Blind Resumes for College Football's Top Playoff Contenders

An important event is happening on a Tuesday next month, something that has the potential to mold and shape everything we know. There's also the presidential election.

On Nov. 1, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release its first rankings for the 2016 season, setting the stage for the stretch run and determining which programs will get a chance to play for the national championship. There are plenty of legitimate contenders in the mix for a playoff spot, as well as others that with a strong finish—and a little help from #TeamChaos—can grab a bid.

There's still another weekend of action before those initial playoff rankings come out, but with eight weeks accounted for, the playoff contenders' resumes are starting to fill out. Each has its strengths and weaknesses, as well as its factions of supporters and detractors.

The whole process can be downright messy, which is why we're glad we don't have to pick the four playoff qualifiers in early December.

But if we did, the best way to handle this task would be to throw out the teams' names, their mascots, their coaches and anything else that makes them easily identifiable and look strictly at the numbers. It's called blind resumes, and only the numbers matter.

First up are the basics: record, strength of schedule and quality wins.

Below is a chart listing those pertinent numbers for the 14 programs that have the most realistic shot to make the playoff. They include every remaining unbeaten and the five one-loss programs from power conferences. Based on the brief history of the playoff, this is the pool from which the semifinalists will be chosen; no program with two or more losses has been selected.

Each team has been assigned a letter (which may or may not correspond to the first letter of its name) so as to keep them anonymous:

Team	Record	SOS	Top 25 Wins	Who Beat Them?
A	8-0	5	9, 18*	–
B	7-0	18	11, 24	–
C	7-0	3	5, 15*	–
D	7-0	49	–	–
E	7-0	68	–	–
F	6-0	79	–	–
G	6-0	31	–	–
H	7-0	62	–	–
I	8-0	69	–	–
J	6-1	10	12	3*
K	6-1	8	11*, 16*	24*
L	6-1	2	15*, 18	1*
M	5-1	47	–	18*
N	7-1	43	–	NR*

Note: Strength of schedule numbers from TeamRankings.com. Numbers in the Top 25 Wins and Who Beat Them? categories refer to the current Associated Press rankings, and numbers with asterisks refer to true road games.

Now to sift through these numbers and determine which teams are the best. To do this requires deciding which information matters more, whether it be overall record, the quality of opponents or where those games were played (or some combination).

Below is how the author would rank these teams, using only the information provided so far:

1. Team A
2. Team C
3. Team B
4. Team K
5. Team L
6. Team G
7. Team D
8. Team J
9. Team M
10. Team N
11. Team H
12. Team E
13. Team I
14. Team F

If only it were that easy.

The playoff selection committee will look at wins and losses, who they came against and where the games were played, but it will also have a slew of other data. Did a team win its games by slim margins, or did it blow its opponents out? Did it dominate on the stat sheet, both offensively and defensively? Did it take a methodical approach or one predicated on big plays?

Some of those things might not seem important, but remember that in addition to selecting the four best and most worthy playoff teams, the committee also wants to set up competitive semifinals that—here's a huge factor—will make for appointment television.

With the Fiesta and Peach bowls set for New Year's Eve again this season, casual fans will need a reason to tune in and stay tuned in throughout the evening.

Below, we listed the same 14 programs with the same "Team X" designations along with the strength of schedule numbers from the previous chart as well as figures related to their margins of victory and statistical profiles:

Team	SOS	Scoring Margin (Rank)	YPG Margin (Rank)	YPP Margin (Rank)
A	5	29.0 (5)	223.5 (4)	2.57 (4)
B	18	38.7 (1)	276.0 (2)	2.70 (3)
C	3	21.3 (8)	175.7 (6)	2.01 (7)
D	49	33.7 (2)	168 (8)	2.90 (2)
E	68	16.4 (10)	104.5 (12)	0.82 (13)
F	79	26.5 (6)	228.9 (3)	2.45 (5)
G	31	15.2 (12)	117.8 (10)	1.47 (10)
H	62	13.9 (13)	117.6 (11)	1.96 (8)
I	69	25.1 (7)	149.1 (9)	1.15 (11)
J	10	29.9 (4)	315.6 (1)	3.48 (1)
K	8	30.9 (3)	223.3 (5)	2.21 (6)
L	2	15.3 (11)	57.0 (14)	1.13 (12)
M	47	18.3 (9)	174.5 (7)	1.69 (9)
N	43	8.3 (14)	70.0 (13)	0.08 (14)

Using these numbers—which eliminate records and mentions of notable victories and losses—this is how the author ranks the 14 contenders:

1. Team J
2. Team A
3. Team K
4. Team B
5. Team C
6. Team L
7. Team D
8. Team G
9. Team M
10. Team N
11. Team F
12. Team H
13. Team E
14. Team I

Quite a difference, huh? The eighth-best team from the first chart is now No. 1, and the second-best squad is sitting outside the playoff at No. 5.

Something to consider when using statistics—which we didn't for this experiment—is if they came as a result of garbage time. The playoff committee is likely to be cognizant of how such numbers can distort the picture, as you see how much just raw numbers can affect the debate.

Now to bring everything together and reveal which team had which resume. Using the average of ranks from each of the previous charts, we re-ranked the 14 playoff contenders and compared those figures to the current Associated Press poll's. If teams' average blind scores were the same, the team with the higher strength of schedule won out:

	Team	Avg Blind Score	Rank	AP Ranking	Difference
Team A	Alabama	1.5	1	1	None
Team C	Clemson	3.5	2	3	1
Team K	Ohio State	3.5	3	6	3
Team B	Michigan	3.5	4	2	-2
Team J	Louisville	4.5	5	5	None
Team L	Texas A&M	5.5	6	9	3
Team G	West Virginia	7	7	10	3
Team D	Washington	7	8	4	-4
Team M	Florida	9	9	12	3
Team N	Utah	10	10	13	3
Team H	Boise State	11.5	11	11	None
Team E	Nebraska	12.5	12	7	-5
Team F	Baylor	12.5	13	8	-5
Team I	Western Michigan	13.5	14	14	None

Note: Since Boise State, Florida, Utah and Western Michigan are ranked lower in the AP poll than two-loss teams we didn't consider, we listed their AP ranking as if those non-considered programs didn't exist.

And there you have it.

Defending national champion Alabama is deservedly the top team in the country and should be the No. 1 seed, but after that it gets cloudy. Clemson has struggled in some of its games but remains perfect and has played a strong schedule, while unbeatens such as Baylor, Nebraska, Washington and West Virginia still have to prove their mettle. And look at one-loss programs Louisville, Ohio State and Texas A&M, all of whom are still very much in the mix.

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Based on where we stand now, the Cardinals and Aggies could end up making the playoff without playing for their conference championship since Clemson and Alabama hold the edge in their divisions with head-to-head wins. Ohio State is in the best position of any one-loss team, though, since it still has potentially resume-boosting games against Nebraska and Michigan on the docket. In particular, the contest against the Wolverines will likely give the Buckeyes a shot to win the division title.

That's how we see it right now, but after this weekend things could—and probably will—look different. Eight of the 14 teams in contention for the playoff play on the road in Week 9, including the seven unbeatens that will be in action.

The playoff committee will no doubt see things in a different light than we did, and we're sure you do as well. Give us your thoughts in the comments section.

All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.