The Biggest Threat to Each Remaining Undefeated College Football Team
With eight weeks down and six remaining in the 2016 college football regular season, weโve officially entered the push for the College Football Playoff. Conference races are in full swing. Weโve figured out which September surprises are real and which are mirages. Games circled on the calendar as huge in August might not mean so much now, but others have taken their place.
Of 128 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, nine unbeatens remain. Two (Baylor and West Virginia) are currently scheduled to play each other, while two more (Michigan and Nebraska) would meet in the Big Ten title game if they continue on their current paths and win their respective divisions. That would leave us with seven unbeaten teams at seasonโs end, but history tells us that number will be winnowed significantly when the third College Football Playoff field is announced.
In each of the past two seasons, one unbeaten team has made the playoff field. Two years ago, it was Florida State. Last fall, it was Clemson. Seven unbeatens might seem realistic now, but more surprises and upsets like Penn Stateโs 24-21 stunner over then-No. 2 Ohio State are on tap. Hereโs a look at the toughest game remaining for each unbeaten team.
Alabama
1 of 9
Over the last decade of college football, thereโs been Alabama. Then thereโs been everyone else. Nick Saban has restored the glory days in Tuscaloosa, winning four national titles in nineย seasons. Seven games into 2016, the Crimson Tide are on pace for No. 5 of the Saban era. Alabama is clearly the nationโs No. 1 team, handling foe after foe with ease.
Following a comeback 48-43 win at Ole Miss, the Tide have thrived, winning five straight games by an average of 30.6 points. They throttled then-No. 9 Tennessee 49-10 and scored the gameโs final 20 points to handle No. 6 Texas A&M 33-14ย onย Saturday.
Alabamaโs defense is one of the nationโs nastiest, and freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts is doing an excellent job piloting Lane Kiffinโs up-tempo scheme, throwing for 1,549 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions and showing elusiveness with 521 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.
What stands between Alabama and an undefeated regular season? A pair of Tigers. Resurgent Auburn has climbed to No. 15 nationally with four consecutive wins and visits Bryant-Denny Stadium onย Nov. 26. But a trip to No. 19 LSU onย Nov. 5 looms as a bit tougher. The Tigers have gelled around interim coach Ed Orgeron and won three consecutive games after Les Milesโ firing.
Standout tailback Leonard Fournette finally appears healthy after ripping Ole Miss for 284 yards and three touchdowns on just 16 carries in a 38-21 victory. And heโll be motivated after the Tide held him to just 31 yards last fall. Winning in Baton Rouge is never easy. The Tide needed a late touchdown to escape with a 21-17 win in 2012 and overtime to seal a 20-13 win in 2014.
Orgeron and a solid defense will make life difficult for Alabama to emerge with another victory.
Baylor
2 of 9
Baylor had a summer to forget. Following an independent university investigation into the mishandling of allegations of sexual assault and violence against women, popular head coach Art Briles, university president Ken Starr and athletic director Ian McCaw all lost their jobs, and former Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe stepped in as interim head coach.
That turbulence hasnโt affected the Bears on the field, though. At 6-0, theyโre one of only two unbeatens remaining in the Big 12 along with No. 10 West Virginia. Their best win came over Oklahoma State, but the schedule is about to get tougher.
The Mountaineers, No. 16 Oklahoma, TCU, Texas Tech and Texas still remain on the schedule. Baylorโs rebuilt defense has been very solid thus far, yielding 17.2 points per game, good forย No. 11 nationally. But multiple up-tempo schemes will test them. A year ago, Oklahoma handed the Bears their first defeat.
They travel to Norman on Nov. 12. The Sooners have found an impressive gear with quarterback Baker Mayfield and average 354.6 passing yards and 43.9 points per game (No. 7 and No. 8 nationally, respectively).ย
Saturday, Mayfield torched Texas Tech for 545 yards and seven touchdowns in a 66-59 win, although it must be noted that Patrick Mahomes was even better, throwing for an amazing 734 yards (tying the NCAA single-game record) and five touchdowns.
If Baylor canโt slow down the Soonersโ air raid attack, theyโll see their unbeaten record go by the boards again this year.
Boise State
3 of 9
2015 was something of a down year by Boise Stateโs standards. The Broncos finished 9-4 and didnโt even win the Mountain West Mountain Division, finishing behind Air Force. 2016? Call it a return to form. After Thursdayโs thrilling 28-27 win over BYU, the Broncos are 7-0 and the best team in the Mountain West. Quarterback Brett Rypien has been very good, throwing for 2,064 yards and 15 touchdowns against five interceptions, and tailback Jeremy McNichols has 915 rushing yards and 12 scores on the ground.
With Houstonโs recent stumble, Boise State is in prime position to snag the Group of Fiveโsย New Yearโs Six bowl bid. Five regular-season games remain and all are very winnable. The toughest test? Surprisingly, itโs Saturday at Wyoming. Craig Bohlโs rebuilding project is taking hold in Laramie after winning just six games in his first two seasons. The Cowboys are 5-2 and should grab their first bowl bid since 2011.
Boise State should still be favored, but the atmosphere in Laramie is the biggest potential roadblock remaining for Bryan Harsinโs team.
Clemson
4 of 9
Coming off a 14-1 record and national runner-up finish, big things were expected from Clemson and its potent offense this fall. However, there were some anxious moments early on, following six-point wins over Auburn and Troy.
As October rolls on, though, those wins look better and better. Troy is 6-1 and leads the Sun Belt, while Auburn is 5-2 and riding a four-game win streak while looking like one of college footballโs most improved teams. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 7-0 and after surviving a major scare against NCย State, they control their destiny in the ACC and the College Football Playoff chase.
The most difficult task facing Dabo Swinney and Co.? Thatโs clearly Saturdayโs visit to Florida State. Since 2009, the Clemson-FSU game has decided the Atlantic Division winner. That wonโt be the case this fall, as the Seminoles have already absorbed a 63-20 loss at Louisville and a 37-35 last-second loss to North Carolina.
โTheyโre just typical Florida State,โ Swinney told reporters,ย including Safid Deen of the Orlando Sentinel. โTheyโre a very good football team. I know that this will be a huge challenge for us to go down there and do something we havenโt done there in a long time.โ
Winning in Tallahassee will be no easy task for the Deshaun Watson-led offense, though. Clemson hasnโt won at Doak Campbell Stadium since 2006. Two years ago, Watson and the Tigers had FSU on the brink before a late fumble led to overtime and a 23-17 victory. The Seminoles are allowing 28.9 points per game but have one of the nationโs top tailbacks in junior Dalvin Cook, who has 900 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
With Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest and South Carolina ahead, this is the biggest regular-season obstacle between Clemson and another College Football Playoff berth.
Michigan
5 of 9
Itโs good to be Jim Harbaugh these days. Harbaugh is a master of building programs, and his Michigan tenure is going perhaps better than anyone in Ann Arbor could have imagined. Following a 10-3 debut season in 2015, his Wolverines have emerged as one of college footballโs best programs. Theyโre 7-0 and atop the Big Ten East as the leagueโs only unbeaten team after Penn Stateโs 24-21 upset of then-No. 2 Ohio State.
Michigan is dominant on both sides of the ball. The Wolverines average 48.7 points per game, No. 3 nationally, and new defensive coordinator Don Brownโs unit is yielding just 10 points per game, best in the FBS.
Itโs worth noting that the Wolverines have ventured out of Michigan Stadium just once (a 78-0 whipping of Rutgers), but that will change now. Three of Michiganโs final five games are on the road (at struggling Michigan State, at Iowa and then the Nov. 26 regular-season finale with the Buckeyes).
Even with OSUโs defeat, that showdown will likely determine the Big Ten Eastโs winner and set up the winner nicely for a College Football Playoff berth. Michigan will have revenge on its mind following 2015โs 42-13 blowout at the Buckeyesโ hands, and it could also be a Heisman Trophy showcase for linebacker Jabrill Peppers against J.T. Barrett and the Ohio State offense.
Either way, itโll be a game you wonโt want to miss on the final full Saturday of the regular season.
Nebraska
6 of 9
Mike Rileyโs debut season in Lincoln was a year to forget. The Cornhuskers lost five games by five points or fewer and finished 6-7 for the programโs third losing season since 1961. That put more than a little pressure on him for 2016, and he has delivered. The Huskers are 7-0 and No. 7 nationally, sitting atop the Big Ten West.
Thatโs the programโs highest ranking since 2010, and itโs about to be tested. Two tough road games lie ahead, at Wisconsin onย Saturday and at Ohio State onย Nov. 5. The No. 10 Badgersโ stingy defense will be a measuring stick, but the bigger challenge will clearly be against the Buckeyes.
Can an improved defense allowing 17.7 points per game, No. 14 nationally, contain J.T. Barrett and a big-play Ohio State offense? If so, the Huskers will have earned their lofty national ranking and make a push to the College Football Playoff.
Washington
7 of 9
Before 2016, Washington was a popular pick as a breakout team, despite Chris Petersen winning only 14 games in two seasons with the Huskies. Seven games into the season, itโs clear those who had UW on their radar knew what they were talking about. Washington has emerged as one of the nationโs best teams and is a clear College Football Playoff contender at 7-0. The Huskies have outscored foes 190-72, and aside from a 35-28 overtime win at Arizona, theyโve outscored each of their opponents by at least 24 points.
Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning is a legit Heisman Trophy contender; heโs thrown for 1,709 yards with 26 touchdowns against two interceptions. His biggest challenge lies ahead this week when Washington travels to No. 17 Utah.
The Utes are the clear class of the Pac-12 South at 7-1ย and feature a balanced offense and a defense that allows 21.6 points per game, No. 31 nationally. Washingtonโs excellent defense will be tested by back Joe Williams, who gashed UCLA for 232 yards.
Washington has trips to Cal and rival Washington State and home games with Arizona State and Southern California remaining, but this should be their best test left on the schedule.
Western Michigan
8 of 9
One of the best stories in college football is in Kalamazoo, Michigan. P.J. Fleck has built Western Michigan into one of the best Group of Five programs. He shook off a 1-11 record in his first season and turned the Broncos into a consistent winner, going 8-5 in 2014 and matching that record last fall with the programโs first bowl win.
This fall, WMU is even better. The Broncos are 8-0, with wins over Big Ten foes Northwestern and Illinois, and are clearly the best team in the MAC. Four games stand between them and an undefeated regular season, and Ball State, Buffalo and Kent State are a combined 7-16.
Nov. 25โs regular-season finale against Toledo will be the biggest obstacle. The Rockets havenโt missed a beat following coach Matt Campbellโs departure to Iowa State; new coach Jason Candle has led them to a 6-1 record, with their only blemish beingย a wild 55-53 defeat at BYU.
Toledoโs excellent passing attack powers an offense that averages 41.3 points per game, No. 13 nationally. These guys wonโt be intimidated by Western Michigan. The Black Friday meeting will likely decide the MAC West title and serve as a big building block for a potential New Yearโs Six berth.
West Virginia
9 of 9
This fall loomed as a make-or-break season for Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia. After a 10-3 debut capped with an Orange Bowl rout of Clemson in 2011, the Mountaineers were mediocre in Big 12 play. Over the last four seasons, they were just 26-25 overall, 15-21 in league play and had just one winning record in Big 12 play (5-4 in 2014).
Holgorsen had only two years left on his contract and received a public vote of confidence from new athletic director Shane Lyons last December. Well, it appears that Lyonsโ confidence was well-placed. West Virginia is 6-0 and ranked No. 10 nationally, in position for a run at a Big 12 title and potential College Football Playoff berth. Despite replacing eight starters, the Mountaineer defense has been impressive, holding foes to 17.8 points per game (No. 15 nationally), limiting TCU and Texas Tech to a combined 27 points. Senior quarterback Skyler Howard has thrown for 1,821 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions.
The schedule gets tougher in the second half, particularly in the final three games (home vs. Oklahoma and Baylor, sandwiched around a trip to struggling Iowa State).
WVU lost to both teams by a combined 44 points last season, and neither offense will be easy to slow down, although the defense has certainly built confidence against high-powered schemes. Baylor has the better defense and might be a slightly tougher challenge. The Dec. 3 regular-season finale could determine the Big 12โs championship and possibly much, much more.
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