The Biggest Threat to Each Remaining Undefeated College Football Team
With eight weeks down and six remaining in the 2016 college football regular season, we’ve officially entered the push for the College Football Playoff. Conference races are in full swing. We’ve figured out which September surprises are real and which are mirages. Games circled on the calendar as huge in August might not mean so much now, but others have taken their place.
Of 128 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, nine unbeatens remain. Two (Baylor and West Virginia) are currently scheduled to play each other, while two more (Michigan and Nebraska) would meet in the Big Ten title game if they continue on their current paths and win their respective divisions. That would leave us with seven unbeaten teams at season’s end, but history tells us that number will be winnowed significantly when the third College Football Playoff field is announced.
In each of the past two seasons, one unbeaten team has made the playoff field. Two years ago, it was Florida State. Last fall, it was Clemson. Seven unbeatens might seem realistic now, but more surprises and upsets like Penn State’s 24-21 stunner over then-No. 2 Ohio State are on tap. Here’s a look at the toughest game remaining for each unbeaten team.
Alabama
1 of 9
Over the last decade of college football, there’s been Alabama. Then there’s been everyone else. Nick Saban has restored the glory days in Tuscaloosa, winning four national titles in nine seasons. Seven games into 2016, the Crimson Tide are on pace for No. 5 of the Saban era. Alabama is clearly the nation’s No. 1 team, handling foe after foe with ease.
Following a comeback 48-43 win at Ole Miss, the Tide have thrived, winning five straight games by an average of 30.6 points. They throttled then-No. 9 Tennessee 49-10 and scored the game’s final 20 points to handle No. 6 Texas A&M 33-14 on Saturday.
Alabama’s defense is one of the nation’s nastiest, and freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts is doing an excellent job piloting Lane Kiffin’s up-tempo scheme, throwing for 1,549 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions and showing elusiveness with 521 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.
What stands between Alabama and an undefeated regular season? A pair of Tigers. Resurgent Auburn has climbed to No. 15 nationally with four consecutive wins and visits Bryant-Denny Stadium on Nov. 26. But a trip to No. 19 LSU on Nov. 5 looms as a bit tougher. The Tigers have gelled around interim coach Ed Orgeron and won three consecutive games after Les Miles’ firing.
Standout tailback Leonard Fournette finally appears healthy after ripping Ole Miss for 284 yards and three touchdowns on just 16 carries in a 38-21 victory. And he’ll be motivated after the Tide held him to just 31 yards last fall. Winning in Baton Rouge is never easy. The Tide needed a late touchdown to escape with a 21-17 win in 2012 and overtime to seal a 20-13 win in 2014.
Orgeron and a solid defense will make life difficult for Alabama to emerge with another victory.
Baylor
2 of 9
Baylor had a summer to forget. Following an independent university investigation into the mishandling of allegations of sexual assault and violence against women, popular head coach Art Briles, university president Ken Starr and athletic director Ian McCaw all lost their jobs, and former Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe stepped in as interim head coach.
That turbulence hasn’t affected the Bears on the field, though. At 6-0, they’re one of only two unbeatens remaining in the Big 12 along with No. 10 West Virginia. Their best win came over Oklahoma State, but the schedule is about to get tougher.
The Mountaineers, No. 16 Oklahoma, TCU, Texas Tech and Texas still remain on the schedule. Baylor’s rebuilt defense has been very solid thus far, yielding 17.2 points per game, good for No. 11 nationally. But multiple up-tempo schemes will test them. A year ago, Oklahoma handed the Bears their first defeat.
They travel to Norman on Nov. 12. The Sooners have found an impressive gear with quarterback Baker Mayfield and average 354.6 passing yards and 43.9 points per game (No. 7 and No. 8 nationally, respectively).
Saturday, Mayfield torched Texas Tech for 545 yards and seven touchdowns in a 66-59 win, although it must be noted that Patrick Mahomes was even better, throwing for an amazing 734 yards (tying the NCAA single-game record) and five touchdowns.
If Baylor can’t slow down the Sooners’ air raid attack, they’ll see their unbeaten record go by the boards again this year.
Boise State
3 of 9
2015 was something of a down year by Boise State’s standards. The Broncos finished 9-4 and didn’t even win the Mountain West Mountain Division, finishing behind Air Force. 2016? Call it a return to form. After Thursday’s thrilling 28-27 win over BYU, the Broncos are 7-0 and the best team in the Mountain West. Quarterback Brett Rypien has been very good, throwing for 2,064 yards and 15 touchdowns against five interceptions, and tailback Jeremy McNichols has 915 rushing yards and 12 scores on the ground.
With Houston’s recent stumble, Boise State is in prime position to snag the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl bid. Five regular-season games remain and all are very winnable. The toughest test? Surprisingly, it’s Saturday at Wyoming. Craig Bohl’s rebuilding project is taking hold in Laramie after winning just six games in his first two seasons. The Cowboys are 5-2 and should grab their first bowl bid since 2011.
Boise State should still be favored, but the atmosphere in Laramie is the biggest potential roadblock remaining for Bryan Harsin’s team.
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Clemson
4 of 9
Coming off a 14-1 record and national runner-up finish, big things were expected from Clemson and its potent offense this fall. However, there were some anxious moments early on, following six-point wins over Auburn and Troy.
As October rolls on, though, those wins look better and better. Troy is 6-1 and leads the Sun Belt, while Auburn is 5-2 and riding a four-game win streak while looking like one of college football’s most improved teams. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 7-0 and after surviving a major scare against NC State, they control their destiny in the ACC and the College Football Playoff chase.
The most difficult task facing Dabo Swinney and Co.? That’s clearly Saturday’s visit to Florida State. Since 2009, the Clemson-FSU game has decided the Atlantic Division winner. That won’t be the case this fall, as the Seminoles have already absorbed a 63-20 loss at Louisville and a 37-35 last-second loss to North Carolina.
“They’re just typical Florida State,” Swinney told reporters, including Safid Deen of the Orlando Sentinel. “They’re a very good football team. I know that this will be a huge challenge for us to go down there and do something we haven’t done there in a long time.”
Winning in Tallahassee will be no easy task for the Deshaun Watson-led offense, though. Clemson hasn’t won at Doak Campbell Stadium since 2006. Two years ago, Watson and the Tigers had FSU on the brink before a late fumble led to overtime and a 23-17 victory. The Seminoles are allowing 28.9 points per game but have one of the nation’s top tailbacks in junior Dalvin Cook, who has 900 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
With Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest and South Carolina ahead, this is the biggest regular-season obstacle between Clemson and another College Football Playoff berth.
Michigan
5 of 9
It’s good to be Jim Harbaugh these days. Harbaugh is a master of building programs, and his Michigan tenure is going perhaps better than anyone in Ann Arbor could have imagined. Following a 10-3 debut season in 2015, his Wolverines have emerged as one of college football’s best programs. They’re 7-0 and atop the Big Ten East as the league’s only unbeaten team after Penn State’s 24-21 upset of then-No. 2 Ohio State.
Michigan is dominant on both sides of the ball. The Wolverines average 48.7 points per game, No. 3 nationally, and new defensive coordinator Don Brown’s unit is yielding just 10 points per game, best in the FBS.
It’s worth noting that the Wolverines have ventured out of Michigan Stadium just once (a 78-0 whipping of Rutgers), but that will change now. Three of Michigan’s final five games are on the road (at struggling Michigan State, at Iowa and then the Nov. 26 regular-season finale with the Buckeyes).
Even with OSU’s defeat, that showdown will likely determine the Big Ten East’s winner and set up the winner nicely for a College Football Playoff berth. Michigan will have revenge on its mind following 2015’s 42-13 blowout at the Buckeyes’ hands, and it could also be a Heisman Trophy showcase for linebacker Jabrill Peppers against J.T. Barrett and the Ohio State offense.
Either way, it’ll be a game you won’t want to miss on the final full Saturday of the regular season.
Nebraska
6 of 9
Mike Riley’s debut season in Lincoln was a year to forget. The Cornhuskers lost five games by five points or fewer and finished 6-7 for the program’s third losing season since 1961. That put more than a little pressure on him for 2016, and he has delivered. The Huskers are 7-0 and No. 7 nationally, sitting atop the Big Ten West.
That’s the program’s highest ranking since 2010, and it’s about to be tested. Two tough road games lie ahead, at Wisconsin on Saturday and at Ohio State on Nov. 5. The No. 10 Badgers’ stingy defense will be a measuring stick, but the bigger challenge will clearly be against the Buckeyes.
Can an improved defense allowing 17.7 points per game, No. 14 nationally, contain J.T. Barrett and a big-play Ohio State offense? If so, the Huskers will have earned their lofty national ranking and make a push to the College Football Playoff.
Washington
7 of 9
Before 2016, Washington was a popular pick as a breakout team, despite Chris Petersen winning only 14 games in two seasons with the Huskies. Seven games into the season, it’s clear those who had UW on their radar knew what they were talking about. Washington has emerged as one of the nation’s best teams and is a clear College Football Playoff contender at 7-0. The Huskies have outscored foes 190-72, and aside from a 35-28 overtime win at Arizona, they’ve outscored each of their opponents by at least 24 points.
Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning is a legit Heisman Trophy contender; he’s thrown for 1,709 yards with 26 touchdowns against two interceptions. His biggest challenge lies ahead this week when Washington travels to No. 17 Utah.
The Utes are the clear class of the Pac-12 South at 7-1 and feature a balanced offense and a defense that allows 21.6 points per game, No. 31 nationally. Washington’s excellent defense will be tested by back Joe Williams, who gashed UCLA for 232 yards.
Washington has trips to Cal and rival Washington State and home games with Arizona State and Southern California remaining, but this should be their best test left on the schedule.
Western Michigan
8 of 9
One of the best stories in college football is in Kalamazoo, Michigan. P.J. Fleck has built Western Michigan into one of the best Group of Five programs. He shook off a 1-11 record in his first season and turned the Broncos into a consistent winner, going 8-5 in 2014 and matching that record last fall with the program’s first bowl win.
This fall, WMU is even better. The Broncos are 8-0, with wins over Big Ten foes Northwestern and Illinois, and are clearly the best team in the MAC. Four games stand between them and an undefeated regular season, and Ball State, Buffalo and Kent State are a combined 7-16.
Nov. 25’s regular-season finale against Toledo will be the biggest obstacle. The Rockets haven’t missed a beat following coach Matt Campbell’s departure to Iowa State; new coach Jason Candle has led them to a 6-1 record, with their only blemish being a wild 55-53 defeat at BYU.
Toledo’s excellent passing attack powers an offense that averages 41.3 points per game, No. 13 nationally. These guys won’t be intimidated by Western Michigan. The Black Friday meeting will likely decide the MAC West title and serve as a big building block for a potential New Year’s Six berth.
West Virginia
9 of 9
This fall loomed as a make-or-break season for Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia. After a 10-3 debut capped with an Orange Bowl rout of Clemson in 2011, the Mountaineers were mediocre in Big 12 play. Over the last four seasons, they were just 26-25 overall, 15-21 in league play and had just one winning record in Big 12 play (5-4 in 2014).
Holgorsen had only two years left on his contract and received a public vote of confidence from new athletic director Shane Lyons last December. Well, it appears that Lyons’ confidence was well-placed. West Virginia is 6-0 and ranked No. 10 nationally, in position for a run at a Big 12 title and potential College Football Playoff berth. Despite replacing eight starters, the Mountaineer defense has been impressive, holding foes to 17.8 points per game (No. 15 nationally), limiting TCU and Texas Tech to a combined 27 points. Senior quarterback Skyler Howard has thrown for 1,821 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions.
The schedule gets tougher in the second half, particularly in the final three games (home vs. Oklahoma and Baylor, sandwiched around a trip to struggling Iowa State).
WVU lost to both teams by a combined 44 points last season, and neither offense will be easy to slow down, although the defense has certainly built confidence against high-powered schemes. Baylor has the better defense and might be a slightly tougher challenge. The Dec. 3 regular-season finale could determine the Big 12’s championship and possibly much, much more.
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