Clemson vs. Florida State: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Deshaun Watson and the No. 3 Clemson Tigers will continue their championship pursuit with a road showdown against the 12th-ranked Florida State Seminoles.
With a win, Clemson (7-0, 4-0 ACC) can move one critical step closer to sealing the ACC Atlantic Division. Dabo Swinney's team would then hold the tiebreaker over both FSU and Louisville.
Florida State (5-2, 2-2), barring complete chaos, is eliminated from College Football Playoff discussion. However, the Seminoles could play spoiler at home, where the program has earned four straight wins against Clemson.
ESPN will televise the showdown at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday. Per Odds Shark, Clemson opened as a three-point favorite.
Clemson Keys to Victory
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Run the Ball Effectively
Clemson tends to perform as the running game does.
In close victories against Auburn, Troy and North Carolina State, the Tigers didn't reach four yards per carry. They tallied 4.1 in an unspectacular triumph over Georgia Tech. But during a rout of Boston College and critical win against No. 5 Louisville, the running game averaged at least 6.5 yards.
Whether it's simple zone runs, zone-reads or designed runs for Watson, Clemson needs to have consistent success on the ground.
Don't Get Beaten by Misdirection
The blocked extra point demanded the headlines after Florida State's 20-19 thriller in Miami, but two misdirection plays—which were already on tape—still fooled the 'Canes and won the game.
Deondre Francois is a running threat on play-action bootlegs, so it's important for the Tigers to keep backside contain. Plus, when he rolls one way, a pass-catcher might sprint down the other sideline. Twice, Dalvin Cook has burned defenses on the play.
Clemson must be careful not to let the 'Noles rip off a huge gain—and possibly a touchdown—by being overaggressive.
Florida State Keys to Victory
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Lean on the Star
Over the last four games, Cook has accumulated 910 total yards (672 rushing, 238 receiving) and six touchdowns. Florida State should have a simple game plan: get him the ball.
"There's some satisfaction, but always in the back of your head you know you are capable of doing more," Cook said before playing Wake Forest, per Joe Reedy of the Associated Press. "Overall there is still a lot of stuff I have to clean up, but I have been having some solid performances."
But if Clemson limits Cook's production, the 'Noles could be in trouble.
Force Turnovers, Score Points
Watson is heralded as a first-round NFL draft prospect, but he's liable to make some head-shaking throws. While the FSU defense is inconsistent, it's superb at stealing possessions.
After seven games, the Seminoles rank 16th nationally with 15 takeaways. Meanwhile, Clemson has committed 16 turnovers, which are fewer than just eight teams in the country.
Florida State will likely snatch an interception or two, but Francois and Co. need to make Watson pay for the mistake by finding the end zone.
Clemson Players to Watch
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Wayne Gallman, Running Back
Wayne Gallman left Clemson's last game due to a concussion, but he's listed as probable, per Aaron Brenner of the Post & Courier.
Although the Tigers have other options, Gallman will shoulder the load if he's cleared to play. His production is critical to Clemson limiting the pressure on Watson, who, again, has a history of forcing throws when it seems like the offense needs a spark.
Gallman posted consecutive 100-yard outputs before he left the game against the Wolfpack. The Tigers must get him involved early and often.
Dexter Lawrence, Defensive Tackle
Meet Dexter Lawrence, the 6'5", 340-pound freshman defensive tackle—though Cook would probably prefer to avoid an introduction.
Lawrence has already earned a significant role on a unit that features Christian Wilkins and Carlos Watkins. The newcomer has posted 33 tackles, 4.5 stops for loss, two sacks and one fumble recovery.
And he—along with Watkins and Scott Pagano—will be tasked with keeping Cook from finding running lanes between the tackles.
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Florida State Players to Watch
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Travis Rudolph, Wide Receiver
After collecting 13 receptions, 179 yards and three touchdowns during the first two games, Travis Rudolph managed just six catches for 80 yards throughout the next four contests.
Two weeks ago, he shook the slump.
Rudolph obliterated Wake Forest, reeling in 13 passes for 238 yards. That's a tremendous day. Yet that can be true while we acknowledge zero catches were on third down, on which the team finished 4-of-12.
Florida State needs its No. 1 target to provide some timely catches in addition to several other receptions Saturday night.
DeMarcus Walker, Defensive End
Mitch Hyatt and Jake Fruhmorgen better be ready for a major challenge. It doesn't get much tougher than DeMarcus Walker.
Of his 31 total tackles, the senior defensive end has registered nine for loss—8.5 of which are sacks. Efficient, wouldn't you say?
Walker has also forced three fumbles. If Hyatt and Fruhmorgen allow a pressure, the result might not just be a loss of yards.
What They're Saying
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Clemson
As long as you're winning in college football, it doesn't have to be pretty. Clemson is 7-0 with four one-possession wins. Swinney credited the players for being mentally strong in close games, according to David Hood of TigerNet:
"These guys, they know how to win. We're 15-2 in our last 17 games decided by seven points or less. That's special. Most people quit, they pout, but these guys never quit playing. They have an absolute belief that they will win. That's pretty dang special. 15-2 ain't getting lucky. That a mentality. That's toughness.
"
Florida State
The defense has been without star safety Derwin James for five games. Wayne E. McGahee III of the Tallahassee Democrat noted Jimbo Fisher isn't ruling James out but doesn't expect him back.
"I wish and I hope so, but if I had to say, it would be a little bit early," Fisher said. "I bet he's healed enough, but I don't know if they're going to let him. He's walking around pretty good, but I wouldn't expect so."
Prediction
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The similarities between 2014 Florida State and 2016 Clemson are striking. Like that 'Noles team—which secured an overtime win in this matchup—the Tigers just keep finding a way to win.
Minus the extra session, history will repeat itself.
Like the rest of Clemson's season, it won't be pretty. Watson will turn the ball over twice, but the defense will keep FSU out of the end zone. The Seminoles have struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks, and designed runs will be a problem once again.
Clemson will limit Cook's explosive plays and force Florida State into three field goals, which will provide the ultimate difference. One more touchdown for the Tigers leads to another tight win.
Prediction: Clemson 34, Florida State 29
All recruiting information via Scout. Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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