College Football Playoff Standings 2016: Week 7 Rankings & Bowl Game Projections
With all due respect to Boise State and Western Michigan on their respective quests for an undefeated season, Houston's Week 6 loss to Navy all but ensured there will once again be no "Group of Five" representative in the College Football Playoff.
In addition to the Cougars blowing their chance to crash the party, the top five teams in the country put on a magnificent display of dominance, winning their games (four of them on the road, no less) by an average margin of 42.6 points.
The primary contributors to that stat were Michigan and Washington. The latter stomped Oregon 70-21, but that barely compared to the Wolverines' 78-0 rampage through Rutgers.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Those squads are also the primary contributors to the debate about the fourth and final spot in the projections for the College Football Playoff, but we'll get there shortly.
Hurricane Matthew forced a couple of games to be delayed until Sunday, subsequently pushing our weekly dose of rankings back by 24 hours to Monday afternoon. But when they were finally released, there weren't too many surprises.
In the AP poll, Alabama remained No. 1 by a comfortable margin after a 19-point road win over Arkansas. Tennessee held firm at No. 9 after an overtime loss at Texas A&M. Miami and Houston dropped out of the Top 10, but they stayed in the Top 20. Stanford, North Carolina and Colorado fell out of the Top 25 and were replaced by Auburn, Western Michigan and Navy.
Enough about the present, though. Let's focus on the future.
We're still a few weeks away from Nov. 1, which will bring the first rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee, but we've got projections for all 40 bowl games—starting with the big ones:
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington |
| Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State |
Though it's irrelevant right now, we had a switcheroo in our Nos. 2 and 3 teams from last week.
With its 56-10 romp over Boston College, Clemson has three true road wins—including a season-opening victory at Auburn that is aging like a fine wine. The Tigers also won at home against Louisville two weeks ago. Ohio State has the best win of the bunch (at Oklahoma), but the overall quality of Clemson's resume has surpassed that of the Buckeyes'.
Having said that, Ohio State plays at Wisconsin this Saturday, and a win would swing the pendulum back in its favor. The Buckeyes also have home games remaining against Nebraska and Michigan, while a road game against Florida State is the only thing left on Clemson's schedule that even resembles a hurdle. If both teams run the table, there's no question Ohio State would have the better resume.
But because the Tigers have had the tougher schedule to this point, we projected Clemson will get to choose its jersey color in the Fiesta Bowl.
Alabama's opponent in the Peach Bowl makes for a more compelling conversation.
We had Houston at No. 4 for the past two weeks, but that scenario went up in flames when Navy upset the Cougars 46-40 in Annapolis. Since Tennessee also took an L in the weekend's big showdown, there are three teams jostling for that final spot.
Texas A&M is one of them, and it's not hard to envision the path that leads to the Aggies competing in a national semifinal.
After a Week 7 bye, they play at Alabama on Oct. 22, followed by games versus New Mexico State, at Mississippi State, versus Ole Miss, versus Texas-San Antonio and versus LSU. Should the Aggies lose to the Crimson Tide before winning the last five, they would be 11-1 with five or six strong wins and the most forgivable loss possible. Though they wouldn't even compete in the SEC Championship Game, the only way that resume isn't one of the four best in the country is if Clemson, Washington and either Ohio State or Michigan all run the table.
For the time being, though, all eyes are on Michigan and Washington.
The Wolverines finally left the friendly confines of Ann Arbor, but if a tree falls in the forest, does a road win over Rutgers make a sound? Granted, their 78-0 win was more impressive than the Huskies' 48-13 home win over Rutgers, but it was clear from the beginning Saturday that the Scarlet Knights were a sacrificial lamb for Jim Harbaugh's guys to slaughter.
Frankly, Washington's 49-point win at Oregon was more impressive, as was its 44-6 win over Stanford the previous week.
The Pac-12, however, is hurting the Huskies' case for the CFP. The Cardinal followed that 38-point loss to Washington with a 26-point loss to Washington State that wasn't even that close. Now that we're left to wonder if Stanford is any good, we also have to ask how impressive Washington's best win actually is.
Unless the Cardinal turn things around in a hurry, and even if the Huskies win every remaining game, who will they have beat? Will they have a better resume than an 11-1 Michigan, Texas A&M or Louisville?
We gave Washington the edge for now, but it will be fascinating to watch this play out over the final two months of the season, per usual.
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 30 | Louisville vs. Wisconsin |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 2 | Texas A&M vs. Baylor |
| Cotton Bowl | Jan. 2 | Boise State vs. Tennessee |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 2 | Michigan vs. Utah |
| Camellia Bowl | Dec. 17 | Toledo vs. Appalachian State |
| Cure Bowl | Dec. 17 | Tulsa vs. South Alabama |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Dec. 17 | USC vs. San Diego State |
| New Mexico Bowl | Dec. 17 | Nevada vs. Louisiana Tech |
| New Orleans Bowl | Dec. 17 | Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Southern |
| Miami Beach Bowl | Dec. 19 | Old Dominion vs. UCF |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Dec. 20 | Akron vs. Memphis |
| Poinsettia Bowl | Dec. 21 | BYU vs. Air Force |
| Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Dec. 22 | Ohio vs. Wyoming |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Dec. 23 | Navy vs. Texas Tech |
| Bahamas Bowl | Dec. 23 | North Texas vs. Central Michigan |
| Dollar General Bowl | Dec. 23 | Troy vs. Western Michigan |
| Hawaii Bowl | Dec. 24 | Eastern Michigan vs. Army |
| Independence Bowl | Dec. 26 | Duke vs. Southern Miss |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Dec. 26 | Minnesota vs. Wake Forest |
| St. Petersburg Bowl | Dec. 26 | Georgia Tech vs. Middle Tennessee |
| Cactus Bowl | Dec. 27 | UCLA vs. Kansas State |
| Heart of Dallas Bowl | Dec. 27 | Texas vs. Purdue |
| Holiday Bowl | Dec. 27 | Stanford vs. Penn State |
| Military Bowl | Dec. 27 | Houston vs. Pittsburgh |
| Foster Farms Bowl | Dec. 28 | Michigan State vs. Washington State |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Dec. 28 | Florida State vs. Indiana |
| Russell Athletic Bowl | Dec. 28 | Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia |
| Texas Bowl | Dec. 28 | Oklahoma State vs. Georgia |
| Alamo Bowl | Dec. 29 | Arizona State vs. Oklahoma |
| Belk Bowl | Dec. 29 | North Carolina vs. Auburn |
| Birmingham Bowl | Dec. 29 | South Florida vs. Mississippi State |
| Arizona Bowl | Dec. 30 | Colorado State vs. Idaho |
| Liberty Bowl | Dec. 30 | TCU vs. Kentucky |
| Music City Bowl | Dec. 30 | Iowa vs. Arkansas |
| Sun Bowl | Dec. 30 | Colorado vs. North Carolina State |
| Citrus Bowl | Dec. 31 | Ole Miss vs. Nebraska |
| TaxSlayer Bowl | Dec. 31 | Miami vs. Florida |
| Outback Bowl | Jan. 2 | Maryland vs. LSU |
Some thoughts on the teams projected for the other 38 bowl games:
—The ripple effect from the Michigan vs. Washington debate is remarkable. With the Huskies projected for the CFP, we're forced to put Utah in the Rose Bowl as the Pac-12's representative—and that's looking more and more like the only possible way the conference gets two teams in the "New Year's Six" games. But if you see the Wolverines as the fourth national semifinalist, the Rose Bowl would be Washington vs. Wisconsin, opening a spot for a team such as Oklahoma or Ole Miss to play in a prestigious game instead of Utah.
—One other big note on the New Year's Six games is that Houston's loss puts Boise State in the driver's seat for the Group of Five's spot. The Cougars would certainly get back in the mix by winning out, but there's a better chance the Broncos get to 12-0—and their early wins over Washington State and Oregon State could increase in value as the season progresses. Road games against Wyoming, Hawaii and Air Force will be no picnic, but Boise State is the team to beat for now.
—With each week, it only gets harder to project 80 bowl-eligible teams. Notre Dame, Oregon, Michigan State and South Carolina did themselves no favors this weekend by remaining at two wins with fewer than four gimmes remaining on their schedules. And we're anything but sold on teams such as Kentucky, Mississippi State, Purdue, Duke and Texas getting to six wins, but someone's got to get there.
—If you're a fan of high-scoring affairs (who isn't?), there are a couple of doozies on this projected docket. The Dollar General Bowl between Troy and Western Michigan would be a race to 50 points, and that might only get us to the end of the third quarter. Likewise, Texas Tech and Navy would light up the scoreboard in the Armed Forces Bowl. This weekend marked the first time the Red Raiders were held under 55 points, and they still put up 38 against Kansas State. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen dropped 46 on what had been one of the best defenses in the country.
—If you prefer betting the under and rooting for a slow grind, look no further than the Arizona Bowl, where Colorado State and Idaho would put two of the worst offenses in the country on the field. The Rams and Vandals are also on the list of teams that may well fail to reach six wins, but we can still dream about that potential snoozefest.
—When the dust clears, look for the Citrus Bowl to be the cream of the non-New Year's Six crop. That one gets first dibs at the SEC and Big Ten teams that haven't already been snatched up for a New Year's Six game, and that means Ole Miss vs. Nebraska. Depending on how things shake out in those conferences, though, the matchup might be even better, such as Texas A&M vs. Wisconsin. The Alamo Bowl will also be a gem, pitting top-tier teams from the Pac-12 and Big 12 against one another.
—Of all the matchups outside of the CFP, the sexiest one might be USC against San Diego State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Separated by barely two hours of Pacific shoreline, one has to imagine the Aztecs would relish the opportunity to take a bite out of the program that has dominated their local airwaves for decades.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
