College Football Teams That Are Fool's Gold in Race for Playoff
Midway through the 2016 college football season, several teams have unexpectedly climbed the rankings and joined the periphery of the College Football Playoff picture.
However, not all of them are here to stay.
Using Odds Shark's Oct. 18 championship futures update as a guide, we'll identify five programs listed with top-12 odds that won't reach the season-ending four-team tournament.
While the futures odds were an unbiased way to choose the biggest contenders, the list is organized by AP Top 25 ranking.
No. 25 LSU Tigers (+3300)
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Despite the frustration that led to head coach Les Miles' dismissal, LSU—perhaps surprisingly—still has the eighth-highest championship odds.
Although the Tigers already have two losses, they dropped games to now-No. 10 Wisconsin and No. 21 Auburn. The argument for LSU is small but realistic because of its upcoming schedule.
Ed Orgeron's team has five games remaining, and all five are against ranked teams, including No. 23 Ole Miss, No. 1 Alabama, No. 17 Arkansas, No. 15 Florida and No. 6 Texas A&M.
Navigating that slate unblemished is highly unlikely, and the Tigers have zero margin for error.
No. 16 Oklahoma Sooners (+3300)
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Even with LSU at +3300 (bet $100 to win $3,300), Oklahoma has a practically identical resume.
The Sooners opened the year with a neutral(ish)-site loss to Houston and fell to Ohio State. They cannot afford to drop a third game, but could put together an argument, though it would not be as convincing as LSU's.
Assuming Oklahoma handles Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State, its final three contests are against No. 9 Baylor, No. 12 West Virginia and rival Oklahoma State.
But even if the Sooners rattle off six more wins to finish 10-2, the playoff committee still might prefer a one-loss Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson or Louisville.
No. 12 West Virginia Mountaineers (+5000)
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West Virginia didn't get much attention in the offseason, but a 5-0 record is good enough for a No. 12 ranking nationally.
"I'm excited where we're at," head coach Dana Holgorsen said, according to John Raby of the Associated Press. "But it's just five games. We've got seven more important ones coming up."
The Mountaineers own two quality nonconference wins (Missouri and BYU) and a pair of Big 12 victories (Kansas State and Texas Tech), but the road is only getting tougher. TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma and Baylor are still on the slate.
West Virginia's surprising defense gives the team a chance, but the program has never lost fewer than three games under Holgorsen. We'll have to see it to believe it.
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No. 9 Baylor Bears (+4000)
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The bad news for Baylor is the team looked mediocre against SMU, Rice and Iowa State. The good news is wins don't need to be pretty—and the Bears should be ready for the toughest stretch.
"We have a bye week, again, we get to rest again," cornerback Ryan Reid said, according to Suzanne Halliburton of the Austin American-Statesman. "Everybody else should be worried about Baylor."
Still, the starters have routinely struggled, and depth is an issue. While not impossible, it's difficult to see Baylor surviving a season-ending slate that includes road trips to Oklahoma and West Virginia, as well as clashes with Texas, TCU, Kansas State and Texas Tech.
You just don't know which team is going to show up. Eventually, that—and once the CFP rankings finally arrive, a weak nonconference slate—will doom the Bears.
No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers (+4000)
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If going 6-0 was so easy, more teams would do it. But it's also OK to admit Nebraska has taken advantage of a favorable schedule.
After hosting Purdue, though, the Cornhuskers will have two chances to prove their merit with road trips to Wisconsin and Ohio State. Both defenses are ranked in the top 12 nationally and will be playing against an offense that is hobbled all over.
Worst of all for Nebraska, quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. has been affected by an ankle injury for a couple of weeks. While he's a fine passer, it could be a frustrating night for the Huskers if either defense doesn't need to respect his mobility.
Perhaps Mike Riley's team can recover and secure a Big Ten Championship Game berth, and getting there is half the battle. But with Michigan or Ohio State as the eventual opponent, the 2016 outlook isn't promising for a banged-up Nebraska team.
All recruiting information via Scout. Stats from cfbstats or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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