College Football Playoff Standings 2016: Week 9 Rankings & Bowl Game Projections

At long last, Ohio State provided some shake-up fans can sink their teeth into with these bowl projections.

Since rolling out this weekly column in late September, it has been Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and some rotating fourth team—Louisville, Houston, Washington or Michigan—in the projected College Football Playoff. But with the Buckeyes losing to Penn State and subsequently dropping to No. 6 in the Associated Press Top 25 and No. 8 in the Amway Coaches Poll, it's time to go back to the drawing board in selecting the national semifinalists.

Actually, now that Ohio State is on the outside looking in, for the first (and probably last) time all year, the picture is clearer than ever.

Outside the Top Four, Houston suffered yet another unforgivable loss this week (38-16 at SMU) and would now need a miracle just to win the AAC—let alone play in a New Year's Six bowl game. It didn't even take a full month for the Cougars to drop from the cusp of the CFP to a likely bowl-game pairing with the second- or third-best team from the Sun Belt.

Other than Ohio State and Houston, the only losses suffered by ranked teams were at the hands of other ranked teams.

The SEC West was supposed to deliver the best games of the week, as all three contests among those teams featured ranked opponents. But Alabama, Auburn and LSU each won at home by a comfortable margin to provide a tiny bit of clarity to that conference's pecking order.

There are 20 bowl-eligible teams with 31 others sitting at five wins and hoping to secure that magical sixth victory soon. It's still a challenge to find 80 teams that will win six games this year, but you just know there will be a few currently sub-.500 teams that find that spark in the second half of the season to get there.

But that's enough about the teams barely scraping by. Time to take a look into the crystal ball to find the four teams that will be vying for the national championship in January.

Game	Date	Matchup
Peach Bowl	Dec. 31	No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington
Fiesta Bowl	Dec. 31	No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Clemson

The only possible point of contention here is the order in which Clemson and Washington should be ranked.

Alabama is clearly No. 1. The Crimson Tide have won three consecutive games by a margin of at least 19 points against teams that were ranked No. 16, No. 9 and No. 6 in the AP Top 25. And they're on a bye this coming week, so they'll remain No. 1 for at least another seven days. The road game against LSU will be a challenge, as will the Iron Bowl in the regular-season finale and the SEC Championship Game. However, it's almost impossible to fathom Alabama missing the CFP at this point.

And with Ohio State out of the picture, Michigan is clearly No. 2. The Wolverines are now in the driver's seat to win what is arguably the best conference in the country—though everyone is still waiting to see what they look like when they have to play on the road against a team better than Rutgers.

After those two titans, it's possibly a debate between Clemson, Washington and nobody else. Nebraska and Baylor could get there one day, but their wins aren't nearly impressive enough just yet. Likewise, Louisville, Texas A&M and Ohio State are still in the conversation, but there's simply no way we're taking one of those one-loss teams over the Top Four.

There's no doubt that Clemson belongs at No. 3 and Washington at No. 4. The Huskies once-marquee win over Stanford has lost all its luster with the Cardinal playing like garbage over the past few weeks. Regardless, Clemson's best wins (vs. Louisville, at Auburn) are exponentially better than Washington's.

Yes, four of Clemson's seven wins have come by a one-possession margin, while Washington has only had one game decided by fewer than 24 points. However, quality of win is more important than quantity of scoring margin. Advantage: Tigers.

Game	Date	Matchup
Orange Bowl	Dec. 30	Louisville (6-1) vs. Nebraska (7-0)
Rose Bowl	Jan. 2	Ohio State (6-1) vs. Utah (7-1)
Sugar Bowl	Jan. 2	West Virginia (6-0) vs. Texas A&M (6-1)
Cotton Bowl	Jan. 2	Boise State (7-0) vs. Florida (5-1)

These four pairings are significantly less cut-and-dry.

Let's start with the Sugar Bowl, where West Virginia has leapfrogged Baylor to become the Big 12's representative against Texas A&M. The Bears are ranked higher than the Mountaineers in both polls, but it doesn't matter right now. Of Baylor's six wins, three have come against FBS teams with just one victory this season, and a fourth came against FCS school Northwestern State. Wake us when the Bears play Oklahoma and West Virginia.

In the Rose Bowl, Nebraska was considered instead of Ohio State as the Big Ten's representative, but there's room for both teams in the New Year's Six bowls. They'll settle that debate in two weeks when the Cornhuskers travel to Columbus.

As the runner-up for the Rose Bowl, Nebraska slots in against Louisville in the Orange Bowl. Hope you like points and dual-threat quarterbacks for that game. After Michigan-Clemson, this one tops our list of most watchable matchups.

And, lastly, it's Boise State against Florida in the Cotton Bowl. You could certainly argue for Western Michigan as the "Group of Five" representative here, but we're rolling with the blue-and-orange Broncos until they give us reason not to. And as far as the Florida pick is concerned, we flipped a coin—Baylor lost. Besides, it's hard to believe the SEC is only going to send two teams to the six biggest bowl games. Perhaps Auburn, Tennessee or LSU ultimately takes this spot, but one-loss Florida makes more sense for now.

Game	Date	Matchup
Camellia Bowl	Dec. 17	Western Michigan (8-0) vs. Troy (6-1)
Cure Bowl	Dec. 17	Houston (6-2) vs. Appalachian State (5-2)
Las Vegas Bowl	Dec. 17	USC (4-3) vs. San Diego State (6-1)
New Mexico Bowl	Dec. 17	Hawaii (4-4) vs. Southern Miss (4-3)
New Orleans Bowl	Dec. 17	MTSU (5-2) vs. Georgia Southern (4-3)
Miami Beach Bowl	Dec. 19	Temple (5-3) vs. Old Dominion (4-3)
Boca Raton Bowl	Dec. 20	Memphis (5-2) vs. Ohio (5-3)
Poinsettia Bowl	Dec. 21	BYU (4-4) vs. Air Force (4-3)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl	Dec. 22	Wyoming (5-2) vs. Toledo (6-1)
Armed Forces Bowl	Dec. 23	Texas Tech (3-4) vs. Navy (5-1)
Bahamas Bowl	Dec. 23	North Texas (4-3) vs. Eastern Michigan (5-3)
Dollar General Bowl	Dec. 23	Akron (5-3) vs. Idaho (4-4)
Hawaii Bowl	Dec. 24	New Mexico (4-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (5-3)
Independence Bowl	Dec. 26	N.C. State (4-3) vs. Vanderbilt (4-4)
Quick Lane Bowl	Dec. 26	Indiana (3-4) vs. Wake Forest (5-2)
St. Petersburg Bowl	Dec. 26	UCF (4-3) vs. Western Kentucky (5-3)
Cactus Bowl	Dec. 27	Stanford (4-3) vs. TCU (4-3)
Heart of Dallas Bowl	Dec. 27	Cincinnati (4-3) vs. Central Michigan (5-3)
Holiday Bowl	Dec. 27	Maryland (5-2) vs. Washington State (5-2)
Military Bowl	Dec. 27	Georgia Tech (4-3) vs. South Florida (6-2)
Foster Farms Bowl	Dec. 28	Arizona State (5-3) vs. Northwestern (4-3)
Pinstripe Bowl	Dec. 28	Minnesota (5-2) vs. Pittsburgh (5-2)
Russell Athletic Bowl	Dec. 28	Oklahoma (5-2) vs. Florida State (5-2)
Texas Bowl	Dec. 28	Kansas State (4-3) vs. Ole Miss (3-4)
Alamo Bowl	Dec. 29	Colorado (6-2) vs. Baylor (6-0)
Belk Bowl	Dec. 29	North Carolina (6-2) vs. Tennessee (5-2)
Birmingham Bowl	Dec. 29	South Carolina (3-4) vs. Tulsa (5-2)
Arizona Bowl	Dec. 30	Army (4-3) vs. South Alabama (3-4)
Liberty Bowl	Dec. 30	Oklahoma State (5-2) vs. Georgia (4-3)
Music City Bowl	Dec. 30	Iowa (5-3) vs. Kentucky (4-3)
Sun Bowl	Dec. 30	California (4-3) vs. Virginia Tech (5-2)
Citrus Bowl	Dec. 31	Wisconsin (5-2) vs. Auburn (5-2)
TaxSlayer Bowl	Dec. 31	Miami (4-3) vs. Arkansas (5-3)
Outback Bowl	Jan. 2	Penn State (5-2) vs. LSU (5-2)

Here are some awards for the other 34 games.

—The "Polar Opposites" award goes to the Armed Forces Bowl. On the season, Navy has 333 rush attempts against just 64 passes. The Midshipmen ran the ball 74 times against Memphis in Week 8. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has more than twice as many pass attempts (416) as rushes (193), and quarterback Patrick Mahomes II is responsible for more than a third of those runs. He threw the ball 88 times in last week's loss to Oklahoma.

—The "What Could Have Been" award goes to the Cactus Bowl. Stanford and TCU were No. 8 and No. 13, respectively, in the preseason AP Top 25, but both have stumbled to a current record of 4-3. They're still in much better shape than other members of the preseason Top 25 that are below .500 right now (No. 10 Notre Dame, No. 11 Ole Miss, No. 12 Michigan State, No. 16 UCLA and No. 24 Oregon), but one would have thought the Cardinal and Horned Frogs would meet in a more prestigious bowl game.

—The "Race to 21 Points" award goes to the Citrus Bowl. Auburn and Wisconsin are currently Nos. 3 and 4 in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 14.1 and 14.3 points per game, respectively. At least Auburn can put some points on the board, though. The Tigers have averaged 50.7 per game over their last three, while the Badgers are only averaging 20 in their last five games.

—The "You Must Be New Here" award goes to the Arizona Bowl. South Alabama has only played in one bowl game since joining the FBS ranks in 2012, losing to Bowling Green in the 2014 Camellia Bowl. And Army's only appearance in a bowl game in the past two decades came in the 2010 Armed Forces Bowl. In both cases, those teams barely sneaked in with a 6-6 record. Neither program is accustomed to postseason action.

—And, finally, the "I Would Pay Good Money to See That One" award goes to the Russell Athletic Bowl. Pitting two of the top non-NY6 ACC and Big 12 teams against one another is sure to result in a high-profile affair. In this iteration of the projections, it's No. 12 Florida State against No. 16 Oklahoma. It's way too early to say with any certainty which teams will be playing in which bowls, but the Russell Athletic Bowl will likely be one of the two or three games prior to Dec. 30 that everyone is highlighting when the full schedule is released.