NBA Players Most Likely to Be Trade Targets During 2016-17 Season
For all the excitement the NBA's trade rumor mill generates, it's just a treadmill that recycles (mostly) the same names until February's deadline.
Sure, new names reach the chopping block every so often, and players we never knew were available get dealt all the time.
But the NBA is the most predictable professional sports league around, even down to its most sought-after trade candidates. Even now, with the speculation factory riding its preseason lull, we can single out those the league's buyers will be targeting most throughout the 2016-17 season.
These players are not necessarily linked to any trade chatter at the moment, and their inclusion has almost nothing to do with the needs of the most aggressive suitors.
They are part of severe logjams, contract-year flight risks, regular trade fodder or playing for teams that profile as eventual sellers.
Honorable Mentions
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Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
Owed around $38.8 million over the next three years, Kenneth Faried will be easy to move under the new salary cap. The Denver Nuggets, however, have been unable to "froth up a market" for him, according to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe.
Simply dumping Faried for a minimal return is still in play. Denver has an abundance of frontcourt talent, and dealing him opens up minutes at the 4 for Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari. If and when the Nuggets lower their asking price, interest in Faried's double-double potential will skyrocket.
Kosta Koufos, Sacramento Kings
Expecting to see someone else here? Maybe a certain fiery big man who has ambled in and out of the rumor mill for years?
The DeMarcus Cousins trade bugaboo isn't going away—not with his 2018 free agency around the corner. But his departure is more likely to be hammered out over the offseason, when the Sacramento Kings have more leverage away from an approaching trade deadline.
Kosta Koufos might become a hotter commodity in the meantime. Sacramento has almost as many bigs as the Philadelphia 76ers, and Koufos is a solid rim protector who won't break the bank with the three years and approximately $25.2 million remaining on his deal.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
Bigs earning max(ish) money who can't chuck threes or anchor an above-average defense aren't in demand. Greg Monroe (spoiler alert) wouldn't still be a member of the Milwaukee Bucks if they were.
Brook Lopez blocks more shots and has slowly, albeit barely, worked the three-point shot into his offensive arsenal, making him a more attractive asset. The Nets don't control their own first-round pick until 2019 and have already shown they'll swap out proven talent for draft selections with the Thaddeus Young trade. There's no way Lopez is off-limits.
Though the $43.8 million he's owed through the next two seasons is a sticking point, he won't be among the 30 highest paid players by 2017-18. Plenty of suitors will come out of the woodwork if the Nets decide a mid-end first-rounder and financial place holders hold more long-term value.
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks
Sources told Lowe that the Bucks are still open to moving Monroe "in the right deal." That trade doesn't exist—not for Milwaukee anyway.
Monroe has a $17.9 million player option for 2017-18, and it's not clear whether he's more appealing as a rental or as someone who plans on finishing out his deal. Either way, the Bucks' best chance at making him a high-value target lies with lowering their asking price while also getting Monroe to clarify his intentions for next summer.
Goran Dragic, Miami Heat
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The idea that Goran Dragic's name will wind up in trade talks barely one season into his five-year, $90 million deal is not as ridiculous as it might sound. As Lowe relayed:
"The [Miami] Heat and Kings have had some vague trade talks since July -- not necessarily involving Dragic, sources say -- and given the Kings' shaky point guard situation, it's tempting to build deals sending Dragic to Sacramento. A half-dozen other teams are searching for a long-term answer at point guard.
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Miami's impromptu rebuild is at the heart of this issue: Chris Bosh's Heat career is over. Dwyane Wade is on the Chicago Bulls. Luol Deng is a member of the Los Angeles Lakers.
This is not the championship-chaser Dragic signed up to play for, and he admitted as much to NBA.com's David Aldridge.
Team president Pat Riley, at 71, won't shelve title hopes that easily, and this season could be a one-year rest stop on the road to better days. The Heat will have plenty of cap space next summer if an independent doctor eventually rules that Bosh's blood-clot situation is career-ending, per Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today. Riley has staged offseason coups before and won't have trouble pitching free agents on a future with Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, Hassan Whiteside and Dragic.
But this plan—if it even qualifies as one—rests on too many long shots. Miami cannot be sure Bosh's salary will be wiped off the ledger for good, and poaching marquee free agents won't be easy when half the league has cap space. Committing to a rebuild will be the more sensible route if the Heat fall out of playoff contention early or have any doubts about their ability to woo outside talent.
Dragic, 30, won't fit into that timeline, rendering him expendable.
This is not to be confused with cheap. Riley forfeited two first-round picks to get Dragic and must recoup some or all of that value. But while a steep asking price will scare off certain teams, Dragic's pre-2016 contract and experience running uptempo offenses are enough to keep the phones ringing.
Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets
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Gallinari was by far the Nuggets' best offensive player last season. He parlayed a career-high usage rate into a personal-best 19.5 points per game; posted an assist rate above 10 for the third time in four seasons; shot at an above-average clip from downtown (36.4 percent); and averaged more free throws per 36 minutes (8.5) than DeMar DeRozan (8.4).
He's also, as far as Denver's rebuild is concerned, dispensable.
That won't be as true if the Nuggets offload Faried—Gallinari would slide to the 4 full-time, while Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic split a time share at the 5.
Even then, Denver would have a bunch of rangy wings on the roster: small-ball 4 candidates Wilson Chandler (6'8") and Juancho Hernangomez (6'9"), along with Will Barton and Malik Beasley, each of whom should see time at the 3.
Gallinari is better than the lot of them (for now), and with the exception of Jokic, he's the closest the Nuggets get to an incumbent star. But he is 28, has an extensive injury history and holds a player option for 2017-18 that he'll likely decline given the salary-cap trajectory—leaving him on the verge of becoming too old and too expensive to co-headline a rebuild.
Denver should at the least find itself fielding calls on Gallinari's availability. Potential rentals seldom fetch a king's ransom, but you never know which contenders might be willing to overpay for a midseason acquisition they believe pushes them over the hump.
Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings
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Rudy Gay has already informed Sacramento that he will opt out of his contract after this season to leave as a free agent, according to The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears. Kings general manager Vlade Divac didn't seem in any rush to trade him when speaking with SiriusXM NBA Radio (h/t HoopsHype), but his nonchalance has an expiration date.
Sacramento will invariably fall out of the Western Conference playoff race, at which point there won't be a reason to keep Gay around. New arrivals Malachi Richardson and Garrett Temple deserve spin at the 3, and there won't be a ton of minutes to go around at the 4 with eight trillion bigs on the roster.
Gay instantly becomes a draw for buyers and injury-ravaged units (Bucks!) if the Kings transition into sellers. He can spend time at either forward spot, has shot close to or above the league average from three in each of the last two seasons and is a low-risk investment with free agency on the horizon.
The challenge here is piecing together a package that satisfies both sides of any trade.
Interested admirers won't relinquish assets of value for a monthslong rental who is on the wrong side of 30 and doesn't move the defensive needle. Sacramento won't have any real use for Gay once its postseason hopes are dashed but can easily settle for his contract coming off the books next July in the absence of the right deal.
Hence, we must expect Gay's future to remain in flux right up until the trade deadline. Both the Kings and their callers need ample time to play bargaining-table chicken.
Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns
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In somewhat of a stunning twist, the Phoenix Suns are making Brandon Knight their sixth man rather than starting him beside Eric Bledsoe as part of a point guard-only backcourt.
Let the bidding begin.
To be fair, this move doesn't forewarn an auction, nor is it unjustified. Devin Booker showed enough moxie as a 19-year-old rookie to warrant the starting nod, and Phoenix still scored like a bottom-five offense in the 808 minutes Bledsoe and Knight shared the floor last season.
There aren't as many stigmas associated with coming off the bench anymore, either. Knight will log starter-level minutes, and his job becomes exponentially easier on both ends when squaring off against more second-stringers.
And yet, his role is still being painted as a demotion.
"He's a starter in this league," Suns head coach Earl Watson said, per AZCentral.com's Paul Coro. "He's sacrificed the most for this team. He took it like the pro he is."
For how much longer, though? Knight has started more than 96 percent of the games in which he's appeared; this is going to be an adjustment for him. Maybe a contender could sell a 24-year-old point guard entering his prime on a sixth-man role, but Phoenix will be lucky to win 25 games.
Besides, paying more than $25 million annually for Bledsoe and Knight combined is a steep investment—especially when they have one season as the majority starter for a top-10 offense between them (Bledsoe, 2013-14). The Suns don't have any proven long-term solutions outside the backcourt, so splitting up this duo was always a possibility.
Knight's move to the bench merely gives prospective suitors a single name to focus on.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
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There are zero signs the Atlanta Hawks are willing to move Paul Millsap this side of Al Horford's departure to the Boston Celtics.
The team informed the three-time All-Star back in August it wouldn't be trading him, according to Basketball Insider's Steve Kyler. A source within the organization also told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Chris Vivlamore that re-signing Millsap will be a priority if he opts out of his contract next summer.
That won't stop rival general managers from blowing up the Hawks' phones if their 2016-17 season goes anywhere near sideways.
Dwight Howard could thrive in his latest digs, Dennis Schroder could erase Jeff Teague from Atlanta's memory, the Hawks could be positioned for a 10th straight playoff berth, and there would still be enough uncertainty on hand for them to entertain offers.
Chalk it up to a ballooning salary cap, Millsap's turning 32 in February and the prospect of giving him a four-year deal that could approach $150 million as causes for pause.
Atlanta, remember, shopped Horford ahead of his free agency. Millsap shouldn't be any different.
The Hawks did not stave off a reset just because they signed Howard. They already dealt Teague to the Indiana Pacers in favor of a 23-year-old Schroder, and their buffet of expiring contracts—Kris Humphries, Kyle Korver, Mike Scott, Thabo Sefolosha, Tiago Splitter, Millsap (player option)—doesn't tie them to any one direction.
Another Eastern Conference team that's closer to unseating the Cleveland Cavaliers wouldn't have to think as hard about Millsap's upcoming payday. Atlanta doesn't have that luxury following a 48-win season, and that creates a window of opportunity for risk-takers in need of a superstar punch (Toronto Raptors, please and thanks).
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
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Nerlens Noel's situation with the Sixers is the opposite of fine, per Tom Moore of Calkins Media (via HoopsHype):
"Noel’s oncourt body language hasn’t been good. Fellow centers Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor did an ESPN interview after Wednesday’s practice in which Noel wasn’t included. An NBA source said Noel 'was having groin pain during/after (his) pregame workout. Nothing more (to it).' Noel, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2014 draft, voiced his displeasure that the Sixers still had three young centers — also Embiid and Okafor — on media day Sept. 26.
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This frustration doesn't mean Noel wants out of Philly, just that he has no desire to be part of a crowded center rotation that marginalizes its members. But regardless of how he feels, he's the most tempting asset of the three.
Embiid is a third-year rookie whose blend of upside and injury risk makes him impossible to appraise. And Okafor is one of those seldom-sought towers who neither spaces the floor nor protects the paint.
Noel is more of a known commodity—a lengthy tower who can protect the rim and defend multiple positions. No NBA player has ever matched his per-game steal (1.8) and block (1.7) averages through rookie and sophomore seasons. And he will work as a high-end pick-and-roll diver on a team with shooters.
Trading for Noel is still complicated, though. The Sixers need to move a big, but they've held out thus far. So Philly doesn't want someone to pick him up for spare parts. At the same time, the team doesn't have much leverage: Noel will be a restricted free agent next summer and won't have issues finding a lucrative four-year offer sheet. The longer the Sixers wait, the more likely they are to lose him for nothing or shell out a contract they have no business funding.
Buyers who fancy Noel as more than a one-season lease should be able to find some middle ground. The right to match any offer he receives makes giving up picks or prospects easier, and Philly will only be under more pressure to strike a deal as the season progresses.
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Forget about foreboding, if oddly timed, offseason comments and the Minnesota Timberwolves' selection of point guard Kris Dunn with the fifth overall pick in the 2016 NBA draft; Ricky Rubio has played his way into this slideshow.
Any half-decent starting point guard who is owed less than $43 million over the next three years will drum up trade interest in this new cap climate. But despite injuries, a cruddy jumper and a lack of team success, Rubio has quietly become one of the NBA's best bargains.
The Timberwolves played like a postseason team whenever he was on the floor last season. Their offense scored with top-six efficiency, and they outpaced opponents by 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Kevin Garnett was Minnesota's only player to notch a better net rating, and he totaled nearly 1,800 fewer minutes than Rubio.
There were even some (faintly) bright spots for Rubio's jumper.
He has yet to shoot 40 percent from the field for an entire season, but he put down a semi-reasonable 32.6 percent of his triples while launching them with career-high volume. And 2015-16 marked the second consecutive season he converted more than 38 percent of his attempts between 16 feet and the three-point line.
Tack on Rubio's ridiculously friendly price point and the knowledge that his eventual successor, Dunn, is already on the payroll, and trade inquiries will become a weekly occurrence. And that's if the Timberwolves are good.
If they stumble out of the gate, tracking toward another lottery-bound rebuilding year, these calls will come in daily droves.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
