Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos hope to have quarterback Trevor Siemian back under center this week when they meet the sliding San Diego Chargers in a Thursday night matchup at Qualcomm Stadium.

Siemian suffered a shoulder injury in Denver's 27-7 Week 4 win in Tampa Bay, sidelining him for last week's 23-16 loss to Atlanta which ended the Broncos' nine-game straight-up win streak.

For the fourth time this season, the Chargers blew a second-half lead en route to a 34-31 defeat in Oakland last weekend. That extended their current SU losing streak to three games, but they covered as 3.5-point underdogs to improve to 7-2 against the spread in their past nine games.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.9-21.4 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

With Siemian back at practice this week the Broncos will likely avoid having to again start rookie passer Paxton Lynch, who looked out of his depth last weekend against the Falcons' 31st-ranked pass defense. Siemian has exceeded expectations in orchestrating the Denver offense, including a four-touchdown performance in a 29-17 Week 3 win over Cincinnati.

However, the Broncos' running game must show dramatic improvement, particularly rusher C.J. Anderson who has averaged well under 4.0 yards per carry in his past four outings. The Broncos get a big lift when Anderson produces, going 16-2 SU in their past 18 games when he rushes for more than 50 yards.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

Generating offense has not been a problem for the Chargers, who sit second in the NFL at 30.4 points per game on the strength of quarterback Philip Rivers' 11 touchdown passes.

The San Diego rush defense will key on Anderson in an effort to keep opposing ball carriers under 100 yards for a sixth straight week.

And most importantly, San Diego must avoid the sloppy mistakes and defensive letdowns that have led to four second-half collapses this season, including a botched fourth-quarter field-goal attempt that cost them a shot at a win over the Raiders a week ago.

Smart pick

Injuries remain a concern for the Broncos. In addition to Siemian, tackle Donald Stephenson and tight end Virgil Green have also been sidelined. Both have been full participants at practice this week, which bodes well for their availability Thursday night.

The high-scoring Chargers are overdue to catch a break but have been a bad bet as home underdogs, winless in four SU and ATS, and have been dominated by the Broncos, who have won nine of 10 meetings SU while going 6-4 ATS.

Look for the Broncos to bounce back with another SU and ATS win over their AFC West rivals.

Betting trends

The Chargers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games against teams with winning records.

The Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games at home.

The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against their division.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.