In Review: The 2009 Washington Nationals Starting Lineup

Okay, the 2009 season is finally over.

Now what?

Although the Nationals’ 59-103 record was the worst in all of baseball—and for the second year in a row, no less—the surprising number of good things that happened this year will make the off-season a time for building, and not rebuilding.

Let’s take a look at the final statistics for the Nationals’ starting lineup and see who did, and didn’t, help the Nationals in 2009:

1B: Adam Dunn

.267-38-105 (.398 OBP, 175 strikeouts, 116 walks)

Dunn’s offensive numbers were far better than most of us projected them to be. With the exception of the last two weeks of the season, he was consistent and provided the big bat in the middle of the lineup that the Nationals so desperately needed.

Defensively, Dunn’s fielding average at first was .986, six points below the league average. That said, it was only three points below Nick Johnson’s, the man he replaced. He will never be a defensive standout, but he has shown he can be competent at first base.

And with his big bat, that’s all he really needs to be to help the Nationals.

2B: Alberto Gonzalez

.265-1-33 (.299 OBP)

Gonzalez is a placeholder at second base until a trade—or a free agent signing—brushes him aside.

His offensive numbers would certainly be good enough were it not for his abysmal on-base percentage and on-again, off-again defensive ability.

If the Nationals can upgrade second base with a proven major league infielder, Gonzalez should return to the bench, where he can be a valuable and versatile utility player.

If, however, Gonzalez is still in the running for a starting job come next spring, the Nationals are in for another very long season.

SS: Cristian Guzman

.284-6-52 (.306 slugging percentage)

Guzman’s .284 batting average is very solid for a shortstop. Sadly, it’s all downhill from there for the 31-year-old veteran. His .306 on-base percentage is terrible. Guzman’s slugging percentage dropped a full 50 points from last season to .390.

And defensively, Guzman, once a premier defender, committed 20 errors and had a fielding percentage 12 points lower than the league average.

In other words, he has no real value anymore. After watching Ian Desmond over the last few weeks of the season, Guzman’s flaws, once hidden by the apathy of the long and losing season, have become quite obvious.

I seriously doubt that he will be the starting shortstop next year for the Nationals. Though he has publicly said he doesn’t want to, he’ll likely slide over to second in 2010, opening up short for Desmond or a professional shortstop acquired in a trade or via free agency.

With one year remaining on his $8 million contract, it will be difficult to trade Guzman, but if the team is willing to eat part of his salary, a trade can be made.

3B: Ryan Zimmerman

.292-33-106 (.364 OBP, .565 SLG)

This was the year Nationals’ fans have been waiting for. After a superb rookie season, Zimmerman’s offensive numbers seemed to have stagnated—perhaps even slid a bit—and that perhaps Ryan was destined to be a Gold Glove defender with a “good enough” bat.

However, by season’s end, Zimmerman emerged as a true star.

Defensively, he is deserving of his first Gold Glove. It was announced this morning that Zimmerman had the most total points in the ESPN Web Gems race, as well as the most number of appearances.

He cut down his errors this year, stopped airmailing his throws, and had his best defensive year since 2006.

Ryan Zimmerman has grown into “the face of the franchise.”

LF: Josh Willingham

.260-24-61 (.367 OBP, .496 SLG)

162 game projection: .261-31-80

This was a season of ups-and-downs for the 30-year-old. After starting the year as a reserve deep on the bench, and then hitting two grand slams in one game and getting his batting average above .290, Willingham settled in and had a typical Willingham-esque season: good power and RBI production with a soft batting average and adequate defense.

Willingham is consistent and professional. He will carry the Nationals for a few weeks when he gets hot, but he is not in the same class as Zimmerman and Dunn.

Then again, the Nationals don’t need him to be.

Willingham is a complimentary player who is “good enough” in all offensive categories to be a valuable starting player.

Defensively, his lack of speed makes him a liability for balls hit into the alley. Well, that would be the case were it not for the fact that Nyjer Morgan plays center and is able to get to most balls that Willingham can’t reach.

CF: Nyjer Morgan

With Pittsburgh: .277-2-27 (18 steals, .351 OBP), with Washington: .351-1-12 (24 steals, .396 OBP)

2009 Total: .307-3-39 (.369 OBP, 42 steals)

Baseball is a very funny game. The Nationals won 59 games without Adam Dunn in 2008 and they won 59 games with him this year. A $10 million a year slugger didn’t make any difference at all.

But the acquisition of Nyjer Morgan in June helped the team greatly. The Nationals were 24-28 with Morgan in 2009 and just 35-75 without him. And the Pirates were 36-41 before they traded Morgan and 26-58 afterwards.

Sometimes difference makers don’t come with gaudy statistics.

Though Morgan hit .286 in parts of three seasons with Pittsburgh, he wasn’t considered as anything more than a complementary player. He had an adequate on-base percentage, no power, and was thrown out 40% of the time when trying to steal.

He was considered an above-average outfielder but played exclusively in left for the Pirates.

But after the trade, Morgan excelled with the Nationals. He added energy to an otherwise moribund lineup.  He used his speed to force errors on the base paths and looked more like an acrobat than a center fielder on defense.

It was almost as if he willed his team to victory. The Nationals and Pirates were a combined nine games under .500 with Morgan and 72 games under .500 without him.

This sounds strange to say, but the Nationals need to build their team around Morgan and not Ryan Zimmerman or Adam Dunn.

RF: Elijah Dukes

.250-8-58 (.337 OBP, .393 SLG)

162 Game Projection: .250-12-87

This wasn’t a very good season for Dukes, who was coming off a .264-13-44 campaign in 2008 (.264-26-88 projected over an entire year). Every measurable level of offensive production dropped significantly in 2009.

I fully expected Dukes to blossom into a solid contributor this season, hitting somewhere in the range of .280-30-100 with 25 stolen bases while playing stellar defense. It didn’t happen.

While Dukes’ strikeout ratio dropped from 28% in 2008 to 20% this year, his OPS dropped more than 50 points. He’s making better contact but he’s not driving the ball.

Mike Rizzo said on Monday that he believes that Dukes should be the team’s starting right fielder in 2010, and that he drives in a lot of runs given his low batting average.

It was a luke-warm vote of confidence.

My guess is that there are two possibilities regarding Dukes in 2010. He will either have a breakout season and become an integral part of the Nationals for years to come, or he will be demoted, or traded, or released, never to be heard from again.

C: Wil Nieves and Josh Bard

243-7-57

When Jesus Flores was lost for the season after just 29 games, Washington was forced to play the majority of the year with two backup catchers. While Wil Nieves and Josh Bard played well, the Nationals desperately missed Flores’ emerging bat.

Flores, 24, was on pace to bat .301-20-75 and would have anchored the lower part of the lineup. His defense continues to improve and one day soon—if he is ever able to remain healthy—will become one of the best all around catchers in the National League.

We’ll take a look at the pitching staff tomorrow.