College Football Playoff Standings 2016: Week 6 Rankings & Bowl Game Projections
Alabama and Ohio State further solidified themselves as the favorites to battle for the national championship, but Week 5 of the college football season was otherwise chaotic, as usual.
Three battles between Top 10 teams resulted in a trio of losses for teams that were previously projected for a New Year's Six bowl game. Tennessee played its way into one of those games with a game-winning Hail Mary, while Florida State's hopes of getting invited to a marquee bowl may have been dashed to bits by a 54-yard field goal.
In advance of Saturday's big showdown with Miami, the Seminoles had the most brutal week in the polls, dropping 11 spots to No. 23 in the Associated Press Top 25 and falling from No. 12 to No. 21 in the Amway Coaches Poll.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
But let's look past those Week 6 rankings to forecast who will rank where two months from now.
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee won't release its first official rankings until Nov. 1, but we have another batch of projections for both of the national semifinals, as well as the other 38 bowl games that will take place this winter.
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Houston |
| Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson |
The top four remains unchanged from last week, but the results of Wisconsin vs. Michigan, Louisville vs. Clemson and Stanford vs. Washington necessitated a shake-up among the teams that are waiting in the wings.
Washington was the biggest mover of the week, but that's to be expected after the Huskies dismantled the Cardinal 44-6. Washington wasn't even projected for a New Year's Six game last week, but it is now pounding on the door of the CFP.
Will anyone in the Pac-12 help out the Huskies, though? Saturday's win will be impossible to ignore if Stanford can right the ship to get back into the Top 10, but the No. 15 Cardinal are the only other Top 20 team in the conference. Washington doesn't have anywhere near the remaining opportunities to impress the selection committee that Houston (vs. Louisville) and Michigan (at Ohio State) have.
The Wolverines remain a strong candidate for the fourth spot in the semifinals after their 14-7 win over Wisconsin, but we have yet to see them play on the road, and the final stretch of their season (at Michigan State, vs. Maryland, at Iowa, vs. Indiana, at Ohio State) is loaded with potential land mines.
Unfortunately for both Michigan and Louisville, getting to their respective conference championship games is more than an uphill battle. A loss at Ohio State in the regular-season finale would almost certainly keep the Wolverines from winning the Big Ten East, just as the Cardinals need a miracle to win the ACC's Atlantic Division after falling 42-36 at Clemson Saturday night.
Could the selection committee justify taking a second team from either the ACC or Big Ten that doesn't even play in its conference championship game?
That's why we're sticking with Houston in that fourth spot until further notice. The Cougars already have a marquee win over Oklahoma and get another big opportunity against Louisville in six weeks. Provided they can get past this weekend's road game against Navy, it should be smooth sailing until mid-November.
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 30 | Louisville vs. Tennessee |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 2 | Baylor vs. Texas A&M |
| Cotton Bowl | Jan. 2 | Miami vs. Wisconsin |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 2 | Michigan vs. Washington |
| Camellia Bowl | Dec. 17 | Western Michigan vs. Troy |
| Cure Bowl | Dec. 17 | Army vs. Louisiana-Lafayette |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Dec. 17 | Arizona State vs. Boise State |
| New Mexico Bowl | Dec. 17 | Air Force vs. Louisiana Tech |
| New Orleans Bowl | Dec. 17 | Georgia Southern vs. Middle Tennessee |
| Miami Beach Bowl | Dec. 19 | Ohio vs. Tulsa |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Dec. 20 | Temple vs. North Texas |
| Poinsettia Bowl | Dec. 21 | BYU vs. San Diego State |
| Famous Idaho Bowl | Dec. 22 | Akron vs. Wyoming |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Dec. 23 | Texas vs. Navy |
| Bahamas Bowl | Dec. 23 | Southern Miss vs. Central Michigan |
| Dollar General Bowl | Dec. 23 | Toledo vs. Appalachian State |
| Hawaii Bowl | Dec. 24 | USC vs. Eastern Michigan |
| Independence Bowl | Dec. 26 | Texas Tech vs. Washington State |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Dec. 26 | Penn State vs. North Carolina State |
| St. Petersburg Bowl | Dec. 26 | Cincinnati vs. Boston College |
| Cactus Bowl | Dec. 27 | California vs. Kansas State |
| Heat of Dallas Bowl | Dec. 27 | Minnesota vs. Western Kentucky |
| Holiday Bowl | Dec. 27 | Colorado vs. Maryland |
| Military Bowl | Dec. 27 | Pittsburgh vs. South Florida |
| Foster Farms Bowl | Dec. 28 | Iowa vs. Utah |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Dec. 28 | Indiana vs. Georgia Tech |
| Russell Athletic Bowl | Dec. 28 | Oklahoma vs. North Carolina |
| Texas Bowl | Dec. 28 | Auburn vs. Oklahoma State |
| Alamo Bowl | Dec. 29 | Stanford vs. West Virginia |
| Belk Bowl | Dec. 29 | LSU vs. Wake Forest |
| Birmingham Bowl | Dec. 29 | Memphis vs. South Carolina |
| Arizona Bowl | Dec. 30 | New Mexico vs. South Alabama |
| Liberty Bowl | Dec. 30 | Kentucky vs. TCU |
| Music City Bowl | Dec. 30 | Georgia vs. Notre Dame |
| Sun Bowl | Dec. 31 | UCLA vs. Florida State |
| Citrus Bowl | Dec. 31 | Ole Miss vs. Nebraska |
| TaxSlayer Bowl | Dec. 31 | Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech |
| Outback Bowl | Jan. 2 | Florida vs. Michigan State |
Some thoughts on the teams projected for the other 38 bowl games:
— Goodbye, Florida State, TCU and Stanford. Hello, Washington, Miami and Tennessee. While the CFP projections remain unchanged, there was a ton of shake-up in the other four New Year's Six games. And more is guaranteed next week with Texas A&M and Tennessee squaring off for the right to become the undisputed second-best team in the SEC. Between Miami hosting Florida State and North Carolina drawing Virginia Tech, the ACC's deck might also be headed for some serious shuffling.
— It's already getting tough to forecast 80 teams winning at least six games to become bowl eligible. And with three SEC teams currently projected for New Year's Six games, there's little to no hope of the conference producing enough teams to fulfill its various bowl tie-ins. Kentucky and South Carolina are both stretches to win four more games, but we're keeping them in the mix for the time being.
— Among the non-New Year's Six games, four of the projected pairings jump off the page as exceptional matchups: Oklahoma vs. North Carolina in the Russell Athletic Bowl, Georgia vs. Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl, UCLA vs. Florida State in the Sun Bowl and Ole Miss vs. Nebraska in the Citrus Bowl. If for some bizarre reason we were only allowed to watch one, though, it would probably have to be the Music City Bowl. Neither Georgia nor Notre Dame is currently ranked, but Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer and Bulldogs running back Nick Chubb might combine for 12 touchdowns in that defense-optional brawl.
— How about BYU barely pulling out the Friday night home win over Toledo? The Cougars have yet to play in a game decided by a margin of more than three points, but that might change when they travel to East Lansing to face the Spartans this Saturday. They still need four wins to qualify for the Poinsettia Bowl, but eking out that W over the Rockets gives them a great chance to get there.
— Speaking of the Spartans, we're still trying to wrap our heads around that 24-21 overtime loss to Indiana. Is it possible Michigan State isn't any good this year? The win over Notre Dame has already lost most of its luster with the Fighting Irish sitting at 2-3. It's also worth noting the season opener against Furman—one of just three 0-5 teams in FCS—was a bit too close for comfort. The Spartans need to make a statement against BYU this week if they expect us to believe they can bounce back from this 0-2 start to B1G play.
— Last and trending toward least, Iowa lost at home to Northwestern, struggling for a third consecutive week. The Hawkeyes are now 3-2, but with the way they've been playing, there's not a gimme left on their schedule. They have home games against Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, as well as road games against Minnesota, Purdue, Penn State and Illinois. They should beat the Boilermakers and the Fighting Illini, but they also should have beaten Northwestern, so who knows? This weekend's game against the Golden Gophers might be the one that determines whether head coach Kirk Ferentz is even able to turn his new massive contract into a bowl game.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
