SEC Football Q&A: Does Tennessee or Florida Have an Easier Path to East Title?
The SEC East race just got a bit more interesting.
Sure, Tennessee (5-2, 2-2 SEC) roared back to break an 11-year losing streak to division rival Florida last month in Knoxville, but it promptly lost back-to-back conference games over the last two weeks to fall a game behind the Gators (5-1, 3-1) in the loss column in the SEC race.
Which team has the easier path to the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta? That question and more are answered in this week's edition of SEC Q&A.
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Believe it or not, it's actually Tennessee—despite Florida still controlling its own destiny.
That seems a little backward, I know. But the Vols—who now hit the bye week with enough injuries to fill a doc-in-the-box (you can read the entire novel, er, list from SEC Country here)—should be able to win out as long as no more catastrophic injuries befall key players like quarterback Joshua Dobbs and running back Jalen Hurd.
Just look at that schedule the Vols have down the stretch. Conference games at South Carolina (2-4), vs. Kentucky (3-3), vs. Missouri (2-4) and at Vanderbilt (3-4) don't exactly seem too daunting for the "Voo Doo Vols," who won't have the pressure of living up to potential College Football Playoff expectations weighing them down anymore.
Conversely, Florida's schedule just got tougher.
While Tennessee dropped both of its cross-division games, Florida is yet to play either of its games against the West.
The trip to Arkansas in early November looks a little more troublesome now, after the Hogs appeared to solve their offensive line issues in the 34-30 win over Ole Miss last weekend. What's more, what was scheduled to be a home game against LSU will now happen in Baton Rouge after Hurricane Matthew postponed the matchup earlier this month.
It's now the conference finale for the Gators, and it could be a game that makes or breaks interim head coach Ed Orgeron's future with LSU.
It's more likely that Florida—a team that relies heavily on defense and has yet to get into an offensive groove—drops one of those games or gets upset somewhere else than it is that the Vols stumble down the stretch.
Don't believe me? ESPN's Football Power Index has Tennessee's win-out percentage at 12.3 percent—18th in the country. Florida is way down at No. 63 at 0.4 percent.
The Vols are still the favorite in the East to play for the SEC title in Atlanta on Dec. 3, but they need a little help to get there.
The Big 12's decision not to expand should result in a raucous cheer from athletic director Joe Alleva's office at LSU, because it's tremendous news for the Tigers.
Houston Cougars head coach Tom Herman will undoubtedly be at or near the top of virtually every coaching short list this offseason, and he would be tempted to keep his current job at Houston had the Cougars received that elusive Big 12 invitation.
Why?
He has already built the program to a point where it's routinely in the national spotlight, proved that he can win big games (Oklahoma this year, Florida State last year) and would have a ton of equity with the Houston administration as it transitioned to the new conference.
Now that it has become clear that it won't happen, LSU's only potential obstacle is a big one—the Texas Longhorns.
If Charlie Strong is dismissed, it's going to be hard for LSU to beat out Texas for Herman's services. Herman has coached at Texas, Texas Lutheran, Sam Houston State, Texas State and Rice, knows the recruiting landscape and would absolutely provide the spark that Texas needs.
In addition to being an offensive genius who helped Ohio State win the 2014 national title with third-string quarterback Cardale Jones, Herman's defense is salty as well. The Cougars rank 10th in the nation in total defense (298.7 yards per game), 19th in yards per play (4.77) and 20th in scoring defense (19 points per game).
Plus, he'd have the power of the Texas brand to sell to all of the recruits in the Lone Star State.
So if you're an LSU fan and want Herman, you better root for Strong to turn things around in Austin. If he does, Herman will be yours.
Yes, it can.
I'm not saying it will, but it can.
Alabama is a monster, head coach Nick Saban's defense is the most athletic defense he's ever had in Tuscaloosa and the work offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has done easing true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts into the starting quarterback role should earn him plenty of consideration for the Broyles Award, given to the nation's top assistant coach.
But Texas A&M isn't too shabby, either.
The defense has been solid all year, save for the overtime win over Tennessee when several players including defensive end Myles Garrett were beat up. The receiving corps led by Josh Reynolds, Christian Kirk and Ricky Seals-Jones is ultra-versatile and creates matchup problems, quarterback Trevor Knight is a threat through the air and on the ground, and the running game leads the SEC at 274.33 yards per game.
It's as complete of a team as there is, and it will certainly challenge the Crimson Tide.
"Texas A&M probably presents as many issues as any team we have played all year," Saban said on Monday. "They are very well-coached; Kevin Sumlin has done a really good job there on offense, defense and special teams. They are highly ranked in a lot of categories, whether it's turnover ratio, scoring defense or their ability to run the ball."
The oddsmakers have the Aggies as 16.5-point underdogs, according to Odds Shark, which seems insanely high. With Garrett back, expect the Aggies to bring more pressure than Hurts has seen during his short stint as the starting quarterback, that opportunistic secondary to feast with a couple of turnovers and the Aggies to have a chance at the upset late in the fourth.
Texas A&M isn't a flash-in-the-pan team like it has been in each of the last two seasons. It's a more complete team that will stay in the SEC West title mix into November—win or lose.
Yeah, LSU will get to a bowl. It might not be easy, but it'll get to a bowl.
I look at it this way for the Tigers: Pretty much every game down the stretch is a toss-up. They host Ole Miss, Alabama and Florida, and they travel to Arkansas and Texas A&M.
That's a pretty brutal stretch, no doubt.
I do have my concerns on whether the new-look Tigers offense can be as explosive as it's been in two games with Orgeron when its back is up against the wall. After all, Missouri and Southern Miss didn't take away the run the way that some of the future opponents can.
But two wins out of that group, knowing that the offense will continue to evolve with Danny Etling settling into the starting quarterback role and star running back Leonard Fournette coming back, should be the bare minimum.
This is still a stellar Tigers defense that brings pressure in a variety of different ways, will force mistakes and should be good enough offensively to turn those mistakes into seven points, not three, more times than not.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.com. Odds provided by Odds Shark.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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