Michigan vs. Rutgers: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
For the first time in the 2016 season, the Michigan Wolverines are hitting the road. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will host the fourth-ranked team in the nation.
Michigan (5-0) navigated its home slate unblemished, punctuated by a 14-7 victory over then-No. 8 Wisconsin. The defense—which is currently No. 5 in the country—forced more punts (nine) than it allowed first downs (eight).
Rutgers (2-3) must overcome the dominant unit in order to spring a massive upset. After losing to Ohio State 58-0, though, the Knights offense hasn't inspired much confidence.
According to Odds Shark, the Wolverines opened as 26.5-point favorites. ESPN2 will televise the Big Ten clash, which is scheduled for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff.
Michigan Keys to Victory
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Protect the Ball
For a four-touchdown favorite to lose, there must be a perfect storm of mistakes. If Michigan avoids turnovers, the storm won't develop.
And there's plenty of reason to suggest the Wolverines will protect the football. Heading into Week 6, they've ceded possession just three times—and quarterback Wilton Speight has thrown just one interception since his first pass of the season.
Michigan doesn't need to change its offensive game plan or style. What's worked so far should continue being successful at Rutgers.
Pressure, Pressure, Pressure
Saturday could be a miserable night for Rutgers quarterback Chris Laviano. The Knights have allowed 11 sacks this season, including a total of seven against Iowa and Ohio State.
Michigan, under first-year defensive coordinator Don Brown, often brings extra pressure. Only Florida has tallied as many sacks as the Wolverines (19) against Football Bowl Subdivision competition.
Don't be surprised if each of Chris Wormley, Taco Charlton, Maurice Hurst, Jabrill Peppers and Mike McCray find the stat sheet.
Rutgers Keys to Victory
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Rapid Separation from Coverage
For the Scarlet Knights to win, the offense must be balanced. That's infinitely easier said than done against Michigan. Ohio State held Rutgers to 74 rushing yards on 38 carries, and the Wolverines are capable of limiting the Knights to similar numbers.
Consequently, the burden to succeed on offense will be dropped onto the receiving corps—one that somehow needs to fill the void of leading target Janarion Grant, who is out for the season.
The pass-catchers need to separate quickly from the press-man coverage. Otherwise, it'll be a painful three-plus hours for Laviano.
Force Turnovers, Then Score Seven
Rutgers simply isn't going to outplay Michigan straight up. Forcing a couple of turnovers is crucial, but keeping the Wolverines off the board is only half the battle.
If the Knights swipe a few extra possessions, they must capitalize on the takeaways with touchdowns, not field goals.
Unless turnovers become touchdowns, the ensuing drive is a failure—at least from a win-loss perspective.
Michigan Players to Watch
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De'Veon Smith, Running Back
Per Nick Baumgardner of MLive, head coach Jim Harbaugh said left tackle Grant Newsome will be sidelined for the season with a "serious knee injury." De'Veon Smith will be running behind a new-look line, and the change may be most noticeable on toss sweeps.
Instead of Newsome sealing the edge, somebody else will lead Smith and his fellow backs to the corner. From left tackle to center, Michigan has three likely options moving forward:
- Juwann Bushell-Beatty, Ben Braden and Mason Cole
- Braden, Ben Bredeson and Cole
- Cole, Braden and Patrick Kugler
Smith's workload has steadily increased along with the rising competition. His production shouldn't change much behind a new starter, but Saturday provides the first look at the Newsome-less rushing attack.
Ryan Glasgow, Defensive Tackle
A total of 14 defenders have recorded a tackle for loss for the Wolverines. You need to scan 10 spots on the list—where you'll see Peppers, Rashan Gary and Wormley, among others—before reaching Ryan Glasgow at 1.5 on the season.
But the senior has been dominant in the middle of the line. Opposing offenses simply cannot run the ball at Glasgow.
Rutgers will try to establish itself on the ground early in the game, but Glasgow—especially if Bryan Mone remains limited—will be an important part of stopping the Knights before they get started.
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Rutgers Players to Watch
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Chris Laviano, Quarterback
Despite playing from behind for the entire game at Ohio State, Rutgers totaled 33 yards through the air. Laviano completed just three of 12 passes, while Tylin Oden misfired on each of his four attempts.
Michigan's secondary presents an equally difficult task, and the front seven only creates more havoc and pressure. Laviano will be forced into rushed decisions—and perhaps more often than not.
In last season's matchup, Laviano managed an 11-of-26 mark for 97 yards and threw an interception. How will the junior respond to the challenge this time around?
Kiy Hester, Safety
Whenever the front seven allows a crease, Kiy Hester should be there to clean up the mess. The sophomore safety has a team-high 36 tackles, including back-to-back games with double-digit stops.
Hester—a transfer from Miami—has a nose for the backfield, too. He's notched at least one tackle for loss in four of five games this year.
Containing the Wolverines will be a complete team effort, but Hester's name should pop up the most.
What They're Saying
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Michigan
Although the Wolverines are heavy favorites, Harbaugh wants to make sure nobody discounts the Knights—particularly because their head coach, Chris Ash, had great success stopping Michigan in 2015.
"New coach who coordinated the Ohio State defense last year and shut us down," Harbaugh said on Inside Michigan Football (h/t Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press). "We're getting prepared, we're treating it like a championship game, a big game."
Rutgers
J.P. Pelzman of the Asbury Park Press noted Ash said Rutgers struggled with Ohio State's press-man coverage. The Knights better improve quickly, because Michigan utilizes the same philosophy.
"They smothered us," Ash said. "They pressed us whenever they could. We struggled to get open, and that's been a problem for us against teams that press us. We have to work on that. We have to find solutions to get that done."
Prediction
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In 2015, Michigan struggled during the opening half of its first Big Ten road game. History won't repeat itself in Piscataway, New Jersey.
Laviano won't be able to handle constant pressure from the Wolverines, who will keep Rutgers below 200 offensive yards on the day. Without Grant, the receiving corps has no major threats to counter Jourdan Lewis, Channing Stribling and the Michigan secondary, which is ranked second nationally.
On the other side of the ball, Speight will continue to impress in a balanced effort. Led by the sophomore and Smith, the Maize and Blue will top 200 yards both through the air and on the ground during a dominant win.
The Wolverines will improve to 6-0 heading into their bye week of the season, and Rutgers will fall to 2-4.
Prediction: Michigan 45, Rutgers 7
All recruiting information via Scout.com. Stats from CFBStats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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