NFL Predictions Week 7: Chris Simms' Weekly Projections

Whine all you want on Twitter about Antonio Brown or Julio Jones.

I’m still sticking by my tweet from last Sunday. When it comes to star pass-catchers, there’s Odell Beckham Jr. and then there’s everyone else. Simple as that.

Let me explain in a way that even the most Twitter-angry fanboys can understand. There’s no denying Brown and Jones are exceptional talents. They also happen to play in offensive systems that send them deep all the time.

Meanwhile, Beckham runs three main routes—slants, hitches and shallow crosses. The mere fact that he’s breaking those off for 60-plus-yard touchdowns is a testament to his talent. He defies his conservative system; he single-handedly turns the Giants into a scoring threat.

I watched every snap OBJ took this week. Flip through this slideshow and you’ll find a big prediction about—I’ll say this one more time—the best receiver in the game today.

Upset Alert!

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Prediction: Chargers over Falcons

The film doesn’t lie. Atlanta is much better than advertised.

Its defense will still have its hands full when Philip Rivers comes to town. Chargers head coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt leverage play-calling and formation to create the best possible mismatch. Rivers exploits it in three seconds or less—and that will be tough on a Falcons pass rush that struggles to get going as is.

Kyle Shanahan can throw so much at an opponent offensively. But the Falcons coordinator probably knows his offense lacks a true dropback passing game. Matt Ryan is asked to either hand the ball off or run play-action fakes. What happens if the Bolts don’t bite?

Cakewalk of the Week

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Prediction: Patriots over Steelers

I’ve seen Ben Roethlisberger move in the pocket.

I know how Ben Roethlisberger can extend a play.

You, Landry Jones, are no Ben Roethlisberger, who is out for four to six weeks with a knee injury. Pittsburgh’s deep passing attack doesn’t have the same oomph without No. 7 behind center (more on that later). It’s not wise to think Jones can match scores with a Tom Brady-led offense.

That’s doubly true when you consider the state of the Steelers defense. Cam Heyward is out with a hamstring injury. Ryan Shazier might play but without his normal powers (knee). Those two guys would have helped prevent Brady from picking Pittsburgh apart over the middle. Without them? Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski will be open all day.

Matchup Nightmare

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Prediction: Halapoulivaati Vaitai vs. Minnesota Vikings front four

Say it with me: Hal-lah-poo-li-VAH-tee VIE-tie.

You’ll hear that name often this Sunday. The Eagles’ struggling rookie right tackle will be tasked with stopping the deepest D-line in football. If that’s not a nightmare for head coach Doug Pederson, I’m not sure what is.

Pederson will try his darnedest to help out Vaitai. He’ll keep a running back in the backfield or tight end Brent Celek in to chip. But it won’t be enough against the likes of Danielle Hunter and Brian Robison.

Those are only two names. I guarantee the six other Vikings who star on that line all want a piece of Vaitai. Mike Zimmer will give them all a crack at him.

Must-Watch Rookie

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Prediction: Jalen Ramsey

Jalen Ramsey has shown flashes of lockdown ability through five NFL games.

He’ll have to show a lot more in his sixth. The Raiders' Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree pose the biggest receiving threat he’s faced yet. My eyes will be glued to this game to see how he responds.

Ramsey is kicking ass at multiple positions. His tackling skills are phenomenal. His closing speed is unmatched in Gus Bradley’s secondary. Both skills will come in handy when No. 89 or No. 15 tries him deep on a go route.

All that draft buzz has died down since the spring. It’s time for Ramsey to show he’s capable of shutting down the best in the business.

Dark-Horse MVP Candidate of the Week

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Prediction: Von Miller

The last non-quarterback or running back to win MVP played on my dad’s 1986 Giants team. His name? Lawrence Taylor.

I threw this category in my weekly mix to shed light on unconventional MVP candidates. Up first: the closest pass-rusher to Taylor we’ve seen yet.

I’m talking about Von Miller, of course. The defending Super Bowl MVP is the most valuable piece on a contending team this year. He’s had at least a half-sack in his last seven regular-season games. But of course he can’t win this award because he plays defense.

Just watch what he does against his old quarterback in Week 7. I bet Brock Osweiler will think Miller is MVP-worthy when Monday Night Football is through.

Best Game No One Is Talking About

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Prediction: Saints at Chiefs

On one sideline: a coach-quarterback duo that’s nearly impossible to stop. Drew Brees will be good and ready for Kansas City’s secondary. I don’t think he’ll be too worried about testing Marcus Peters deep—especially if it’s going to big-play magnet Brandin Cooks.

On the other sideline: a ground-and-pound offense that might flatten the Saints. Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware can keep the chain gang active at home Sunday. Then Alex Smith can tear up New Orleans’ zone defense with dink-and-dunk throws.

All in front of the beautiful backdrop of Arrowhead Stadium? This game is appointment television.

Sleeper Stat-Stuffer

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Prediction: Giovani Bernard

Hue Jackson is a little familiar with that A.J. Green fellow.

The former Bengals assistant is the Browns head coach now. He’ll do everything in his power to make sure No. 18 doesn’t score six. That’s when I expect a heavy dose of Gio Bernard.

As a receiver, Bernard can slide right into the space left behind a Green go or deep post route. Bernard might also break free as a runner; Cleveland’s rush defense is 27th-best in football.

Either way, Bernard’s best trait is his elusiveness. Guess what this Browns defense is worst at? Sound tackling.

Under/Over Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards

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Line: 130

Prediction: Over

I’m ready to put my money where my predictions are—figuratively, of course.

Odell Beckham Jr. is a once-in-a-generation receiving talent. He’s also an entertainer (as evidenced by his kicking-net love affair). This weekend’s game in London offers Beckham the largest playing stage since his LSU days.

Some showmen just know how to put on a show.

The X’s and O’s favor another big Beckham game. We don’t know what we’re getting from a banged-up Trumaine Johnson. Even then, the Rams use lots of zone looks. Those are ideal for quick OBJ catches and big yards after that.

Bonus prediction: Zero net romance this week. His teammates are tired of it.

Under/Over Sam Bradford Passing Touchdowns

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Line: 3.5

Prediction: Under

Eagles head coach Doug Pederson called the Sam Bradford-to-Vikings trade a “win-win” for both teams, per Paul Domowitch of Philly.com.

His defensive linemen won’t see it that way. Remember: Bradford staged a mini-holdout and spiked team drama when Philly drafted Carson Wentz. Fletcher Cox and Co. will come after him with a vengeance.

Bradford won’t have ground-game help to take some of the heat off. Minnesota’s rushing offense is dead last in the league. The Eagles can contain it with six or seven guys. The other four or five will play deep coverage and prevent Bradford from finding any deep targets.

More Total Yards: Le’Veon Bell or Antonio Brown?

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Prediction: Le’Veon Bell

This question is really a deep dive inside the mind of Bill Belichick.

Which star will the defensive mastermind sabotage? Despite his deep admiration for Le’Veon Bell, I bet it’s Antonio Brown.

Here’s my reasoning: Landry Jones can only gain confidence with a few deep throws to Brown. Their big-play connection is the only glimmer of hope Pittsburgh has in this game. Belichick knows this, and his coverage will prove it.

Bell isn’t dangerous in that way. He’ll make seven defenders miss on a 12-yard run, but he rarely breaks one for 60. New England’s defense would rather allow that than bombs to Brown.

Under/Over Brock Osweiler Interceptions

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Line: 2.5

Prediction: Under

Brock Osweiler has probably paid a few visits to the head coach’s office this week.

The main talking point? Turnovers. Bill O’Brien knows his quarterback can’t be an interception factory if he wants to top Denver’s defense. Osweiler should have the words “ball security” seared in his brain before Monday night.

Houston’s defense is great. Its running game came alive. But its quarterback can’t give possessions away. Osweiler and O’Brien must find a way to stay under this mark. They’ll figure it out.

More Passing Attempts: Kirk Cousins or Matt Stafford?

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Prediction: Matt Stafford

Jay Gruden’s offense desperately needed balance to be competitive. It also needed to take some responsibility off Kirk Cousins’ plate.

Washington has accomplished both in the past few weeks. The Redskins offense can actually run the rock. Who knew?

Cousins doesn’t need to throw it 40 times in this game. His counterpart probably does, though.

Detroit’s top back is Zach Zenner right now. Its offensive line has a rookie starter and four underachieving run-blockers. There’s no one like Brandon Scherff or Trent Williams playing ball in the Motor City.