2016 NBA Preseason Performances That Actually Matter So Far
You have to promise not to tell anyone, but not all aspects of the NBA preseason are pointless.
We're gonna rain on the parades of the "I don't care; it's only preseason" skeptics, pessimists and general killjoys. Even though, true to exhibition legend, it's never a good idea to take all games that don't count toward actual standings at face value, some performances are unsustainable.
The Houston Rockets won't finish the regular season with a better record than the Golden State Warriors, Karl-Anthony Towns will not shoot under 38 percent from the floor and Devin Booker, believe it or not, won't contend for the scoring title.
But other preseason efforts are more accurate previews of how a player or team will fare. We can spot a young prospect on the rise or a budding star ready to affirm his value. We can see genuine differences in how certain teams play and where they will struggle.
Grit, Grind and Shoot More 3s
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New Memphis Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale is serious about the team's primary bigs, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, shooting three-pointers. As he previously told Michael Wallace, then of ESPN.com:
"In my first conversation with Marc, I said, "Well, you know I'm going to start taking you out if you don't get up at least four 3-pointers a game." And I think he about fell out of his chair when I said it. I wouldn't have a job right now as a head coach if Chris Bosh couldn't shoot 3s. And he developed that in Miami.
I plan to do the same thing with Marc, and he's already working on it like crazy.
"
Indeed, Gasol has attempted more triples during his first three preseason games (five) than he did through 52 regular-season appearances in 2015-16 (three). Randolph, meanwhile, drilled four treys during an exhibition win over the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Grizzlies' towers aren't alone, either; the team is incorporating more threes as a whole. Memphis is averaging close to 26 outside attempts per preseason contest, a far cry from the league-low 18.3 it hoisted last October.
Preseason play styles, of course, aren't end-all harbingers. The Grizzlies will eventually regress to a lesser mean. They aren't blessed with a ton of shooters at any one position, and their sub-30 percent clip from long range is hardly a call for greater volume.
Still, the offense is changing—not in pace or usage structure, but most certainly in scheme. Jumpers in general, including long twos, appear to be deliberately on the rise. Expect this perimeter uptick to continue through the regular season as Memphis seeks to modernize and weaponize its system.
Identity Pains in OKC
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How in the heck are the Oklahoma City Thunder going to score, play or function on the most fundamental level when Russell Westbrook isn't on the floor?
That's the Kevin Durant-sized question clinging to this team like a wet blanket, and there aren't any immediate answers.
To be fair, injuries haven't helped the Thunder's cause. Steven Adams' (ankle) and Andre Roberson's (knee) absences have forced would-be second-unit contributors into the preseason starting five, and Oklahoma City needs Cameron Payne to return from a Jones fracture in his right foot before properly evaluating its bench mob.
Staggering minutes also becomes exponentially easier at full strength. Head coach Billy Donovan should be able to make it so the Thunder never play without two of Victor Oladipo, Payne and Westbrook on the floor once everyone's healthy—a luxury born from the likelihood that Oladipo and Westbrook routinely clear 35 minutes of court time apiece.
But that comes as minimal comfort knowing how irreplaceable Westbrook has become, even as he struggles to find the bottom of the net.
As Fred Katz explained for the Norman Transcript: "Westbrook can get to the rim within an offense whose biggest struggle is spacing. Even Oladipo, who fights downhill like few others, couldn’t always create room for himself at the iron."
Any time spent without Westbrook's defense-proof drives, however brief, will be damning. Oklahoma City's second unit ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency last year, according to HoopsStats.com, and isn't any deeper now.
Enes Kanter scores in the tightest spaces, but how long can you survive with him as the go-to option? Can Payne reach the rim with half of Westbrook's ease upon return? Will Ersan Ilyasova and Kyle Singler provide enough floor spacing?
None of this nods to the Thunder's other task at hand: finding a general identity post-Durant. But while that problem will reach resolution so long as Westbrook remains healthy, the search for a sustainable bridge during the point guard's (short) rest periods figures to last most of the regular season.
Kristaps Porzingis and the Nonexistent Sophomore Slump
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Regression seemed like a distinct possibility for Kristaps Porzingis not too long ago.
Though he was unexpectedly effective to start his debut season, he spent most of the year as the third-best newbie behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Nikola Jokic despite finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting. By the time the All-Star break rolled around, Porzingis hit a wall. His efficiency plummeted, he was no longer a defensive plus and the "Oh me, oh my, is he even human?" moments dwindled in number:
| 17.7 | 42.6 | 34.9 | 9.8 | 2.5 | |
| 19.1 | 40.8 | 29.4 | 7.7 | 2.0 |
Rookie recessions are not uncommon, and Porzingis, having hailed from Europe, wasn't accustomed to making 72 appearances or logging close to 30 minutes per game.
Some of the glitz and glam from his initial performance nevertheless subsided—outside of New York, at least. Was his decline, though ostensibly innocent, cause for longer-term concern? Would he be able to thrive on the New York Knicks as they are now, reinvented with more offensive mouths to feed?
Such doubts feel funny after watching Porzingis' preseason detonation. He's averaging 22.7 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes, with a 55.9/46.2/100.0 shooting slash line.
Small-sample bias creeps in here, but Porzingis passes the eye test with flying colors. He remains a one-man blockade at the rim and is somehow more comfortable switching onto smaller ball-handlers. His shooting stroke is quicker and smoother. His handles are tight, effortless and uncanny for someone his size.
Yes, it's early—beyond early.
But Porzingis' preseason progression is less about penciling him in for the Hall of Fame and more about refreshing appreciation for a unicorn who's rapidly coming into his own.
Life in the Big Easy Is...Hard
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Another season, another chance for the New Orleans Pelicans to start anew, this time free from the injury bug and the inevitable lottery appearance it carries.
Or maybe not.
This year's Pelicans are shaping up to be a lot like last season's squad: fragile, body-barren and defensively challenged without the faintest hope of leaving an imprint on the postseason conversation. Tyreke Evans and Quincy Pondexter are recovering from knee surgeries and won't be back in the near future. Jrue Holiday is out indefinitely as he rightfully spends time with his wife, Laura, who must undergo surgery to remove a brain tumor.
These were known issues before New Orleans ever opened training camp. Since then, the list of obstacles has ballooned.
Anthony Davis could miss the start of the regular season "after suffering a Grade 2 right ankle sprain" in a preseason tilt against the Rockets, according to ESPN.com's Marc J. Spears and Justin Verrier. E'Twaun Moore, who the Pelicans signed to a four-year, $34 million deal over the summer, left that same game with a right heel injury.
And on top that, Terrence Jones, another free-agent addition, is still shelved with a right knee contusion, per the Times Picayune's John Reid.
Mix in a defense that's forfeiting more than 110 points per 100 possessions, and the Pelicans' fate becomes clear: All the preseason caveats in the world—including Omer Asik's inspired play—won't rescue them from another frustrating year.
D'Angelo Russell Hath Arrived
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Everything seems to be falling into place for D'Angelo Russell following, shall we say, an uneven rookie season.
There is no Kobe Bryant farewell tour trumping his development. Former Los Angeles Lakers head coach Byron Scott is no longer tethering him to usage anchors. Even the repercussions of Russell's bro-code mishap with Nick Young appear to be fading.
“He’s more talkative and he understands the game more now,” said Lou Williams, one of the teammates who may or may not have frozen out Russell following the Young fiasco, per the Orange County Register's Mark Medina. “Last year, he was more quiet because he was still trying to learn. Now that he’s had a season under his belt, he understands where he wants the basketball and how to run the offense.”
This respect—which extends to the coaching staff and other teammates, per Medina—is paramount. Head coach Luke Walton has given Russell the ultimate green light and creative license. No other Lakers player sniffs his preseason usage rate, and Jordan Clarkson is playing off him much more than last season.
Russell has mostly delivered on this increase of faith and freedom. He is averaging more than 17 points per game while shooting better than 45 percent from the floor, and his defensive effort has improved a great deal, even though he's still prone to risking position for easy steals.
None of this is meant to trivialize the long road ahead. Russell still looks to score too much and can be maddeningly inconsistent. He dropped 54 points on 20-of-34 shooting in two matchups with the Denver Nuggets and then went 6-of-21 from the floor, missing all nine of his three-pointers, with one assist in a loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Compared to last year, though, Russell's place with the Lakers is unrecognizable.
Where he was once an erratic outcast, he is now a more steadying and featured force primed for a sophomore breakout.
Hassan "The Heat Are My Team Now" Whiteside
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A four-year contract worth more than $98 million has not satiated Hassan Whiteside's appetite for statistical domination. Nor have the absences of Chris Bosh, Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade done anything to limit his box-score takeover.
Whiteside is averaging 19.3 points, 13.0 rebounds and 3.3 blocks while shooting 71.4 percent from the field. In under 24 minutes per game. There is not a single typo in those sentences.
Whiteside's production persists despite this being the least talented version of the Miami Heat for which he has played. This effectively, if a tad prematurely, puts to bed the issue of whether he can play at a star level without an excess of proven veterans around him.
The Heat, in fact, have responded to their impromptu overhaul by expanding Whiteside's offensive role. He has a higher usage rate than Goran Dragic, and head coach Erik Spoelstra's lineup combinations have been geared toward opening more space for his lanky skyscraper.
Flanked by four shooters at almost all times—insofar as Dion Waiters, Derrick Williams and Justise Winslow qualify as "shooters"—Whiteside is doing more than rolling toward the basket. He's slipping double-teams. Moving with the ball. Establishing position and possession in the post. Finishing around the basket through contact with the know-how of someone who won't be wholly dependent on others to create his open looks.
Growing pains await the Heat, Whiteside included, as they try existing in that gray area between rebuilding and competing for a playoff berth. As he continues to play off a shifting regime of ball-handlers, Whiteside won't torch opponents as freely during the regular season.
Then again, he might. He is more polished offensively and hasn't lost a step on defense. At minimum, it looks like he'll serve up an adequate encore to last season—which, given the circumstances in Miami, is a huge deal.
3-Point Liftoff in Houston
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There is no way an NBA team will chuck 40 three-pointers per game this season, right?
Right?
It's beyond unlikely; the Warriors are armed to the teeth with marksmen, but their best snipers won't be playing many fourth quarters. Besides, no team has ever averaged even 33 deep-ball looks per game. The idea that one will jack up 40 a night is plain silly.
And yet, the Rockets loom as potentially historical three-point aficionados. They are averaging more than 39 attempts from behind the rainbow and have two of the preseason's three most frequent outside gunners, Ryan Anderson and James Harden, on the roster.
Granted, we're working with a microscopic sample. And exhibition stats don't perfectly translate into the regular season.
Just last year, Houston went from hoisting 34.6 threes during preseason play to firing under 31 in games that mattered.
At the same time, Mike D'Antoni, known for his liberal incorporation of three-pointers, is the Rockets' head coach. Trevor Ariza, Anderson and Harden are combining for nearly 20 long-distance shots between them, and that's without seeing their normal doses of playing time.
Even if we're all in agreement that averaging 40 attempts is outside the realm of possibility—are we really, though?—keep your eyes on the 2016-17 Rockets.
Some team was always going to break the record average of 32.7, and it's going to be them.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
