United States Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Austin Race
The 18th round of the 2016 Formula One season will take place at this weekend's United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas, where Lewis Hamilton needs to get back to basics.
The three-time world champion embarrassed himself at the recent Japanese GP, behaving like a naughty boy at the back of a classroom in a pre-race press conference and then refusing to speak to the media before his title hopes suffered another serious blow.
But having had a week to reflect on his behaviour at Suzuka—and, perhaps more importantly, to fully digest the disappointment of his engine failure in Malaysia—Hamilton should be back to his best in Austin, Texas, as he attempts to overturn Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg's 33-point lead.
With a look at a strong performance for Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo, Haas' first F1 appearance on home soil and another blow to Kevin Magnussen's hopes of earning a new Renault contract, here are five predictions for the United States GP.
Lewis Hamilton Will Win from Pole Position to Get Title Challenge Back on Track
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Provided he puts down his phone and is persuaded to be as polite and civil as possible, Hamilton's war against the media may actually help his pursuit of this year's world championship.
He got the balance all wrong in Japan, picking every fight except the one on track, but his policy of keeping quiet—provided Mercedes' PR machine doesn't talk him out of it before Austin, of course—could prove to be a masterstroke.
With no dictaphones lurking nearby and luring him into saying something he'll soon regret, Hamilton will be free to focus on the things that really matter to a racing driver.
The car, the setup, the balance, the braking, the rhythm, the track—the start.
And when the job is done, Lewis can be left to be Lewis, escaping through the back door, reuniting with Snapchat and going along to the Taylor Swift concert, which seems set to be a bigger attraction than the racing at the United States GP. Each to their own, we suppose.
With victories in three of the previous four races in Austin, Hamilton is the most successful driver in the short history of the Circuit of the Americas, but he has yet to secure a pole position at the track.
That will change this time, when he will enjoy the weekend he should have had in Malaysia.
His pole advantage over Rosberg will—as at Monza and Sepang—be around the half-a-second mark, his start will be good enough to keep that lead at the first corner and the rest of his race will be relatively seamless compared to recent weeks.
At the place where he celebrated his third title triumph with so much energy a year ago, F1's international man of mystery will get his quest for a fourth back on track.
Nico Rosberg Will Recover to 3rd After a Poor Start from 2nd on the Grid
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Four second places. That's it, that's all he needs now.
After claiming his ninth victory of 2016 in Japan, the hard work is done for Rosberg, who can afford to finish second in each of the remaining races and still become the champion of the world.
All he needs to do is settle in Hamilton's slipstream and simply follow his team-mate around for the final 253 laps of the year, keeping the pesky Red Bulls and Ferraris at a safe distance.
But such is the nature of this season—when 43- and 19-point leads have disappeared almost overnight for both title protagonists—that it won't be quite as simple as that, and there is surely at least one more swing of the pendulum to come.
Of the remaining grands prix, the United States race is the most hazardous for Rosberg, who despite claiming pole for the last two races at the Circuit of the Americas has been forced to settle for second after making serious errors at crucial moments.
With the pressure of the title fight taking its toll, Rosberg lost the lead of the 2014 race by engaging an incorrect engine setting when defending from Hamilton, while the infamous gust of wind blew him off the track when the win was in touching distance last year.
As in Austria, pole position is arguably on the wrong side of the grid at Austin, with the driver starting second positioned on the inside of the steep, uphill run towards the slow, hidden hairpin of Turn 1 where a variety of lines can be used.
When the title protagonists line up on the grid, the watching world will be waiting for the No. 44 car to make yet another lacklustre launch, only for the other Mercedes to suffer a sloppy start and be swarmed by those behind.
With the help of James Vowles, the team's increasingly impressive strategist, Rosberg will limit the damage by eventually recovering to third, which has become the limit for a Mercedes driver recovering from a poor opening lap.
But this scare will leave Rosberg with no option but to go and grab the world championship, rather than waiting for it to come to him.
Daniel Ricciardo Will Pull off the Overtake of the Season on Sebastian Vettel
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Ricciardo has always embraced the United States GP and all that comes with it.
"The track in Austin is sick, I love it," he recently told the official F1 website. "Austin city is also awesome, I really like its character. It’s raw and authentic which makes it cool without trying to be."
Although the "really nice vibe" at Pete's Piano bar and the surrounding "super cool" venues play a role in his enjoyment of the event, the main reason behind his love of Austin is its habit of bringing out the best in Ricciardo, who has excelled there since his arrival at Red Bull.
After stealing a podium from Williams in the 2014 event—the day he outsmarted and outwitted Fernando Alonso—Ricciardo could, and should, have won last year's race had the track not dried and exposed the true pace disadvantage of the RB11, dropping him from the lead to 10th at the chequered flag.
And now—with a car that, no matter what Ferrari say, stands alone as the second-fastest on the grid—he should enter this weekend as the driver most likely to upset Mercedes.
Ricciardo will come third to Hamilton and Rosberg in qualifying, but excess wheelspin off the line will see him drop a place to Sebastian Vettel at the first corner.
The uphill nature of Turn 1 lends itself to the same late-braking lunges Ricciardo has utilised at Hungary's first corner in recent years, and as he tracks his former team-mate in the opening laps, he will sense the moment to pounce.
With the crowd gathered at the summit of the hill and the unmistakable aura of burgers and hot dogs wafting into his crash helmet, Ricciardo will come from a long way back to beat Vettel to the apex, making slight contact as he barges his way through into second.
The forceful move will once again leave Vettel whining over the team radio, yet his complaints will do nothing to disguise the fact he's "been done" by a Daniel special.
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Romain Grosjean, Esteban Gutierrez Will Retire from Haas' Home Race
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The United States GP weekend will offer a firm indication of how the American public have warmed to the Haas team flying their flag.
Will the grandstands be dotted with grey, white and red caps? Or will Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari still rule the roost in terms of spectator support?
There was much to admire about Haas in the early weeks of this season, when Romain Grosjean's two top-six finishes in Australia and Bahrain had them harping on about "the American dream."
But as the year has progressed and the points finishes have evaporated—they have scored in just two of the last 15 races—the newcomers have looked exactly that: amateur, error-prone, unprofessional.
Sure, the VF-16 car—this Ferrari-Dallara hybrid—is still quick on occasion, and after Grosjean and Esteban Gutierrez both reached Q3 for the first time in Japan, team principal Guenther Steiner argued the team had made a genuine step forward, per Motorsport.com's Valentin Khorounzhiy and Jonathan Noble.
Yet those comments felt like the words of a man attempting to generate some excitement ahead of his team's home race, and we fear normal service will be resumed this weekend, where Haas will suffer a second double retirement in three races.
Having been involved in first-corner incidents in Russia and Azerbaijan, Gutierrez will drive into someone else's accident at Turn 1, while Grosjean—having recently admitted he is trying to stop criticising the team over pit-to-car radio, per Motorsport.com's Adam Cooper—will be unable to bite his tongue any longer.
As usual, the Frenchman will complain about the car, the handling and the brakes throughout practice and qualifying before a painfully slow pit stop—directly in front of the home supporters in the main grandstand—leaves him stranded at the rear of the field.
With nothing to play for, the pit wall will eventually grant Grosjean's requests to pull out of the race, confirming the American dream has become a nightmare.
Kevin Magnussen Will Be Penalised for Blocking Nico Hulkenberg in Qualifying
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So have Renault signed Nico Hulkenberg to partner Magnussen in 2017? Or to replace him?
Well, you only need to read the comments emerging from the team in recent days to know the answer.
Since his signing was confirmed, Renault have praised Hulkenberg's spirit and attitude as much as his on-track ability, with chairman Jerome Stoll telling the team's official website how the German—a "dedicated and motivated" driver—"will enable [them] to harness all the hard work completed" in 2016.
Then there were the comments from team principal Frederic Vasseur, who described Hulkenberg as conscientious, a leader who can "motivate a team and take the troops with him," per Autosport (h/t Eurosport).
And then, most tellingly of all, came Vasseur's revelation to French publication L'Equipe (h/t F1i.com's Julien Billiotte) that Renault are hoping to sign not one but "two team leaders" for next season.
Renault's large emphasis on leadership, determination and motivational skills is an ominous sign for Magnussen, who—according to a print edition of F1 Racing magazine—has frustrated the team with a "perceived lackadaisical attitude" in 2016.
Although the underpowered, undeveloped R.S.16 car has made Magnussen weaponless in terms of results, that casual, half-hearted approach has been noticeable in his scruffy driving throughout this season, with the Dane often making a nuisance of himself and irritating other drivers on track.
And it would sum up his season if Magnussen were to block the man who is almost certain to inherit his seat.
One of the few drivers yet to be held up by a Renault in 2016, Hulkenberg will encounter Magnussen in the second segment of qualifying—be it in the fast esses section in the first sector or the slower, technical complex towards the end of the lap—and the No. 20 car will make itself as difficult as ever to pass.
As a result, Hulkenberg will miss out on a place in Q3 and the subsequent complaints made by Force India—nervously nursing a 10-point lead over Williams in the fight for fourth in the championship—will see Magnussen handed a five-place grid penalty.
In a week Renault have been smitten with their new signing, Magnussen's failure to learn from his same old mistakes will push him ever closer to the exit door.
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