Miami vs. Virginia Tech: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Both the Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies will attempt to rebound from disappointing losses when they meet for a pivotal Thursday night showdown in Blacksburg, Virginia.
Miami has dropped two straight games, including a gut-wrenching loss to rival Florida State and a dismal offensive performance against ACC Coastal Division foe North Carolina. Now, Mark Richt and the 'Canes hit the road at 4-2 in a must-win situation.
Virginia Tech had a chance to take control of the Coastal after smashing UNC, but Syracuse handed the Hokies their first conference loss of the season. Justin Fuente's team is also 4-2.
Per Odds Shark, Virginia Tech opened as a 4.5-point favorite. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, and ESPN will broadcast the tilt.
Miami Keys to Victory
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Early-Down, Third-Down Success
During the opening half against Florida State, Brad Kaaya and Co. picked up three long third downs. But that's not a sustainable way to move the ball. In the final 30 minutes, Miami faced an average third-down distance of 11.8 yards and converted none.
Then, throughout the loss to North Carolina, the 'Canes moved the chains on just four of their 15 third-down tries despite needing just 4.7 yards per attempt.
Setting up third-and-short is imperative—especially on the road—but that's simply half of the battle. Miami needs to keep drives alive after setting up a favorable distance.
Don't Allow the Explosive Play
North Carolina had a 30-plus-yard gain on three drives, which resulted in 17 points. On the Tar Heels' nine other possessions, they managed a single field goal.
But the Hokies offense—while formidable—isn't a big-play threat like North Carolina's. Through six games, it ranks 85th in 20-plus-yard snaps and 87th in 30-plus, per cfbstats.com.
Allowing Virginia Tech to break off big chunks of yardage would provide an irregular benefit to Fuente's team.
Virginia Tech Keys to Victory
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Turn Red-Zone Chances into Touchdowns
Seven points are better than three. Thanks, Captain Obvious. But against Miami's defense, that's easier said than done.
While the 'Canes have typically allowed points on drives where they surrender a big play, it's not always a touchdown. Their opponents have reached the end zone on just 42.9 percent of red-zone opportunities, which is ninth best in the country.
Virginia Tech ranks 75th nationally with an even 60 percent touchdown rate. Field goals might not cut it Thursday night.
Make Brad Kaaya Win
Despite the potential of being a first-round NFL draft pick, Kaaya has rarely provided the clutch moment for Miami. He's never led a go-ahead, game-winning touchdown drive.
Part of that is on Kaaya. Part of that is on his supporting cast—whether coaching (halfback pass that was intercepted against Washington State), special teams (a blocked extra point against Florida State) or offensive line (blind-side sack-fumble against North Carolina).
If Virginia Tech can put Miami in a situation where the offense needs a score to win, history favors the Hokies.
Miami Players to Watch
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Mark Walton, Running Back
Though the Hurricanes boast a terrific one-two punch at running back with Mark Walton and Joe Yearby, the former will probably handle the most touches.
And Walton will be trying to forget a frustrating stretch. After amassing 401 yards and seven touchdowns in the first three games, he's mustered just 165 yards and one score during the last three outings.
Plus, Miami lacks pass-catching options behind Stacy Coley, Ahmmon Richards and David Njoku. Walton—and Yearby, for that matter—will see several targets out of the backfield.
Corn Elder, Cornerback
The leader of the nation's No. 25 defense, Corn Elder is a name to remember when the 2017 NFL draft rolls around. He should play a pivotal role on Thursday, too.
Elder has collected 35 tackles, which ranks second on the team this season. He also leads the defense with five pass breakups, adding 3.5 tackles for loss, two sacks and one interception.
Few cornerbacks in the country have a better tackling form than Elder, who displays excellent awareness in coverage.
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Virginia Tech Players to Watch
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Jerod Evans, Quarterback
Fuente's scheme is intended to limit mistakes, and Jerod Evans has followed the plan quite well. The junior owns a 62.7 completion percentage, throwing 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Evans has also picked up 319 rushing yards and two scores. Dual-threat quarterbacks have given past Miami defenses problems, and Manny Diaz's aggressive philosophy might open scrambling lanes for Evans to show off his running ability.
After losing to Tennessee, Evans responded with a five-touchdown day. What does he have in store for Diaz's unit?
Woody Baron, Defensive Tackle
The Hurricanes have a simple trend of wins and losses: They averaged at least four yards per carry in each of their four victories but didn't reach the mark during two shortcomings.
If Virginia Tech can consistently earn the upper hand inside, it has a terrific chance to control the game. That starts with Woody Baron.
After spending most of the last three seasons as a reserve, Baron has started all six contests in 2016. He's posted 19 tackles, including five for loss and 1.5 sacks.
What They're Saying
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Miami
Not only is depth a problem for Miami's offensive line, but also the depth of starting-caliber talent is low. Despite the struggles, Richt doesn't expect to make any changes because of those issues, according to Linda Robertson of the Miami Herald.
"We don't have enough depth to be playing musical chairs; I think we've got the best five. A lot of times we did block well. In every game in America the quarterback is going to get hit. Every time there's a sack you can't say, 'Oh, my gosh, these guys aren't doing a good job.'"
Virginia Tech
Like the Hurricanes, the Hokies will attempt to block out a Week 7 loss in preparation for an important ACC clash. Per the Charlottesville Newsplex, Fuente emphasized protecting home field.
"It's the same message I would have had if we won. We've got to turn the page. We have five days to find a way to win a ball game at home. We have a very talented Miami team coming to our house. We've got to get ready to play."
Prediction
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Despite a pair of new coaches, the 2016 matchup feels awfully similar to recent seasons. The winner will stay alive in the Coastal race, while the loser basically can start deciding which mid-December bowl game is the most appealing.
But for the first time in three weeks, Miami will have a balanced offense that complements a stingy defense. The Hurricanes will consistently limit Virginia Tech to field goals early and build a two-possession lead heading into the fourth quarter.
Evans and Co. won't go quietly, closing the gap before Elder and Miami's defense manages one final stop to seal the win.
The 'Canes save their division championship dreams for another week and improve to 5-2, while Virginia Tech falls to 4-3 and remain equally not-quite-dead in the Coastal.
Prediction: Miami 27, Virginia Tech 23
All recruiting information via Scout. Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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