Ohio State vs Penn State: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Ohio State passed the first of two Big Ten road tests when it invaded Madison, Wisconsin, and came away with a 30-23 victory over the eighth-ranked Badgers. But Urban Meyer's squad will face another stiff challenge this Saturday when it travels to Happy Valley for a showdown against a surging Penn State team.
The No. 2 Buckeyes (6-0) enter the matchup as big favorites, but they'll need a quick turnaround to face the well-rested Nittany Lions (4-2), who are coming off a well-timed bye week.
Will Ohio State flex its muscle and reassert itself as the class of the Big Ten and a major College Football Playoff contender, or can Penn State pull off the upset of the year?
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Place: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania
TV: ABC
Spread: Ohio State (-20), per Odds Shark
Ohio State Keys to Victory
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Air It Out
Every aspect of Ohio State's football team is clicking at a high level except one: its passing offense.
The Buckeyes are near the top of the national standings in almost every major statistical category. They rank fourth in both scoring offense and rushing and 12th in total offense, while the defense ranks third in scoring, sixth in passing yards allowed, 20th in rushing yards allowed and sixth in total yards surrendered.
But J.T. Barrett and a deep stable of wide receivers are posting pedestrian numbers relative to their skill sets, ranking a lowly 83rd nationally with 216 passing yards per game.
And while the aerial attack slumped in the last two weeks against Indiana and Wisconsin, Barrett seemed to find a rhythm in the second half and overtime against the Badgers' elite defense, connecting on 11 of 15 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown (h/t Tony Gerdeman of The Ozone).
Penn State has one of the best secondaries in college football—it ranks 13th in the country in pass defense—so we'll find out quickly whether Barrett has turned a corner.
Get Off to a Fast Start
Ohio State almost buried itself in a hole that it couldn't climb out of last week against Wisconsin.
The Buckeyes were forced to punt on their first offensive possession, and the defense gave up points on the Badgers' first two possessions to fall into a 10-0 deficit. That gave Wisconsin and the hostile environment all the life it needed to give Ohio State fits for all four quarters and then some.
Ohio State will face an equally raucous crowd this weekend when it takes the field in Beaver Stadium. The game has been tabbed as Penn State's famous "White Out" game, which makes an already tough environment even more difficult to overcome.
Meyer and the Buckeyes would be smart to get off to a faster start this week in an effort to take some life out of the home crowd.
Penn State Keys to Victory
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Continue the Offensive Line Surge
When the NCAA sanctioned Penn State with a scholarship restriction, the team's overall depth took a massive hit. But no unit was hit harder than the offensive line, which has been a weak spot for the Nittany Lions over the last five years.
That weakness seems to be fading, though, as it paved the way to a 38-14 pounding over Maryland. Running back Saquon Barkley averaged 6.5 yards per carry and ran for 202 yards, and the team piled up 372 rushing yards against an improved Terrapins defense.
"That's all credit to the O-line," Barkley said after the game, according to Vincent Lungaro of the Daily Collegian. "The O-line did an unbelievable job today. They played with passion, they played tough and physical."
The Nittany Lions can't afford a regression against an Ohio State defense that ranks 20th against the run.
Load the Box
On the other side of the ball, Penn State has to load up to stop the run and force J.T. Barrett to beat it through the air.
The Buckeyes have one of the most well-rounded rushing attacks in the country with running back Mike Weber (a bulldozing ball-carrier who pounds for tough yards), H-back Curtis Samuel (who brings elite speed to the backfield) and Barrett (a relentless threat in both passing and running situations).
The Nittany Lions secondary has proved that it's strong enough to hold its own, so defensive coordinator Brent Pry should send waves of linebackers and the occasional safety at Ohio State's offensive line to slow down the strength of its offense.
Ohio State Players to Watch
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The Ball-Carriers
Ohio State is trying to strike the right balance between passing and running, but it also needs to work on the balance and distribution of carries between its top ball-carriers.
Over the last two games, J.T. Barrett has carried the ball a team-high 47 times. That's as many carries as the team's leading rushers—running back Mike Weber and H-back Curtis Samuel—have combined for during the same stretch.
Barrett is an incredibly tough quarterback, but he's been prone to injures during his football career. He tore his ACL during his senior season in high school, and his redshirt freshman season in 2014 was derailed when he broke his ankle running a zone-read play against Michigan.
The workload Barrett has undertaken the last two weeks isn't sustainable, and Ohio State shouldn't want him to run the ball that much anyway. Weber and Samuel have proved capable with the ball in their hands, so Urban Meyer and the offensive staff need to highlight them more consistently.
Nick Bosa
Nick Bosa is turning into an absolute force for Ohio State's defensive line.
The young freshman registered a sack in a big spot last week against Wisconsin, bringing his total number to three through six games, which ranks second on the team. The coaching staff is giving Bosa more playing time as he continues to surge, and he's showing a lot of poise and power against the best the Big Ten has to offer.
His play has been so good, in fact, that he has the attention of Penn State head coach James Franklin.
"I can't believe I'm saying this again, but they've got another Bosa," Franklin said, according to D.J. Byrnes of Eleven Warriors.
The last time Ohio State played in Beaver Stadium, Bosa's older brother, Joey, registered a game-sealing sack of Christian Hackenberg in double overtime. Two years later, Nick Bosa is hoping to have a similar impact.
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Penn State Players to Watch
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Trace McSorley
Trace McSorley is going to have to play the game of his life for Penn State to beat Ohio State.
The Badgers showed last week that a good defensive plan and a strong running game aren't enough to beat the Buckeyes. Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook had his moments last Saturday, but crucial mistakes in the second half—including a bad interception and another throw that should've stood as an interception late in the fourth quarter—helped Ohio State get back into the game and force overtime.
McSorley has improved this season and is coming off a pair of impressive performances in which he averaged 243.5 passing yards, 77 rushing yards and a total of five touchdowns. But he only completed 48.3 percent of his passes during that stretch. He'll need to be much more precise against one of the best secondaries in the country.
Marcus Allen
The Nittany Lions have been hit with some devastating injuries to their linebacker corps this season, but safety Marcus Allen has picked up the slack in a big way.
The 6'2", 202-pound defensive back plays much bigger than his size but still manages to maintain the speed to keep pace with faster wideouts. That gives the Penn State defense incredible flexibility, and it's one of the main reasons the team ranks so high in pass defense.
But Allen isn't hesitant to lower his head and lay the wood. That was evident when he piled up a career-high 22 tackles in Penn State's 29-26 win over Minnesota two weeks ago.
What They're Saying
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Urban Meyer has experienced a Penn State "White Out" game and wishes the Nittany Lions would use that promotion on a different team, according to Eric Seger of Eleven Warriors.
"I wish they'd save the White Outs for the other games but they use it for our games," Meyer said on Monday.
Buckeyes linebacker Chris Worley, however, is excited for the hostile environment.
"I actually love going on the road," Worley said when asked about visiting Penn State, per Marcus Hartman of the Dayton Daily News. "Their whole crowd is against you. You're not just feeling [the fans], but you're feeling the whole arena."
Meyer had high praise for Saquon Barkley, saying the Penn State running back will be a first-round NFL draft pick one day, per Tim Shoemaker of Eleven Warriors.
"The kingpin of that whole offense is that tailback," Meyer said, per Seger. "I think he’s a phenomenal player."
Prediction
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The Buckeyes will prove themselves as road warriors once again, but this weekend's game won't be as close as their outing against the Badgers.
Mike Weber will lead the charge for a rushing attack that will pile up 275 yards against the Nittany Lions. Weber will eclipse 100 yards in the third quarter before finishing with 135 and two scores. J.T. Barrett and Curtis Samuel will each chip in 50 yards and another score.
Saquon Barkley and the Penn State offense will have success in the first half, running for 85 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries. But those lanes will close in the second half as the Buckeyes defense tightens its grip.
Barrett and the Ohio State offense will score 21 straight points in the second half before a garbage-time Nittany Lions touchdown makes the score a bit more respectable.
Ohio State 38, Penn State 20
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