-best among playoff contenders, and 40 of the Wolverines' 54 offensive TDs have come in those situations.
The Wolverines are efficient on offense but not particularly explosive, its leading rusher (De'Veon Smith) averaging only 4.89 yards per carry. Quarterback Wilton Speight has been effective throwing the ball, but a shoulder injury could keep him out for their next game, which would force a change in scheme.
That may mean even more use of Michigan's best defensive player, Jabrill Peppers, on offense. The redshirt sophomore has had 19 carries in the last five games as Michigan goes more and more to a Wildcat alignment in which Peppers takes the snap.
4. Washington
7 of 10
Washington suffered the biggest fall of the three unbeaten teams that lost on Saturday, dropping to seventh in the Associated Press poll. The Huskies' 26-13 loss to USC was the first time all year their offense wasn't dominant—in fact, it was downright awful compared to in previous games.
Part of the issue was not making the most of its red-zone opportunities, going 1-for-2 with just a field goal. It was the first time in 2016 Washington didn't score a red-zone touchdown, yet it's still finding the end zone 79.1 percent of the time it gets inside opponents' 20-yard line, which is tied for second in FBS.
The Huskies also turned it over twice for the first time all season, giving them just nine giveaways. Those were interceptions thrown by sophomore Jake Browning, who came in having thrown 34 touchdown passes to just three picks, yet he's still third in the country in passer rating (189.13).
Washington is still third-best among playoff contenders in points per game (44.8) and yards per play (7.35) because of Browning's play as well as the strong running of Lavon Coleman and Myles Gaskin and the big-play ability of receivers Dante Pettis and John Ross.
3. Oklahoma
8 of 10
When the first playoff rankings came out two weeks ago, the Big 12 was nowhere to be found. Oklahoma, at 14th, was the highest-rated team from that conference and was considered a major long shot due to its two early losses and the presence of nine teams above it with one or zero losses.
Now the Sooners are very much alive in the playoff race, and while they can thank the struggles of others for some of that rise, it's also due to their continued exceptional offensive production.
Oklahoma's 44.2 points per game and 7.57 yards per play are better than the numbers it had in 2015 en route to the semifinals. That's a testament to the Sooners' experience on offense via quarterback Baker Mayfield, running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine and receiver Dede Westbrook. Mayfield is the straw that stirs the drink, his 33 touchdown passes only three fewer than all of last season, and he leads the country with a 195.17 quarterback rating that would break Russell Wilson's 191.8 FBS record from 2011.
2. Louisville
9 of 10
Louisville's offense is as close to a one-man show as it gets in college football, but when that individual is Lamar Jackson, that's more than enough to win on a regular basis. The Cardinals are 9-1 and in the thick of the playoff hunt because of what Jackson has accomplished in his sophomore year, the kind of numbers that scream Heisman Trophy winner.
The quarterback has thrown for 2,898 yards and 27 touchdowns while rushing for 1,334 yards and 19 TDs. The 46 scores are more than 100 other FBS teams have accomplished this season, and his 423.2 yards per game of total offense trails only Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes (452.3) for the national lead.
It's almost entirely because of Jackson that Louisville ranks so high on this list and why it is tops among playoff contenders in points per game (49.6), yards per game (583.2) and yards per play (7.83). Running back Brandon Radcliff's 7.18 yards per carry also provide a boost, but he's run only 107 times in 10 games compared to 184 carries for Jackson.
Jackson is also why the Cardinals aren't first overall, though, since he's responsible for nine of their 24 turnovers and has been sacked 24 times.
1. Ohio State
10 of 10
It might feel like Ohio State's offense only started kicking it into overdrive after the Buckeyes lost at Penn State, thus putting them in a win-or-else situation in order to make the playoffs. In reality, OSU has been clicking all season long with just a minor offensive hiccup in mid-October.
Among playoff contenders, OSU is the top team in third-down efficiency (52.63 percent, which ranks fifth nationally) and is also best at avoiding negative plays with only 3.7 tackles per loss allowed per game. The Buckeyes' seven turnovers are tied for third-fewest in FBS, another indication it makes the most out of offensive possessions.
The key to all this? A veteran presence at quarterback in J.T. Barrett, who is putting up numbers similar to what he did as a redshirt freshman in 2014 (when OSU won the national title). He's generating 283.5 yards per game of total offense with 31 total touchdowns, his 64.7 percent completion rate a career high, and he's thrown only four interceptions in 292 attempts compared to four picks in 147 throws last season.
There's no workhorse like Ezekiel Elliott to run the ball, but instead OSU has a variety of rushing options in Barrett, junior Curtis Samuel and redshirt freshman Mike Weber. That trio has combined for 2,189 yards and 22 TDs.
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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