Georgia vs. Florida: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
It may no longer be officially called the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party," but when Florida and Georgia meet up for their annual neutral-site football clash, there's no shortage of partying going on before, during and after.
Held in Jacksonville, Florida, all but twice since the 1930s, this battle of SEC rivals continues to be a highlight on each team's schedule and often has a major impact on who wins the East Division title. Florida used last year's 27-3 victory, its second straight in the series, to go on to the conference championship game.
Georgia has the overall edge, 49-42-2 but has only won five times since 1998.
Fourteenth-ranked Florida (5-1) sits atop the East standings with a 3-1 record but may need to win out in order to claim the division since Tennessee—whom it lost to—is only a game back in the loss column. Georgia (4-3, 2-3) has dropped three of four, including last time out at home to Vanderbilt, to fall out of the division race.
Georgia Keys to Victory
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Establish balance
Georgia's last two games before its bye saw completely different results on offense from one week to the next. In the weather-delayed win at South Carolina, the Bulldogs pounded their way to a season-high 326 rushing yards but couldn't throw the ball, getting just 29 yards through the air on five completions.
A week later true freshman quarterback Jacob Eason had the best game of his career from a statistical standpoint, going 27-of-40 for 346 yards and a touchdown. But without a run game to complement that—Georgia averaged 2.14 yards on 35 carries—the result was a 17-9 home loss to Vanderbilt.
"Georgia has been fairly erratic when it comes to its offensive identity," Chip Towers of Dawg Nation wrote.
For the season, Georgia averages 195.6 rushing yards and 207.3 passing yards per game, but it's rarely been with that kind of balance. The extra week of practice was likely used to figure out the best way to level things out in a way that keeps defenses honest.
Finish series and drives
The Bulldogs have scored on 22 of 27 trips into the red zone, an 81.5 percent success rate that ranks seventh in the SEC. Only 16 of those possessions have resulted in touchdowns, however, as Georgia's issues on third down continue to dictate how the offense goes.
Overall, Georgia is converting 39.25 percent of its third-down plays, but in its three losses, that efficiency drops to 31.9 percent. There have been 20 times when it faced 3rd-and-short (three yards or fewer) and ran the ball, only to get the first down 11 times.
Florida Keys to Victory
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Shake the cobwebs off Del Rio
Luke Del Rio returned from a three-week absence due to injury to throw for 236 yards and a touchdown in Florida's last game, a 40-14 win over Missouri. He also was intercepted three times and completed only 18-of-38 passes.
Considering he'd been out for a while and was still getting used to a brace on his injured knee—"he attributed his struggles to bad footwork," per SEC Country's Ryan Young—some rustiness was understandable. But with another bye to get the kinks out and get more comfortable in action, Del Rio no longer has the luxury of being eased along.
Del Rio averaged 254 yards on 61.4 percent passing and had six TDs with two picks in his first three starts before getting hurt.
Disrupt the backfield
The Gators lead the SEC in total defense, allowing 252 yards per game, aided by 19 sacks that includes five different players managing at least two apiece. But considering Georgia's first tendency is going to be to the run, interfering with that aspect is also important, and Florida hasn't been as adept there.
It's tied for 98th in FBS with 5.17 tackles for loss per game and only four per game have come against SEC competition. It shouldn't be surprising that the Gators allowed a season-worst 498 yards in their loss to Tennessee because they couldn't get into the backfield to cause problems.
Georgia Players to Watch
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Nick Chubb
It's been a little more than a year since Chubb tore several knee ligaments on the first play at Tennessee, robbing him of the final six games of 2015 and putting his future in doubt. Yet not only did Chubb come back in time to play Georgia's season opener, he dominated with 222 yards and two touchdowns against North Carolina.
But the 5'10”, 228-pound junior saw his production dip each ensuing week and then sprained an ankle in the loss at Ole Miss, limiting him to one carry the following week against Tennessee. He was back at full strength against South Carolina, rushing for 121 yards and a TD on 16 carries, only to get held to 40 yards on 16 rushes by Vanderbilt.
Which Nick Chubb will Florida see? The one who is the focal point of the offense and capable of eating up big chunks of yards with every touch or one who is forgotten as Georgia tries to make quarterback Jacob Eason the primary weapon?
Isaiah McKenzie
He may frequently be the smallest guy on the field, but McKenzie knows how to make the most of his 5'8”, 175-pound frame. It's resulted in him becoming Georgia's most diverse weapon, one capable of producing as a rusher, receiver and return man.
The junior leads the Bulldogs with 88.3 all-purpose yards per game that's come via 30 receptions for 415 yards and five touchdowns along with a rushing score and 16 punt or kickoff returns. He averaged 152 all-purpose yards in Georgia's first three games, but his production has dipped since then, particularly as a receiver.
McKenzie has had only 12 catches in the last four games, two more than he hauled in against Missouri when he caught two TD passes and had a career-high 122 receiving yards.
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Florida Players to Watch
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Jordan Scarlett
Florida has been using somewhat of a by-committee approach with its run game, splitting carries between sophomore Scarlett, junior Mark Thompson and freshman Lamical Perine. That trio has combined for 937 yards and eight touchdowns and a healthy 5.45 yards-per-carry average.
Scarlett is the only one of the group that's been in a Georgia rivalry game, though, breaking out for 96 yards on nine carries (including a 60-yard run) last October after getting only 13 touches in the Gators' previous seven games. This season he's run the ball at least nine times every week with a TD in five consecutive games, his 101 yards against Missouri on Oct. 15 a career high.
Jarrad Davis
Its leading tackler with 48 takedowns, Davis is integral to Florida's defense in all aspects. Yet his status for Saturday is uncertain after suffering a sprained ankle in the Oct. 15 win over Missouri.
The 6'2”, 238-pound senior has "been in the training room 24/7" since getting hurt, defensive back Marcus Maye told the Orlando Sentinel.
Florida coach Jim McElwain hasn't provided a concrete update on Davis, saying Monday. per Only Gators, that he "has participated in some light work and will rehab throughout the week in hopes of being able to play."
What They're Saying
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This is Kirby Smart's first experience with the Florida-Georgia game as a head coach, though he was part of the rivalry as a player in the mid-1990s and in stints on the Bulldogs staff in 1999 and 2005. And it's not as if he's inexperienced in the rivalry department since during his time at Alabama he was part of some classic Iron Bowl games against Auburn.
Smart is trying to downplay the significance of the Florida game over others, using geography as part of his argument (per GeorgiaDogs.com):
"We've said before, there's five states contiguous with Georgia, so they're all huge rivalries, and to say that one is more important than the other, I think that's unfair. I think when you say SEC East, you've have to rank those opponents first because in order to advance you've have to beat those teams. So those would be all 1As. Then you cross over to the West and it makes it a little different. This game is big and they're all big. Not to say that one is bigger than the other.
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You will not see any official signage or merchandise referring to Saturday's game as the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party," a designation that's existed since the 1950s. The schools' websites are promoting it as the "River City Showdown," which is what you'll find on T-shirts for sale online and likely in and around EverBank Field in Jacksonville.
But old habits die hard, and if people want to call Florida-Georgia by its unofficial name, so be it. At least one well-respected SEC mainstay doesn't care if anyone is bothered by him using the old "Cocktail Party" nickname.
CBS Sports' Verne Lundquist, who has broadcasted SEC games for decades and is set to retire after this season, is calling Saturday's game. On last week's broadcast (h/t Marc Weiszer of OnlineAthens) he called it the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" and then added "what are they going to do, fire me?"
Prediction
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Did Georgia peak in its first game this season? The Bulldogs team that had season-highs in points (33) and yards (474) against North Carolina hasn't been seen from much since then as offensive inconsistency has become the norm. That's not ideal for a team about to face the nation's No. 2 defense in Florida.
The Gators haven't been exactly tearing it up on offense, though their 40-14 win over Missouri last time out was promising. Luke Del Rio was shaky in his first action in a month, but the run game remains solid and dependable. With an extra week to tinker, Florida should be in good shape.
The last two Florida-Georgia games have been lopsided affairs won by Florida as Georgia didn't look like it had showed up. Kirby Smart won't allow for that to happen, so expect a contest that comes down to the fourth quarter and will hinge on who makes a key defensive play in the final minutes.
Florida 24, Georgia 20
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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