Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Apparently, the Chicago Bears need points and lots of them to cover spreads. Even with their win over Detroit last week as home dogs, the Bears are just 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games as underdogs getting five points or fewer. That's exactly what they're getting for their short trip down the road to take on the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday.

Point spread: The Colts opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.6-20.7, Colts (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Following a pair of lackluster losses with Jay Cutler at quarterback to begin this season, the Bears are now 1-1 with Brian Hoyer as their starter after defeating Detroit last week, 17-14.

Chicago took an early lead on a Hoyer-to-Eddie Royal touchdown midway through the first quarter, pushed that advantage to 17-6 early in the fourth, let the Lions get within three points on a punt-return touchdown with just under two minutes to go but recovered an onside kick and ran out the clock to preserve the win.

For the day, Chicago outgained Detroit, 408-263; outrushed the Lions, 114-66; and won time of possession by a 33-27 margin. Hoyer finished with 28 completions in 36 attempts for 302 yards and two touchdowns, and most importantly, he had zero interceptions. Meanwhile, rookie running back Jordan Howard, in his first NFL start, ran 23 times for 111 yards.

So that's one in a row. How about two?

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The case for the Colts is a little tougher to make. Like Chicago, Indianapolis is 1-3 on the season, following a 30-27 loss to Jacksonville in London last week.

The Colts fell behind the Jaguars by a touchdown seven minutes into the game, then trailed 23-6 after three quarters. They then rallied for three scores to pull within a field goal with three minutes to go and later moved the ball close to midfield before running out of downs.

Prior to last week, Indianapolis had been in every game. The Colts rallied to lead Detroit late in the season opener before losing on a field goal with four seconds left. They only trailed at Denver by one score and had the ball late, until a turnover turned into a Broncos touchdown. And they beat San Diego. With a good play here and there, Indianapolis could have been 2-2.

The brightest spot for the Colts right now is probably 43-year-old kicker Adam Vinatieri, who made a pair of long field goals last week to extend his streak to 33 in a row.

Smart pick

Indianapolis seems lost at the moment and must now play with the pressure that comes with increased heat on the coach's seat. Chicago, meanwhile, might be a better team without Cutler, and may have found a ground game last week. The smart bet here backs the Bears.

Betting trends

The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Colts.

The total has gone under in 11 of the Colts' last 15 games as a favorite.

The Bears are 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of five points or less.

All NFL betting lines and point-spread data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes were gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.