Stanford vs. Notre Dame: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Heading into the season, Stanford's trip to Notre Dame on Saturday seemed destined to have College Football Playoff implications. Reality had a wildly different idea.
Stanford has dropped two straight games in embarrassing fashion, losing 44-6 on the road at Washington and 42-16 at home against Washington State. The Cardinal are 3-2 on the season.
But the 2016 campaign has been a complete disaster for Notre Dame so far. Brian Kelly's team is 2-4 following a rain-soaked loss to North Carolina State.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Per Odds Shark, the game opened as a pick'em; however, Notre Dame is a three-point favorite as of this writing.
Stanford Keys to Victory
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Protect Ryan Burns
Through three games, Stanford had allowed just four sacks. In the last two contests, the offensive line has surrendered 12.
If that trend continues, the Cardinal still have hope of a rebound because Notre Dame is among the worst teams in the country at pressuring the quarterback. Only three defenses have fewer sacks than the Fighting Irish (3).
Notre Dame's secondary has lost several key pieces due to suspension and injury, so if Burns has time, Stanford should be both productive and efficient through the air.
Get the Defense off the Field
First, the least surprising stat: Stanford's offense is 19-of-39 on third down during three wins and just 8-of-26 in two losses. But the defense has been bad either way.
The Cardinal rank 118th in third-down defense in the nation, allowing a 47.8 percent conversion rate to opponents. On the road, the unit has surrendered 16 first downs in 27 tries, which is horrendous.
Whenever Stanford has DeShone Kizer and the Irish in a third-down situation, it must get a stop.
Notre Dame Keys to Victory
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Don't Be One-Dimensional
Running on Stanford isn't easy, but Notre Dame cannot place the entire burden to win on Kizer's shoulders.
With that being said, the sophomore's running ability will be an important complementary option. Though the Cardinal haven't yet defended a true dual-threat quarterback this season, they allowed 128 yards to Kizer on the ground in 2015.
The Irish must make Stanford respect the zone-read and outside rushing attack. Otherwise, Notre Dame will once again lack the balance it needs to succeed.
Force Field Goals
Stanford has managed an FBS-low eight trips to the red zone in 2016. Even worse for the Cardinal, just four of those possessions have ended in a touchdown.
It's hard to win when you're only kicking field goals.
Notre Dame's defense has allowed points on 19 of 24 red-zone drives, including 15 touchdowns. Both marks are average, but tightening up just a little more inside the 20-yard line should provide the difference in a tight finish.
Stanford Players to Watch
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Christian McCaffrey, Running Back
No surprise, right?
However, while Christian McCaffrey is the driving force of the offense, his status is unknown. The junior exited the loss to Washington State during the second quarter and did not return to the field, though he was on the sideline.
"McCaffrey did get banged up," head coach David Shaw said, according to ESPN.com's David Lombardi. "But there was no reason to put him in late in the game. We just left him out. We'll see how he is during the course of the week."
The Irish are ranked 84th against the run, so if McCaffrey is available, he could be due for another big game.
Solomon Thomas, Defensive Tackle
Despite Stanford's problems, the run defense is still No. 26 nationally. The primary reason is Solomon Thomas, a 6'3", 273-pounder who roams the interior.
He leads the Cardinal with 4.5 tackles for loss and four hurries and also has 2.5 sacks. But Thomas' biggest impact—drawing multiple blockers—is something you don't see in the box score.
If Notre Dame doesn't pick up many yards on inside runs, it's probably because the offensive line is struggling to block Thomas.
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Notre Dame Players to Watch
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Equanimeous St. Brown, Wide Receiver
Prior to the rainstorm in Raleigh, North Carolina, Equanimeous St. Brown hadn't tallied fewer than 75 yards in a game. Regardless, the sophomore has become Kizer's go-to receiver.
St. Brown has collected 27.6 percent of the team's total targets, according to NCAAsavant.com. Overall, the 6'5", 205-pound wideout has accumulated 28 catches, 571 yards and six touchdowns.
However, his impact has dwindled as the game progresses. Per CFBstats, St. Brown has just five receptions in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame will likely need a late impact from its No. 1 receiver.
Nyles Morgan, Middle Linebacker
As a whole—excluding the victory over Nevada—the Irish defense has been mediocre or worse each week. But Nyles Morgan is a flickering bright spot on a unit clouded with questions.
Not only has the junior recorded a team-high 51 stops and two sacks, but he doesn't miss many tackles. Through five games, Morgan has whiffed on only six attempts, per CFB Film Room data.
Stanford's run-first offense will challenge Morgan, regardless of McCaffrey's status. If he's active, though, Morgan must be ready for the toughest test of his starting career.
What They're Saying
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Stanford
During Stanford's sustained run atop the Pac-12, the common theme was an offensive line that would always control the line of scrimmage. That hasn't been the case in 2016, and right tackle David Bright isn't happy about it.
"It hurts to see that right now we're not a physically dominating team," Bright said, per Mark Soltau of the school's official athletics site. "It's a bad feeling. There's no getting around it."
Notre Dame
Weather and field conditions were a nightmare for Notre Dame and North Carolina State last week. Despite the loss, JJ Stankevitz of CSN Chicago noted Kelly was content with how the defense played and wants to see the progress continue against Stanford:
"Regardless of what the field looks like, are your guys doing the things they're asked to do within the structure of the defense—a lot of those things were happening on Saturday. So if you take that away, in other words, if you take the conditions away and you play on a fast-track, our guys are doing the right things defensively. We just need to continue to build on that.
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Prediction
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If McCaffrey is inactive, Notre Dame is the clear favorite. We'll work under the assumption he suits up Saturday night.
Stanford won't allow the Irish to run up the middle consistently, but sweeps and options will be a different story. Kizer and Josh Adams will combine for 160 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
But the major difference—despite a 100-plus-yard performance from McCaffrey—will be the Cardinal's lack of success on third down. Notre Dame will convert more than 60 percent of its attempts, while Stanford finishes with a 35 percent mark on offense.
The Irish will earn their third victory of 2016 and hand the Cardinal their third consecutive loss.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Stanford 27
All recruiting information via Scout. Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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