Ranking Every College Football Conference Heading into Week 7
It’s hard to believe, but we’re nearing the midpoint of the 2016 college football season. Following Saturday's (and, thanks to Hurricane Matthew, Sunday’s) action, we’re through six weeks of gridiron action, and counting the conference championship weekend, eight full weekends remain.
While plenty of action lies ahead, we have enough evidence to make judgment on which teams are contenders and which are pretenders—and, for that matter, which leagues hold more of the former than the latter.
Here’s a look at which conferences are rising to the top as 2016 hits the halfway point and which are falling behind. Overall strength is determined by which teams are thriving not only at the top, but also in the middle and at the bottom of leagues. Agree or disagree? Let us know in the comments.
10. Sun Belt Conference
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The Sun Belt was as affected as any FBS league by the recent round of conference realignment. Realignment’s trickle-down effect led to teams such as Western Kentucky, North Texas, Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee jumping ship for Conference USA. They were replaced by FBS newcomers such as Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State and South Alabama.
The newcomers have had their moments: Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have put scares into multiple ACC and SEC programs, and South Alabama defeated then-No. 19 San Diego State earlier this season, as well as Mississippi State in Starkville. But too often, Sun Belt teams remain on the wrong end of “buy” games for Power Five programs.
Of the 11 Sun Belt programs, only four (Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern and South Alabama) currently have winning records. Troy, which put a scare into Clemson in Death Valley before falling 30-24, is having a resurgent season and leads the Sun Belt at 4-1 and 2-0 in league play. South Alabama is actually 0-2 in league play after losing to Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Lafayette.
Until Sun Belt teams gain a little more consistency, they’ll remain most notable for Tuesday and Wednesday night appearances on the ESPN family of networks gobbled up by football-starved fans.
9. Conference USA
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If you want to know how powerful Conference USA is, a quick comparison of its top teams is instructive. Middle Tennessee leads C-USA’s East Division and has a league-best 4-1 record. The Blue Raiders’ only loss? 47-24 to Vanderbilt, one of the worst teams in the SEC. West Division leader Southern Miss won 44-35 at Kentucky but lost to Sun Belt leader Troy and took a 55-32 beating from Texas-San Antonio Saturday.
Conference USA doesn’t receive a lot of national exposure, but this season’s performances haven’t given the nation much reason to take notice. Western Kentucky and Marshall were excellent last season, combining for 22 wins. But both have taken big steps back this fall with a combined 4-7 record (Marshall is a surprising 1-4).
Three teams (Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss and Old Dominion) are currently above .500. The USA Today Sagarin ratings have C-USA’s divisions roughly on par with the Missouri Valley Conference. That would be the FCS Missouri Valley (home of five-time national champ North Dakota State), for the uninitiated. Ouch.
8. Mid-American Conference
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2016 has been a year of transition for the Mid-American Conference. A year ago, seven MAC teams made bowl games, with Toledo, Akron and Western Michigan picking up postseason victories. At midseason, it’s a bit tougher to see the league getting seven bowl bids again, but the MAC will come close.
2015 title game participants Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have both slipped badly. Bowling Green hasn’t recovered from Dino Babers’ departure, slipping to 1-5 while allowing 77 points to both Ohio State and Memphis. Northern Illinois is 1-5 with a loss to FCS foe Western Illinois.
But other teams have stepped forward. Western Michigan is 6-0 and knocking on the door of the Top 25 with wins over Illinois and Northwestern. Toledo hasn’t missed a beat after Matt Campbell left for Iowa State, going 4-1. And Eastern Michigan, formerly one of the worst teams in the FBS, is 4-2 and thinking about a bowl game.
Midweek MACtion on the ESPN networks will still be fun to watch this fall. Just with some different teams involved. Watching the Broncos chase a potential New Year’s Six bowl bid will be fascinating as well.
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7. Mountain West Conference
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Near the halfway point of 2016, this season feels like a bit of a return to form for the Mountain West. A year ago, league power Boise State had an uncharacteristic down year, slipping to 9-4 and failing to win its own division.
That appears to be an aberration, however. The Broncos are 5-0 and a Top 20 team, and they’ve won four of five games by double digits. The only close call? A 31-28 win over Washington State, which is looking better by the week. Boise has a legit shot at another New Year’s Six bowl bid, but it might have to hold off San Diego State.
The Aztecs are 4-1 with a loss to South Alabama, but they boast a win over Cal and one of the nation’s most exciting tailbacks in senior Donnel Pumphrey. Meanwhile, Hawaii is a surprising 3-2 under new head coach Nick Rolovich, and Craig Bohl’s rebuilding project at Wyoming is showing some dividends with a 4-2 record. In addition, Air Force is rolling along at 4-1, with its only loss coming to Wyoming.
Boise State is the clear class of this league, but depth exists beyond the Broncos’ spotlight.
6. American Athletic Conference
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There are several ways to look at Navy’s surprising 46-40 upset of No. 6 Houston Saturday, a game that shook up the College Football Playoff picture and the next set of Top 25 polls. First, Navy ended any hopes of a "Group of Five" team making the four-team playoff field and also dealt a serious blow to Houston’s hopes of an American Athletic Conference title. Another? Maybe the AAC is better than we originally thought.
Houston established its credentials with a 13-1 2015 season that included a Peach Bowl win over Florida State and burnished them with a season-opening upset of Oklahoma that propelled it into the Top 10. Tom Herman is one of the nation’s hottest coaching prospects, and senior quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is one of the most exciting offensive playmakers.
But the Cougars aren’t the only thing the AAC has going for it. Memphis is right on track despite Justin Fuente’s departure to Virginia Tech, owning a 4-1 record (the only loss at Ole Miss) under new coach Mike Norvell. Navy is 4-1 with a vexing flexbone offense. South Florida is an exciting, underrated program at 5-1 with Willie Taggart at the helm. And following a winless 2015, 3-2 Central Florida is improving rapidly under new coach Scott Frost.
The Cougars are the clear class of the AAC despite the loss, but this is a deep league that is the best Group of Five member.
5. Big 12 Conference
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Two years ago, Baylor and TCU found themselves on the outside looking in when they were passed by Ohio State in the final pre-College Football Playoff rankings for the final playoff spot. This kick-started the Big 12’s movement toward a league championship game and the will-they, won’t-they expansion process.
However, those changes won’t help the Big 12’s playoff hopes this fall. As we reach mid-October, the league appears to be on the outside looking in at the four-team field. Oklahoma made the playoff last fall at 11-1 as the league champion, but it has already lost twice (to Houston and Ohio State) and is a non-factor in that race. In fact, only two league teams (Baylor and West Virginia) remain unbeaten. The Bears are 5-0 but still must face TCU, Texas, Oklahoma and the Mountaineers, who are not considered serious playoff contenders.
Oklahoma State and TCU have each lost two games. OSU lost in controversial fashion to Central Michigan, and the Horned Frogs barely survived Kansas after the Jayhawks missed a late field goal. The league race will be interesting with many evenly matched teams, but none will be playoff-worthy.
4. Pac-12 Conference
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As we near the halfway point of the Pac-12 season, one thing is clear: Washington is the class of the league. Everything else is up for debate. Following two uneven seasons under Chris Petersen, the Huskies have broken out as a national power. Quarterback Jake Browning has thrown for 1,418 yards with 23 touchdowns and two interceptions, and the defense has been excellent, allowing 14.2 points per game (No. 6 nationally). The Huskies are a clear playoff contender and the best team in the league.
Beyond that? Well, who knows? Stanford won three of the last four Pac-12 titles, but something seems wrong with the 3-2 Cardinal, who were blown out 42-16 by Washington State on Saturday. The Cougars have recovered from a loss to Eastern Washington to go 3-2. Arizona State and Utah are both 5-1, making the Pac-12 South race interesting.
But past powers are falling on hard times. Oregon was in the national title game two years ago, but the Ducks are 2-4 after absorbing a 70-21 whipping at Washington’s hands. USC and UCLA are a combined 6-6 and non-factors in the South race. The league has an excellent team in Washington, but after that, it’s a mixed bag.
3. Atlantic Coast Conference
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Through the first two years of the College Football Playoff, two teams have made the playoff unbeaten. They’re both from the ACC—Florida State in 2014 and Clemson in 2015. As we near the midway point, it appears that could be the case again this fall. Despite returning only 11 starters from the national runner-up squad, the Tigers have found their groove. A shaky 30-24 win over Troy raised some eyebrows, but Dabo Swinney’s group took everything Louisville had and emerged with a 42-36 win, one of the best wins for any playoff contender. They’re 6-0 and the clear league favorite after pounding Boston College 56-10 in what Swinney called his team's best effort.
"Really proud of how the guys prepared on a short week, and it was a dominant game," Swinney said, per Dan Hope of the Anderson Independent Mail."Defensively, outside of two or three plays, just a dominant game. ... Offensively, by far our best game. ... And then the same thing in special teams."
Louisville came a few yards short of beating the Tigers, but it still looks like one of the nation’s best teams with a legit shot at squeezing into the playoff if it runs the table. Florida State was expected to challenge for a playoff spot, but at 4-2 with an ugly 63-20 loss to the Cardinals on the resume, the Seminoles are out of the conversation.
Outside of the big three, the league is developing depth. Miami is a blocked extra point from possibly being 5-0 under Mark Richt. Virginia Tech is 4-1 and has new life with first-year coach Justin Fuente. North Carolina is 4-2 with a win in Tallahassee. And even Wake Forest appears to have turned a corner under Dave Clawson with a 5-1 record.
The ACC isn’t the nation’s best league, but it is no longer just Clemson, Florida State and everyone else, either.
2. Big Ten Conference
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Since the College Football Playoff began, we’ve wondered if a league could potentially get two teams into the four-team field. We could have an interesting test case in 2016 with Michigan and Ohio State. The bitter rivals have emerged as two of the best five teams in the nation, head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the league, and their meeting on Nov. 26 will be fascinating to watch.
Michigan has not been challenged in racing to a 6-0 record, outscoring opponents 300-62, including a stunning 78-0 rout of Rutgers. Ohio State has been almost as good, rolling up a 266-54 collective score on its foes with a young, rebuilt roster. Could the loser of their meeting be considered as a one-loss team? Absolutely.
Beyond the big two, Nebraska has been impressive in bolting to a 5-0 start (equaling the amount of regular-season games it won in Mike Riley’s first season). The Huskers and Wisconsin (4-1, with its only loss to Michigan) appear to be the class of the Big Ten West, with Iowa slipping back after a 12-0 2015 regular season. The Hawkeyes have already lost at home to FCS power North Dakota State and Northwestern.
Penn State and Maryland both appear to be improved over 2015, and Michigan State is a surprising 2-3 one year after its College Football Playoff berth. The likes of Illinois and Rutgers weigh the league down, but the Big Ten is deep overall.
1. Southeastern Conference
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In recent years, the Southeastern Conference’s on-field success has created an aura around the league as the best in college football. Winning seven consecutive BCS National Championships helps, although national title wins by Florida State and Ohio State zapped some of the SEC’s swagger.
Alabama restored some of the league’s luster with 2015’s national title run, capped by a thrilling 45-40 win over Clemson. And it would be no surprise to see the Crimson Tide win their fifth title of Nick Saban’s successful run in Tuscaloosa. Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts is a highly capable quarterback in Lane Kiffin’s offense, and tailback Damien Harris and receiver Calvin Ridley are also dangerous offensive pieces. And the Tide’s defense looks as nasty as ever, allowing 15.8 points per game, which is No. 11 nationally.
Texas A&M has cooled the heat under Kevin Sumlin’s seat with a strong 6-0 start, punctuated with a 45-38 double-overtime win over Tennessee, whose late-game high-wire act finally faltered Saturday. The Tide will be tested against the Vols and also against the Aggies, who come to Tuscaloosa on Oct. 22.
Ole Miss, LSU and Auburn make the middle of the SEC West tough, so much so that Les Miles was fired last month with a 2-2 record. Arkansas was the nation’s No. 16 team this week, but the Razorbacks are last in the West with an 0-2 record after losses to A&M and Alabama.
Tennessee is the clear class of the SEC East, with Florida and Georgia fighting for position behind them. South Carolina, Missouri and Vanderbilt are struggling, but the depth at the top of the league gives the SEC the edge as the nation’s top conference overall.
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