College Football Teams on Upset Alert in November
What lies ahead for college football's top teams during November? Plenty of opportunity to shine, but also quite a lot of potential peril.
The final month of the regular season tends to be when things come more into focus, as the best of the best rise to the top, while others fall by the wayside. There's no shortage of high-profile matchups pitting playoff contenders, as well as between teams battling for division and conference titles, but that's only the tip of the trouble. Sometimes the most dangerous games are the ones that don't appear so tough on the surface.
The unexpected upset is what can derail a playoff or league title run, losing to a team you shouldn't have and thus getting knocked off that purposeful climb. And very few of college football's best teams are safe from this danger.
To qualify as an upset in this scenario, a ranked team must lose to an unranked opponent, most commonly on the road. Using these criteria, we've come up with 10 teams that should be on major upset alert in November. It doesn't mean we think they'll lose any of these games, but rather they must make sure not to overlook such foes or risk getting upended.
No. 2 Michigan
1 of 10
Nov. 12 at Iowa
It's fair to say Michigan's schedule to this point has been favorable, with Saturday's game against Maryland its seventh at home in nine contests. The Wolverines have played three ranked teams, all at home, with only Wisconsin in the polls when they played on Oct. 1 while getting Colorado and Penn State before they hit their stride.
Michigan ends the regular season with a trip to No. 6 Ohio State and thus won't have its Big Ten East Division or playoff fate settled until the end of the month. But it can be knocked off those paths if it slips up in the only other road game left on the schedule.
Iowa is 5-3 with all three losses at home, including to FCS power North Dakota State, but those three losses are by a combined 17 points. Those setbacks were mostly the result of sluggish offense, as the Hawkeyes have been careful with the ball and have only turned it over five times.
Michigan's two road opponents in 2016, Rutgers and Michigan State, are a combined 4-12 on the season. Iowa will serve as a significant upgrade in competition, one that should prepare the Wolverines for their future trip to Ohio State but could also serve as a stumbling block along the way.
No. 4 Washington
2 of 10
Nov. 5 at California, Nov. 12 vs. USC
Washington more or less cruised through its first seven games this season, winning by an average of 33.7 points with an overtime victory at Arizona the only outlier. The Huskies then survived a tough test at Utah on Saturday, winning by seven, and the remaining slate will continue to be challenging starting with consecutive games against California schools.
It starts with Saturday's trip to Berkeley, California, for a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff that screams #Pac12AfterDark. The last few seasons have seen Pac-12 playoff hopefuls get bumped off in these late-night November road games, with Utah falling out of the race last year after losing at Arizona and Arizona State's playoff run coming to an end with a November night loss at Oregon State.
Washington ranks 10th nationally against the pass but hasn't faced an attack like that of Cal, which is fourth in FBS at 365.6 yards per game. Davis Webb has 29 touchdown passes and has only been sacked 12 times in more than 400 dropbacks, getting the ball out quickly and putting pressure on secondaries.
Assuming the Huskies get past Cal, they still have to deal with a rising USC team a week later. Though the game will be in Seattle, the Trojans can't be overlooked in their current state, which has seen them average 38.8 points and 543.5 yards per game during a four-game win streak.
No. 5 Louisville
3 of 10
Nov. 17 at Houston
Based on how each team performed in September, Louisville's weeknight trip to Houston has been pegged as a major playoff-impacting matchup for some time. It still is, but now just for the Cardinals since Houston has lost twice and is no longer in the running for the semifinals.
Louisville is very much alive for a bid, but only if it wins out and preferably does so in impressive fashion. Two of its last three games haven't fit that bill, beating Duke at home by 10 and then needing a touchdown in the final minute to win at Virginia on Saturday.
Houston serves as the Cardinals' last major opportunity to boost their resume, though not by as much as previously hoped. The Cougars have lost two of their last four and won the other two games (both at home) by a touchdown apiece, falling out of the rankings after rising to as high as sixth in early October.
But just because Houston is out of the playoff mix doesn't make it any less dangerous. If anything, the Cougars could be more troublesome now that they've returned to being less heralded and unassuming, a formula they parlayed into beating Oklahoma to start this season and knocking off three power-conference teams (including Louisville, on the road) in 2015.
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No. 6 Ohio State
4 of 10
Nov. 12 at Maryland, Nov. 19 at Michigan State
Ohio State understands the situation it's in, needing to win out in order to get into the playoff. The loss at Penn State two weeks ago created this scenario, but it's one the Buckeyes know well from their 2014 national title run.
Facing a pair of Top 10 teams this month in No. 9 Nebraska (Saturday) and No. 2 Michigan (Nov. 26) provides OSU with the opportunities to rise up the rankings despite that loss, since beating both teams would leave the Big Ten without an unbeaten team and would also put the Buckeyes into the conference championship game. That is, assuming they don't slip up against one of two unranked foes more than willing to play spoiler.
Depending on how OSU's game against Nebraska goes, Maryland could be catching it coming down from a high. The Terrapins (5-3) would likely be playing for bowl eligibility under first-year coach D.J. Durkin unless they manage to upset Michigan on the road this weekend, and the combination of that goal and being able to derail the Buckeyes' playoff drive could make for a potent recipe.
OSU follows that game up with a trip to East Lansing to face a Michigan State team with little to play for. At 2-6, the Spartans have lost six straight (possibly seven if they fall at Illinois) and are headed for their worst season in at least a decade, but they tend to always play the Buckeyes tough.
MSU has won three of the last five meetings, including the 2013 Big Ten title game, and the losses in that span have been by a combined 13 points.
No. 8 Wisconsin
5 of 10
Nov. 5 at Northwestern
Wisconsin could use a break from intense, nip-and-tuck games. That's all it's had through the first five weeks of Big Ten play, playing four teams that were ranked in the Top 10 at the time with three games on the road but managing to go 3-2 against that competition. The Badgers' overtime win against Nebraska last week keeps them in contention for the West Division title, and the remaining schedule is favorable compared to what they've dealt with so far.
Favorable, but not a breeze. Not based on the Badgers' recent history against Northwestern. They've lost two straight to the Wildcats, falling 13-7 at home last season, and in 2014 their only conference loss was in Evanston, Illinois.
Northwestern (4-4) held its own last week at Ohio State, losing 24-20 to snap a three-game win streak. The Wildcats have improved dramatically since starting 1-3 with losses to Western Michigan and FCS school Illinois State, showing the ability to win high-scoring shootouts and defensive struggles.
Wisconsin hasn't scored more than 23 points in any of its last four games, so the latter is more likely against Northwestern.
No. 10 Florida
6 of 10
Nov. 5 at Arkansas
If Florida is going to repeat as SEC East Division champions, it's going to earn that return trip to Atlanta on the road. The Gators' final three league games include two trips to the West Division, most notably the Nov. 19 visit to LSU that originally was to be played in Gainesville, Florida, on Oct. 8.
Hurricane Matthew forced the schools to initially cancel that game, then after much negotiation—as well as payouts to some nonconference opponents—the date and location were shifted to ensure that every SEC team would still play eight league contests. Tennessee's downward spiral has made this schedule adjustment somewhat of a moot point, since Florida would need to lose twice (while Kentucky or Tennessee won out) for it to not win the division.
That means losing somewhere other than at LSU, and of the two other opportunities, this weekend's game at Arkansas is most dangerous.
For one, the Razorbacks are coming off a bye and will be rested while the Gators just played an emotional rivalry game against Georgia in Jacksonville, Florida. Second, the Hogs are anxious to show they can beat a ranked team after losing to Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M by a combined 93 points.
And Florida hasn't exactly played like gangbusters in true road games. The Gators blew a 21-3 lead at Tennessee and a week later sleepwalked to a 13-6 win at Vanderbilt in their only games outside of Florida.
No. 11 Auburn
7 of 10
Nov. 12 at Georgia
Winners of five straight, Auburn might be playing its best ball since 2013 when it won the SEC and reached the BCS championship game. After starting 1-2 and failing to score more than 18 points in three of their first four games, such a turnaround didn't seem possible for the Tigers. Now their season-ending game at rival Alabama is shaping up to be an unofficial SEC West title game.
Unless a stumble occurs along the way. It shouldn't happen Saturday at home against Vanderbilt nor the Nov. 19 home finale against FCS Alabama A&M, but in between there's another rivalry bout that could be troublesome.
The annual game against Georgia, known as "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry," has been a bugaboo for the Tigers the past decade. They've lost eight of their last 10 to the Bulldogs, the only wins coming in the national title season of 2010 and via the miraculous "Prayer at Jordan-Hare" win in 2013 en route to the BCS final. Three of the other four since then have been blowout losses.
Sure, the current Georgia team is struggling. At 4-4 with losses in four of five, it's not looking like the most formidable of opponents, but rivalry games have a way of bringing out the best in teams.
No. 17 Western Michigan
8 of 10
Nov. 1 at Ball State, Nov. 8 at Kent State
As the lone unbeaten team from outside the power conferences, Western Michigan is in prime position to land that coveted New Year's Bowl bid given to the nation's best non-power team. All it takes, though, is one loss to shatter that dream.
The Broncos will have found out just where they stand in the initial playoff rankings less than an hour before playing the first of two straight Tuesday night road games. It's part of the Mid-American Conference's annual takeover of November weeknight television, and this time #MACtion has extra spotlights because of Western Michigan's perfect record.
Neither Ball State (4-4) or Kent State (3-6) are particularly challenging opponents, but that's far from the point. Western Michigan has the hopes of its entire league riding on its shoulders, not to mention the growing interest in coach P.J. Fleck as a candidate for bigger jobs at power-conference schools and the potential that has to be a distraction.
When WMU won at Northwestern and Illinois back in September, it was still somewhat of a novelty, a team with nothing to lose. Now the Broncos have something significant on the line, and that pressure could get the best of them this month.
No. 20 Penn State
9 of 10
Nov. 12 at Indiana
Penn State's four-game win streak, highlighted by its thrilling win over then-unbeaten Ohio State two weeks ago, has returned the Nittany Lions to the national rankings and put them in contention to win the Big Ten's East Division title. They don't control their destiny, needing both OSU and Michigan to lose again, but the fact there's even a shot shows the progress made over the course of the season.
It also means Penn State must take care of its own games, which means winning two more on the road. Saturday's 62-24 victory at Purdue snapped a seven-game road skid, though it did come against an opponent with an interim coach.
Indiana will be a different kind of road foe, one that at 4-4 is very alive for a bowl bid and which has looked good at home in conference play. The Hoosiers beat Michigan State in overtime (when MSU was still ranked) and knocked off Maryland last week, while in mid-October they fell to then-unbeaten Nebraska by just five points.
No. 22 Oklahoma State
10 of 10
Nov. 5 at Kansas State, Nov. 19 at TCU
Oklahoma State has won four straight and is right in the thick of the Big 12 race. Its victory over then-unbeaten West Virginia and Baylor's loss at Texas puts the Cowboys a game back of rival Oklahoma for first place, making it possible the Dec. 3 Bedlam game will serve as the league's unofficial championship.
This becomes less likely if the Cowboys slip up on their way to that finale in Norman, Oklahoma, and it's on the road where that's most likely to happen. OK State is 1-1 outside of Stillwater, Oklahoma, this season with the win at lowly Kansas and the loss at Baylor.
Both Kansas State and TCU will be difficult games made harder by being played on the road. OK State hasn't won in Manhattan since 2010, and its lone trip to TCU since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12 was a 42-9 loss in 2014.
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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