Phoenix Suns' Complete 2016-17 Preview

Earl Watson's debut as the Phoenix Suns' interim skipper was a seemingly inconspicuous defeat amid a sea of many.

His team dropped a 104-97 loss to the Toronto Raptors on Feb. 2, doomed by a 13-point second quarter and four turnovers from three different starters. What's the significance? It was a step forward from the dreadful efforts Phoenix had been putting forth.

"(The Suns) played as well as they've played for a while," Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters.

Yes, losing by less than double digits was a plus, considering they hadn't done that the previous four contests. Getting 30 points, 11 boards and six assists from Markieff Morris helped bring back a first-round pick for the disgruntled forward at the trade deadline.

That those would qualify as "highlights" sums up last year's Suns. Their 23-59 record—low-lighted by a miserable 2-28 stretch—was compiled by growing pains, injuries, the coaching change and inconsistent efforts at both ends.

A lot of those concerns will carry over to 2016-17. Watson has full rein as head coach now, and Phoenix had a full summer to get healthy, but an inexperienced nucleus needs to find its footing before helping the franchise get back on track.

Biggest Offseason Move

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The Suns spent the previous two summers hopelessly targeting big fish in free agency. They secured meetings with LeBron James' agent and LaMarcus Aldridge but wound up only nabbing Tyson Chandler, who tried recruiting Aldridge and now finds himself stuck in a rebuilding project that doesn't fit the 34-year-old's timeline.

Phoenix took the opposite path this offseason and made its biggest maneuvers on draft night. Following the emergence of All-Rookie first-teamer Devin Booker, the Suns gambled on patience by taking home run swings by acquiring a pair of players taken in the top 10: Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss. Both offer the athleticism, spacing and versatility of modern bigs, albeit in organic granola-raw packages.

"We're fully committed to their development," Suns general manager Ryan McDonough said, per Matthew Bain of the Arizona Republic. "They're two of the youngest players in the draft...so we'll be patient with them. But they have some unique skills, and I think they may be ready to make an impact sooner than some people think."

The Suns—as per usual—also snagged a Kentucky guard, getting SEC Player of the Year Tyler Ulis with the 34th selection. His lack of size (5'9", 160 lbs) is a major question mark, but if it wasn't, he wouldn't have fallen outside the top 10.

The maturation of Booker, Bender and Chriss will determine whether the Suns have assembled their next playoff core or if they'll require another rebuilding effort down the line. To that end, Phoenix smartly invested in locker-room good guys Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa to guide their up-and-comers, while letting Jon Leuer, Mirza Teletovic and Ronnie Price walk in free agency.

Rotation Breakdown

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The Suns are in a transitional phase, and their overlapping roster drives that point home. They're crowded in the backcourt and up front, while the wings run as thin as the 7'1", 225-pound Bender.

That could make building the rotation as uncomfortable as a dental chair, but Watson proactively fought against that. Rather than let position battles linger throughout the preseason, the coach laid out his starting lineup before Phoenix's first exhibition: Eric Bledsoe, Booker, T.J. Warren, Dudley and Chandler.

It's a sensible setup from most angles. Bledsoe is the best player on the roster, Booker is most important for the future and Warren looks like a long-term keeper. Dudley is a sturdy vet and floor-spacing forward, while a healthy Chandler might help strengthen the Suns' 26th-ranked defense.

Noticeably absent from the quintet is Brandon Knight, the second-highest-paid player and second-leading scorer last season. The same Brandon Knight who, despite seeing Booker's rise, said he sees "my role being exactly the same" in April, per Bright Side of the Sun's Dave King.

But this forces Knight into reserve duty, where he'll lead a bench unit rich with upside but light on experience.

PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Eric Bledsoe	Devin Booker	T.J. Warren	Jared Dudley	Tyson Chandler
Brandon Knight	Leandro Barbosa	Dragan Bender	Marquese Chriss	Alex Len
Tyler Ulis	Archie Goodwin	P.J. Tucker	Alan Williams

"(Knight) is the most important player on our team," Watson said, per Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic. "He understands that because he's giving up the most and he's also the most impactful. The things he will be able to do to propel us at all times throughout the game gives us firepower that I don't think a lot of teams can match."

That's the optimistic view. It's also assuming Knight decides to play nice in a role he may feel is beneath him, and that the youngsters around him provide sufficient support.

With P.J. Tucker sidelined by back surgery, Bender and Chriss should get the lion's share of reserve forward minutes. Seniority won't keep Barbosa ahead of the youngsters, but his quick-hit scoring skills should. This will be a prove-it season for Archie Goodwin and Alex Len, both of whom have sputtered to start their careers. 

Reasons for Confidence

The Suns haven't had an All-Star since they shipped out Steve Nash after 2011-12. Booker faces an uphill battle to crack the crowded Western Conference backcourt, but he's the franchise's best bet. Last season Booker became the fourth-youngest NBA player to score 1,000 points, following only Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Durant. He didn't average 20 minutes per game until January and still paced the rookie class with six 30-point outings.

"I think he's fantastic," Bryant said last season, per Coro. "I think he has the right attitude. He has the right competitive spirit."

As a 6'6" sniper, Booker has drawn countless comparisons to Golden State Warriors All-Star sharpshooter Klay Thompson, who counts himself among Booker's growing fanbase. That doesn't mean Booker will become a Thompson clone, but it's easy to spot the similarities of their freshmen efforts.

Booker couldn't match Thompson's efficiency, but the former didn't enter the same situation. While Thompson found his offense after Stephen Curry and David Lee took their shots, Booker ended his rookie year as a No. 1 option. Maybe that hastens his growth as more than a spot-up sniper—Thompson's All-Star leap didn't happen until he developed as a defender and expanded his off-the-dribble game.

Booker has the blueprint to traverse a similar path. Or perhaps climb even higher.

Reasons for Concern

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This roster is woefully short on in-prime players. That's probably a good thing for the overall rebuild, but it won't help the Suns escape the cellar this season.

Age-wise, Bledsoe (26) should be nearing his peak, but that's tough to tell since he's missed at least 39 games in two of the past three seasons. Knight falls under the same umbrella, having had consecutive campaigns derailed by injury and failing to prove himself as more than a volume contributor.

If this is the best Bledsoe and Knight can provide, neither can be a primary option on a playoff participant.

The Suns were 8.3 points better per 100 possessions without Chandler last season, per NBA.com, and reversing that trend won't be easy amid his fight with Father Time. Barbosa (33) and Dudley (31) are entering their twilight years. The rest of the roster is at the other end of the spectrum, still fleshing out their big-league identities.

Phoenix has precious few certainties and a mountain of questions. Complicating everything, some of the Suns' most pivotal pieces share the same positions. 

"Both Bender and Chriss profile best at power forward," King wrote. "Couple the PF logjam with the perennial point guard logjam and the Suns roster is still a mishmash of duplicative talent."

Predictions

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Wins and losses won't be the grading metric this year; progress will be limited to flashes of brilliance from the youngsters. 

The Suns could get healthy seasons from Bledsoe and Knight, a turn-back-the-clock effort from Chandler, a collective push forward from the prospects and still fall short of the postseason party.

A low-40s win total would qualify as a worst-case scenario. Better for Phoenix to endure more growing pains, balance the roster by flipping vets for future assets and position itself for a high selection in what looks like a strong draft.

Ideally, the Suns see Booker spread his wings, Bender and Chriss find a rhythm together, and Knight embrace his new reserve role. If we're going glass-full, add Len leapfrogging Chandler and Goodwin surpassing Barbosa to the wish list.

Just like last season, Phoenix's high points will mostly be hit during losses. As long as there's growth along the way—from the players and the 37-year-old Watson—this could be a valuable stepping stone on the long road back to relevance.

• Final Record: 27-55
• Division Standing: 4th in Pacific
• Playoff Berth: No
• B/R Leaguewide Power Rankings Prediction: 28th

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.