NCAA Football Rankings 2016: Hits and Misses from Week 12 Polls
After a Saturday like that, it's understandable that the latest college football polls are a little wonky.
Three of the country's five remaining unbeaten teams fell on a day that will go down as one of the most chaotic in history and by far the messiest since the playoff era began. Who knows what it's going to do to the next playoff standings when they're released on Tuesday, but we got an indication by how the latest Associated Press and Amway coaches polls looked.
Each of the 61 AP voters and 63 coaches who cast ballots has their own idea of how the rankings should pan out, and this produces a mix of good and bad results. Here's a look at what they got right and what could use a little tweaking.
Hit: Ohio State Capitalizes on Others' Failures
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Ohio State was the biggest winner from a weekend full of upheaval, using a second consecutive 62-3 win to jump from fifth to second in both polls. The Buckeyes' recent dominance has been recognized by voters, putting them closer to No. 1 Alabama than to the teams they've just moved ahead of in the Associated Press poll.
The Buckeyes earned 1,455 votes in the AP poll, 70 fewer than the Crimson Tide but 98 more than No. 3 Louisville. The margins in the Amway coaches poll were 80 votes between first and second and 77 between second and third (Louisville), but that is still a noticeable gap.
OSU has been on a steady climb since that loss at Penn State three weeks ago, keeping the Buckeyes in position to rise in the rankings if teams above them lost. The setbacks by Clemson, Michigan and Washington served as a massive opening for the Buckeyes to make the playoffs for a third straight season.
Miss: Louisville Is Ranked Ahead of Clemson, Which Beat Louisville
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It was a foregone conclusion that the three unbeaten teams who lost—Clemson, Michigan and Washington—would fall a bit in the rankings and that would allow other teams to climb ahead of them. Most voters take into account head-to-head results between teams with like records when coming up with their order, at least in theory.
Looks like both the Associated Press and Amway voters either forgot that Louisville's loss this season was to Clemson, or they felt the Tigers' home loss to Pittsburgh warranted some sort of penalty and it didn't matter who else benefited. How else can you explain why the Cardinals, whose 44-12 win over Wake Forest involved them scoring 34 fourth-quarter points including three score-padding touchdowns in the final 4:05, are ahead of Clemson in each poll?
It's not that Louisville doesn't deserve to be No. 3 with a 9-1 record or that Clemson didn't deserve to drop to fifth from second in the Amway poll and third in the AP. But considering that Clemson has the head-to-head win and is still in line to win the ACC's Atlantic Division—while Louisville would finish second—it's foolish the Cardinals are ahead of the Tigers.
Neither Michigan (now fourth in both polls) or Washington (seventh in each) fell behind a team they've beaten, and it wasn't even close.
Hit: USC Returns to Rankings with Authority
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USC sat 20th in the latest playoff rankings but wasn't in either the Associated Press or Amway polls entering this past weekend. But after the Trojans impressively won 26-13 at then-unbeaten Washington, they've made their first appearance since the opening week.
The Trojans (7-3) are 15th in the AP poll, their highest ranking since September 2015, and sit 19th in the Amway rankings. That makes them the highest-ranked three-loss team in the AP—while LSU, Florida State and Auburn are ahead of USC in the Amway poll—and are ahead of two-loss Washington State, which is 20th in each poll.
Throwing USC into the polls and putting them so high is more a mark of their recent performance, six consecutive wins, than the overall record. That's how teams with two or more losses should be evaluated, but that's not always the case.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Miss: Has Western Michigan Hit a Ceiling?
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Western Michigan has hit the big time, becoming just the second Mid-American Conference team (and first since 2003) to host ESPN's College GameDay pregame show for next Saturday's game against Buffalo. The 10-0 Broncos were the highest-ranked non-power conference team in the last playoff standings, putting them in position to earn a major bowl bid if they keep winning.
But the Broncos appear to have reached their peak in terms of how high they can climb in the polls. They stayed at 14th in the Associated Press rankings and their No. 21 spot in the Amway poll is the one they also occupied last week, but at least they didn't drop like they did last time in going from 18th to 21st despite another solid win.
Meanwhile, teams that were below the Broncos one week keep moving ahead of them. AP voters leapfrogged Colorado and Oklahoma State while, in the Amway rankings, Washington State moved ahead of them.
Hit: Hello Troy!
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Troy joined the FBS ranks in 2001 and has had some good seasons, winning nine games in 2009 and appearing in five bowl games. But the Trojans had never been ranked, and until this season hadn't ever received votes in the polls.
No longer. Following a 28-24 home win over Appalachian State, which keeps the Trojans (8-1) tied for first in the Sun Belt, they're ranked in the Associated Press poll for the first time in history at No. 25.
Troy is one spot behind another non-power school, San Diego State, which moved into both polls this week after winning a 16th consecutive Mountain West Conference game. The Aztecs (9-1) are 24th in the AP poll and 25th in the Amway rankings, which didn't include Troy because its 28 votes were only good for 30th-best.
Miss: Few Voters Impressed by Iowa and Pittsburgh's Wins
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Last-second field goals gave Iowa and Pittsburgh their biggest wins of the season and among the most significant in school history. The Hawkeyes' 14-13 victory over Michigan was their first against a top-5 team in six years, while Pitt's 43-42 win at Clemson marked the Panthers' first triumph against a top-5 squad since 2007.
And those teams' reward for pulling off those upsets? In polling terms, almost zilch.
While Clemson and Michigan dipped in the polls because of losing, Iowa and Pitt got very little credit from the voters for being the ones to win those games. Pitt had a combined 15 votes in the two polls while Iowa got five total votes (with only one coach who participates in the Amway balloting giving them a No. 25 ranking).
Sure, neither of these 6-4 teams deserve to be ranked, but it's surprising to see more voters didn't give them a token spot at the bottom of their lists. Instead, far more included teams like Arkansas, Baylor, North Carolina and Virginia Tech, all of whom lost this past weekend.
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
